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Fixed Broadband Wireless

2001-2006

a market research report

Report Excerpt

Market Segmentation

Table of Contents

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In these uncertain times, one wonders how much of a future there is for emerging markets like fixed broadband wireless (FBW). Despite the macroeconomic trends affecting the telecom industry, the demand for high-speed access remains insatiable.

FBW has notable advantages over competing access technologies, such as rapid deployment intervals at a low cost. To the extent that FBW can approach parity with DSL and cable modem technologies, or even surpass them from a price/performance perspective, FBW markets could experience 
phenomenal growth.

But establishing brand equity within increasingly crowded markets––in the face of tight credit––will be a challenge. How will you succeed? Learn where the opportunities and pitfalls lie.

Fixed Broadband Wireless analyzes market drivers, regulatory trends, economic constraints and network deployment plans, building a bottom-up forecasting model to accurately predict service revenue and network infrastructure spending. Over 100 service provider and operator profiles offer a succinct source for competitive intelligence.

 


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    Report Excerpt

    Background

    In these difficult economic times, one may wonder how much of a future there is for emerging markets like fixed broadband wireless (FBW).  Investors have recently developed a distaste for risky, capital-intensive businesses, especially in the communications sector.  Basically, the priorities of investors have changed.  No longer is quickly establishing a presence in multiple markets the top priority.  Today, showing earnings growth on a quarter-by-quarter basis takes higher priority.

    Like the rest of the telecommunications industry, the FBW industry will be affected by these macroeconomic trends.  However, at the end of the day, subscriber demand remains for always-on, high-speed network access.  In our simple catechism, communication network subscriber demand for information-intensive applications drives demand at all levels of the supply chain:

    • Subscriber demand for information-intensive applications drives

    • Demand for high-speed access and transport services drives

    • Demand for increased network capacity drives

    • Demand for network infrastructure (including FBW) drives

    • Demand for underlying technologies and components.

    FBW industry demand is driven from the top down, while supply is enabled from the bottom up.  Currently, the demand for high-speed access to communication networks is considered to be insatiable.  In the near-term this is definitely the case; but over the longer term the supply of broadband network capacity is expected catch up with (and eventually exceed) the demand in some parts of North America.  Assuming this eventuality comes to pass, those broadband access technologies that have a demonstrated price/performance superiority will survive—and that is where FBW has notable advantages.  For example: 

    • T-1 is expensive and requires lengthy installation intervals;

    • Fiber is extremely expensive to deploy, which has severely limited its potential as a widely available network access solution;

    • Digital subscriber line (DSL) is typically available only within 18,000 feet of a telephone company central office and is subject to quality limitations associated with aging telephone company copper access infrastructure;

    • Cable TV systems capable of supporting two-way data communication services are limited in terms of upstream information-carrying capacity and by the fact that very few systems have been deployed in areas serving enterprise subscribers; and

    • Two-way satellite-based services are subject to latency constraints and are extremely limited in terms of throughput.

    In addition to the disadvantages of the other access methods, FBW solutions have some inherent strengths of their own:

    • Low deployment costs;

    • Rapid deployment intervals;

    • Easily re-deployable network infrastructure;

    • Easily deployable in harsh environments;

    • Low maintenance and troubleshooting expenses;

    • High reliability;

    • Demand-based deployment (pay as you grow);

    • Ownership and control over the network; and

    • Excellent back-up or temporary network solution.

    Growth to date in the FBW segment has been predicated upon ready access to capital and a strong stock market.  During the early years of FBW industry existence, the prevailing network operator strategy was to establish a presence and quickly acquire building access rights in as many markets as possible.  In the process, maximizing subscriber take-up in any occupied territory was a secondary concern.  This land-grab strategy has been very expensive in terms of market development costs, and is largely responsible for the losses tallied by FBW network operators.  If the current economic downturn becomes a full-scale recession, much of what the FBW segment has already been able to achieve will end up underwater.

    The rapid expansion strategy also adversely impacted FBW infrastructure providers’ financial performance, as initial network deployments in most markets seldom amounted to more than a few minimally-configured systems, which the infrastructure provider often sold at (or below) cost in order to win the business and secure future incremental sales.  Other factors contributing to the red ink being generated by both FBW infrastructure providers and network operators include:

    • Delay in the availability of economically-viable point-to-multipoint (PMP) FBW infrastructure has limited the ability of FBW network operators to thoroughly blanket penetrated markets.

    • FBW customer premises equipment (CPE) costs, while declining steadily, have remained above the threshold of economic viability for most North American FBW network operators.  High CPE costs, in combination with strong market pressure to mitigate non-recurring charges, have delayed mass network deployments and squeezed profit margins.

    • Installation and CPE costs, often waived or drastically reduced in order to attract subscribers, are seldom (if ever) fully recovered from non-recurring charges to subscribers.

    While some of the FBW carriers and vendors are better off than the data local exchange carriers (DLECs) like Covad Communications, Rhythms NetConnections, and NorthPoint, they are not immune to the same credit squeeze affecting the general industry.  As noted in TheStreet.com’s “Debt Comes Knocking at Telecom’s Door” (March 25, 2001), Teligent, WinStar, and XO Communications face debt payments that in many cases exceed their cash flow.  These companies then need additional loans to cover their expenses.  However, banks and other investors are now anxious to reduce their exposure to the riskier ventures, making it difficult for many companies to survive. 

    To the extent that FBW can approach parity with DSL and cable modem technologies—or even surpass them from a price/performance perspective—FBW markets could experience phenomenal growth.  The challenge facing industry executives in establishing FBW as the broadband access conduit of choice is primarily marketing-related.  Establishing brand equity within increasingly crowded markets—and doing it in the face of tight credit—will be the key to success. 

    The Market 

    The purpose of this research report is to analyze the operating environment, technologies, market dynamics, and projected evolution associated with two emerging markets within the North American FBW industry—the FBW infrastructure market and the FBW services market. 

    The North American FBW infrastructure market includes Canadian and US deployment of fixed broadband wireless network access systems, as well as the FBW transport links used to interconnect FBW access system elements and connect these elements with core communication networks.  The FBW infrastructure market consists of systems operating in three segments:

    • Unlicensed spectrum;

    • Licensed microwave spectrum (<11 GHz); and

    • Licensed millimeter wave spectrum (>11 GHz).

    Information pertaining to FBW infrastructure provider and network operator offerings was obtained from both primary and secondary sources.  Primary research was conducted through personal interviews with executive-level representatives from over 40 FBW infrastructure providers and network operators, and from Insight Research surveys.

    FBW market forecasts were derived from a forecasting model developed specifically for this report.  FBW infrastructure, subscriber unit, and revenue projections are based upon synthesized input from over 100 FBW infrastructure providers and FBW network operators regarding FBW subscriber growth forecasts and network deployment plans.


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    Market Segmentation

     

    • FBW Infrastructure Unit Shipments and Revenue by Equipment Type
      • Unlicensed FBW Infrastructure
        • CPTP Access Links
        • PMP Base Stations
        • PMP Remotes
        • PTP Transport Links
      • <11 GHz FBW Infrastructure
        • CPTP Access Links
        • PMP Base Stations
        • PMP Remotes
        • PTP Transport Links
      • >11 GHz FBW Infrastructure
        • CPTP Access Links
        • PMP Base Stations
        • PMP Remotes
        • PTP Transport Links


    • CPTP Access Link Unit Shipments and Revenue by Frequency Segment

    • PMP Base Station Shipments and Revenue by Frequency Segment

    • PMP Remote Unit Shipments and Unit Revenue by Frequency Segment

    • Transport Link Unit Shipments and Revenue by Frequency Segment

    • FBW Subscribers and Service Revenue by Subscriber Type


      • Unlicensed Subscribers
        • Small/Medium Enterprise (SME) Subscribers
        • SOHO/Telecom Subscribers
        • Consumer Subscribers
      • <11 GHz Subscribers
        • SME Subscribers
        • SOHO/Telecom Subscribers
        • Consumer Subscribers
      • >11 GHz Subscribers
        • SME Subscribers
        • SOHO/Telecom Subscribers
        • Consumer Subscribers

    • FBW by Frequency Type
      • Enterprise Revenue
      • Consumer Revenue
      • Unlicensed
      • <11 GHz
      • >11 GHz

    • Broadband Subscribers by Access and Customer Type
      • Homes vs. SME
        • Traditional (T-1, Fiber, ISDN)
        • DSL
        • Cable Modem
        • FBW


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    Table of Contents

     

    Chapter I
    EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
    1.1 Background

    1.2  The Market
    1.2.1 Infrastructure Outlook
    1.2.2 Services Outlook

    Chapter II
    OVERVIEW

    2.1 Report Introduction
    2.1.1 Report Objectives
    2.1.2 Report Scope
    2.1.3 Research Methodology
    2.1.4 Report Structure
    2.2 Communication Network Overview
    2.2.1 Public Communication Network Architecture
    2.2.2 Broadband Communication Services
    2.2.3 Fixed Broadband Wireless Communication
    2.2.4 Wireless Communication Concepts and Terminology
    2.2.4.1 Spectrum Management
    2.2.4.2 Operating Frequencies
    2.2.4.3 Communication Bandwidth
    2.2.4.4 Information-Carrying Capacity
    2.2.4.5 Carrier Signal
    2.2.4.6 Carrier Signal Modulation
    2.2.4.7 Interference
    2.2.4.8 Access Sharing
    2.2.4.9 Duplexing
    2.2.4.10 Bandwidth Management
    2.2.4.11 Spectral Efficiency
    2.2.4.12 FBW System Architectures
    2.2.4.13 Coverage Area or Range
    2.2.4.14 FBW Subscriber Communication Services

    Chapter III
    FBW TECHNOLOGY OVERVIEW

    3.1 North American FBW Spectrum
    3.1.1 North American FBW Spectrum Management
    3.1.2 North American FBW Spectrum Allocations
    3.1.2.1 Unlicensed Spectrum
    3.1.2.2 Licensed Microwave Spectrum (<11 GHz
    3.1.2.3 Licensed Millimeter Wave Spectrum (>11 GHz
    3.2 FBW Network Architectures and Attributes
    3.2.1 FBW Network Architectures
    3.2.1.1 Point-To-Point FBW Architecture
    3.2.1.2 Consecutive Point-To-Point FBW Architecture
    3.2.1.3 Point-To-Multipoint FBW Architecture
    3.2.1.4 Mesh FBW Architecture
    3.2.2 PMP FBW System Attributes
    3.3 FBW Network Design Considerations:  An Outline
    3.3.1 Subscriber Base Attributes
    3.3.2 FBW Service Area Attributes
    3.3.3 Market Considerations
    3.3.4 Technical Considerations
    3.3.5 FBW System Considerations
    3.3.6 Financial Considerations

    Chapter IV
    NORTH AMERICAN FBW INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

    4.1 North American FBW Industry Overview
    4.1.1 The FBW Industry Operating Environment
    4.1.2 The FBW Industry
    4.1.3 Challenges and Opportunities in the Face of Uncertainty
    4.2 North American FBW Infrastructure Market Analysis
    4.2.1 General Infrastructure Market
    4.2.1.1 Demand for FBW Infrastructure
    4.2.1.2 Supply of FBW Infrastructure
    4.2.1.3 Impediments to Success in the Infrastructure Market
    4.2.1.4 Critical Success Factors in the Infrastructure Market
    4.2.2 Unlicensed FBW Infrastructure Segment Analysis
    4.2.2.1 Demand for Unlicensed FBW Infrastructure
    4.2.2.2 Supply of Unlicensed FBW Infrastructure
    4.2.2.3 Impediments to Success
    4.2.2.4 Critical Success Factors
    4.2.3 Licensed <11 GHz FBW Infrastructure Segment Analysis
    4.2.3.1 Demand for <11 GHz Licensed FBW Infrastructure
    4.2.3.2 Supply of <11 GHz Licensed FBW Infrastructure
    4.2.3.3 Impediments to Success
    4.2.3.4 Critical Success Factors
    4.2.4 Licensed >11 GHz FBW Infrastructure Segment Analysis
    4.2.4.1 Demand for >11 GHz Licensed FBW Infrastructure
    4.2.4.2 Supply of >11 GHz Licensed FBW Infrastructure
    4.2.4.3 Impediments to Success
    4.2.4.4 Critical Success Factors
    4.2.5 FBW Infrastructure Provider Profiles
    4.3 North American FBW Services Market Analysis
    4.3.1 General FBW Communication Services Market
    4.3.1.1 Demand for FBW Communication Services
    4.3.1.2 Supply of FBW Communication Services
    4.3.1.3 Impediments to Success in the FBW Services Market
    4.3.1.4 Critical Success Factors in the FBW Services Market
    4.3.2 Consumer Segment Analysis
    4.3.2.1 Demand for FBW Services in the Consumer Segment
    4.3.2.2 Supply of FBW Services in the Consumer Segment
    4.3.2.3 Impediments to Success in the Consumer Segment
    4.3.2.4 Critical Success Factors in the Consumer Segment
    4.3.3 Enterprise Segment Analysis
    4.3.3.1 Demand for FBW Services in the Enterprise Segment
    4.3.3.2 Supply of FBW Services in the Enterprise Segment
    4.3.3.3 Impediments to Success in the Enterprise Segment
    4.3.3.4 Critical Success Factors in the Enterprise Segment
    4.3.4 FBW Network Operator Profiles

    Chapter V
    PROJECTED NORTH AMERICAN FBW INDUSTRY EVOLUTION

    5.1 Evolution of the Global Economy
    5.2 Communications Industry Evolution
    5.3 Evolution of the North American FBW Industry
    5.4 North American FBW Infrastructure Market Evolution
    5.4.1 Unlicensed FBW Infrastructure Segment Evolution
    5.4.1.1 Demand
    5.4.1.2 Supply
    5.4.2 Licensed <11 GHz FBW Infrastructure Segment Evolution
    5.4.2.1 Demand
    5.4.2.2 Supply
    5.4.3 Licensed >11 GHz FBW Infrastructure Segment Evolution
    5.4.3.1 Demand
    5.4.3.2 Supply
    5.5 North American FBW Services Market Evolution
    5.5.1 Evolution of the Consumer Segment
    5.5.1.1 Demand
    5.5.1.2 Supply
    5.5.2 Evolution of the Enterprise Segment
    5.5.2.1 Demand
    5.5.2.2 Supply

    Chapter VI
    NORTH AMERICAN FBW MARKET FORECASTS

    6.1 FBW Industry Forecasting Environment
    6.1.1 FBW Industry Dynamics
    6.1.1.1 Opportunities
    6.1.1.2 Threats
    6.1.2 Market Forecast Model Methodology
    6.2 Infrastructure Market Forecast
    6.2.1 FBW Infrastructure Shipments
    6.2.1.1 CPTP Access Link Unit Deployments
    6.2.1.2 PMP System Unit Deployments
    6.2.1.3 Transport Link Unit Deployments
    6.2.2 FBW Infrastructure Revenues
    6.2.2.1 CPTP Access Link Revenues
    6.2.2.2 PMP System Revenues
    6.2.2.3 Transport Link Revenues
    6.3 FBW Services Market
    6.3.1 Projected North American FBW Subscribers
    6.3.1.1 Enterprise Segment Subscribers
    6.3.1.2 Consumer Segment Subscribers
    6.3.2 North American FBW Subscriber-Generated Revenues
    6.3.2.1 Enterprise Segment Subscriber Revenues
    6.3.2.2 Consumer Segment Subscriber Revenues
    6.4 FBW Versus Other Broadband Access Alternatives

    Table of Figures

    Chapter I
    I-1 North American FBW Infrastructure Procurements, 2000-2006  ($Millions)
    I-2 North American FBW Subscriber Revenues, 2000-2006  ($Millions)

    Chapter II
    II-1 Public Communication Network Architecture

    Chapter III
    III-1 Point-to-Point FBW Architecture
    III-2 Consecutive Point-To-Point FBW Architecture
    III-3 Point-To-Multipoint FBW Architecture
    III-4 Mesh FBW Architecture

    Chapter IV
    IV-1 FBW Industry Operating Environment

    Chapter VI
    VI-1 CPTP Access Link Unit Shipments by Frequency Segment, 2000-2006
    VI-2 PMP Base Station Shipments by Frequency Segment, 2000-2006
    VI-3 PMP Remote Unit Shipments by Frequency Segment, 2000-2006
    VI-4 Transport Link Unit Shipments by Frequency Segment, 2000-2006
    VI-5 CPTP Access Link Revenues by Frequency Segment, 2000-2006  ($Thousands)
    VI-6 PMP Base Station Revenues by Frequency Segment, 2000-2006  ($Thousands)
    VI-7 PMP Remote Unit Revenues by Frequency Segment, 2000-2006  ($Thousands)
    VI-8 Transport Link Revenues by Frequency Segment, 2000-2006  ($Thousands)
    VI-9 FBW Enterprise Subscribers by Frequency Segment, 2000-2006
    VI-10 FBW Consumer Subscribers by Frequency Segment, 2000-2006
    VI-11 FBW Enterprise Revenues by Frequency Segment, 2000-2006  ($Thousands)
    VI-12 FBW Consumer Revenues by Frequency Segment, 2000-2006  ($Thousands)

    Table of Tables

    Chapter I
    I-1 FBW Unlicensed, Licensed Microwave, and Licensed Millimeter Spectrum 

    Chapter II
    II-1 Broadband Communication Network Access Solutions

    Chapter III
    III-1 Attributes of North American Unlicensed Frequency Bands Suitable for FBW Use
    III-2 Attributes of North American Licensed Microwave FBW Frequency Bands
    III-3 Attributes of North American Licensed Millimeter Wave FBW Frequency Bands
    III-4 PMP FBW System Attributes, Microwave vs. Millimeter Wave
    III-5 PMP FBW System Capacities by Frequency (Per Cell and Simultaneous Users)
    III-6 Network and Subscriber CPE Interfaces

    Chapter IV
    IV-1 FBW Demand Drivers
    IV-2 Financial Results of Selected FBW Vendors and Network Operators, 1999 and 2000  ($Millions)
    IV-3 Major FBW Industry Forums, Alliances, and Study Groups
    FBW Infrastructure Provider Profiles
    IV-4  Adaptive Broadband
    IV-5  ADC Telecommunications
    IV-6 Airdata WIMAN
    IV-7  AirFiber
    IV-8   Airspan Networks
    IV-9   Alcatel
    IV-10   Andrew Corporation
    IV-11   Aperto Networks
    IV-12   BeamReach Networks
    IV-13  BreezeCOM
    IV-14   BridgeWave
    IV-15   Cable AML
    IV-16   Carucel
    IV-17   Ceragon (Giganet)
    IV-18   Cisco Systems
    IV-19   DMC Stratex Networks
    IV-20   Ensemble Communications
    IV-21   Ericsson
    IV-22   Flarion
    IV-23   Floware Wireless
    IV-24   Harris/Wavtrace
    IV-25   Helioss Communications
    IV-26   Hughes Network Systems
    IV-27   Hybrid Networks
    IV-28   Iospan (Gigabit Wireless
    IV-29   IoWave
    IV-30   InnoWave ECI Wireless
    IV-31   Lucent Technologies
    IV-32   Malibu Networks
    IV-33   Mesh Networks
    IV-34   Motorola
    IV-35   NEC
    IV-36   Netro
    IV-37   NextNet Wireless
    IV-38   Nokia
    IV-39   Nortel Networks
    IV-40  P-Com
    IV-41   Proxim
    IV-42   Radiant Networks
    IV-43   RADWIN
    IV-44   Siemens
    IV-45   Solectek
    IV-46   SpectraPoint
    IV-47  Spike Broadband Systems
    IV-48  Thomcast
    IV-49 Terabeam Internet Systems
    IV-50 Triton Network Systems
    IV-51  Unique Broadband Systems
    IV-52  USURF America
    IV-53  Vyyo (Phasecom)
    IV-54 WaveRider
    IV-55  Western Multiplex
    IV-56   Wireless Inc
    IV-57   WiLAN
    IV-58  WirelessHome
    FBW Network Operator Profiles
    IV-59   ABC Communications
    IV-60   Adelphia Business Solutions
    IV-61   ADIS
    IV-62   Advanced Radio Telecom
    IV-63   AIR2LAN
    IV-64   Airnet
    IV-65   AT&T Wireless
    IV-66   BroadbandNow
    IV-67   Broadlink
    IV-68   CenturyTel
    IV-69   Clearwire
    IV-70  CoServ Broadband
    IV-71   Cybertech Wireless
    IV-72   EspeedAZ
    IV-73   Fuzion Wireless
    IV-74   HighSpeed.Com
    IV-75  Home Telephone Inc
    IV-76   Image Wireless
    IV-77   Liberty Cellular
    IV-78   LMA Systems
    IV-79   Look Communications
    IV-80   MaxLink Communications
    IV-81   MIPPSNet
    IV-82   NetVOICE
    IV-83  NewEraCom
    IV-84   NextWave
    IV-85   Nobell Communications
    IV-86   Nucentrix Internet Access
    IV-87   Oxford Telecom
    IV-88   Prairie iNet
    IV-89   Prime Companies
    IV-90   PSINet
    IV-91   Quest Net
    IV-92   Sioux Valley Wireless
    IV-93   SoFast
    IV-94   Sprint Communications
    IV-95  StacNet
    IV-96  Stream Intelligent Networks
    IV-97  Teligent
    IV-98  Touch America
    IV-99  Upper Canada Network
    IV-100  US UnWired
    IV-101   WDSL
    IV-102  WiBand
    IV-103   WinStar
    IV-104   WirelessOne
    IV-105   WorldCom
    IV-106   Worldwide Wireless
    IV-107   XO (NextLink)

    Chapter V
    V-1 Global and North American Economy Evolution (2001-2, 2003-4, and 2005+)
    V-2 North American Communications Industry Evolution (2001-2, 2003-4, and 2005+)
    V-3 North American FBW Industry Evolution (2001-2, 2003-4, and 2005+)
    V-4 North American FBW Infrastructure Market Evolution (2001-2, 2003-4, and 2005+)
    V-5 North American Unlicensed FBW Market Evolution (2001-2, 2003-4, and 2005+)
    V-6 North American Licensed <11 GHz FBW Market Evolution
    (2001-2, 2003-4, and 2005+)
    V-7 North American Licensed >11 GHz FBW Market Evolution (2001-2, 2003-4, and 2005+)
    V-8 North American FBW Services Market Evolution (2001-2, 2003-4, and 2005+)
    V-9 North American FBW Services Consumer Segment Evolution (2001-2, 2003-4, and 2005+)
    V-10 North American FBW Services Enterprise Segment Evolution (2001-2, 2003-4, and 2005+)

    Chapter VI
    VI-1 North American FBW Infrastructure Unit Shipments, 2000-2006
    VI-2 North American FBW Infrastructure Revenues by Equipment Type, 2000-2006  ($Thousands)
    VI-3 North American FBW Subscribers by Subscriber Type, 2000-2006
    VI-4 North American FBW Service Revenues by Subscriber Type, 2000-2006 ($Thousands)
    VI-5 North American Broadband Subscribers by Access and Customer Type, 2000-2006  (Thousands)


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