Insight Research - Fixed Mobile Convergence; Single phone solutions for Wireline and Wireless, 2007

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Fixed Mobile Convergence; Single Phone Solutions for Wireline and Wireless, 2007 - 2012

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Market Segmentation

Table of Contents

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Thus far in the global market the substitution effect has been one way: many consumers are substituting a wireless phone for wired phone and making their wireless service their only telephone service. For local and long distance companies this trend has been disastrous—resulting in a steady decline in the customer base and revenue.

In this study, Insight examines the potential impact that the single phone with fixed and mobile capability will have on the stakeholders: local wireline carriers, long distance providers, broadband ISPs, wireless carriers, and handset vendors. This report details the technologies and marketing enablers that each stake holder segment must address to achieve a successful convergence strategy.

Based upon our analysis of current international wireless-wireline convergence initiatives, Insight details how the various global communications environments are producing different models for success. The study concludes with a forecast of the market for convergence products internationally, assessing which strategies are presently the most successful.

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Report Excerpt

1.1 Why Fixed Mobile Convergence?

Fixed mobile convergence (FMC) is taking off around the world, though its take-up may not be apparent in the US, where momentum is still building. FMC is a service in which the same handset has access to services through a fixed network in addition to a wireless network. The same handset can be used in the home and office and also send and receive cellular calls when traveling in the wider world.

FMC suffered early on from too many technical approaches and too few standards. A number of operators conducted trials but hesitated to commit to full deployment. Fortunately, that period is behind us. Standards have been established and the industry seems to have coalesced around the dual mode WiFi/cellular approach. Operator trials have been replaced by new product announcements and large scale deployments have begun—at least in the consumer segment.

FMC can be accomplished in a variety of ways. Figure I-1 compares three of the most common FMC configurations in consumer homes with the existing scenario: Wireless substitution, Voice over Wireless Local Area Network (VoWLAN), and Fixed Cellular.

Figure I-1 Common Fixed Mobile Convergence Scenarios

· Wireless Substitution—is a common trend today. Essentially the customer abandons their landline phones in favor of wireless.

· VoWLAN—is becoming the predominant solution for FMC. The handset contains a radio that can connect to WiFi within the home or office and traditional cell networks outside the home or office.

· Fixed Cellular—telecommunications services are provided to the customer over a wireless network instead of a wireline network, but the handset is not transportable. Although fixed cellular has some FMC characteristics, it is not true FMC.

Pseudo-Convergence is another significant aspect of the FMC landscape. It is a price promotion or bundling of services that provides incentive for the customer to retain their wireline telephone but does not offer single handset with access to both cellular network and WiFi network. Wireline carriers are pursuing such tactics while they sort out the longer term issues of FMC.

1.2 FMC Stems Line Losses for Wireline-Only Carriers

Today, most wireline carriers around the globe are witnessing access line losses as a result of wireless substitution, the tendency of telecommunications users to drop their landline service entirely in favor of a cellular phone. Whether the subscriber is in Asia, the US, Latin America, or Europe, substitution is occurring because wireless services are becoming pervasive, increasingly convenient to use, quality and availability is improving, and the price of wireless service is decreasing. For example, according to the US FCC, the number of landline phones in the US dropped for the first time in 2001, with a decline of 0.4 percent.

Over 20 million lines have been disconnected between the peak in 2001 and 2006 (the latest year in which the statistics have been reported). ILECs......

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Market Segmentation

By Global Region
      Americas
            US
            Rest of Americas
      EMEA
            France
            Italy
            UK
            Rest of EMEA
      Asia Pacific
            Japan
            Rest of AP
      Latin America
Consumer FMC by Global Region
      Revenue ($ Millions)
      Subscribers (Millions)
      Cellular Subscriberrs (Millions)
      VoIP Households (Millions)
Enterprise FMC by Global Region
      Systems (Units)
      Equipment Revnue ($ Millions)
      Service Revenue ($ Millions)
      Mobility Annual Minutes of Use Average by Industry (US Enterprises)
      Mobility Annual Minutes of Use Average by Industry (W. Europe Enterprises)
United States
      Consumer FMC Revenue
      Consumer FMC Subscribers
      Wireless-Only Households
      Access Line Substitution, Residential and Business
      Average Monthly Minutes of Use
      Cellular Subscribers
      Wireless Monthly Minutes of Use
      Wireless Revenue
      Residential Broadband Subscribers
      Residential Broadband Revenues
      Residential Broadband VoIP Subscribers
      Residential Broadband VoIP Revenue
      Cellular-Only Households

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Table of Contents

Chapter I.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

1.1   Why Fixed Mobile Convergence?
1.2    FMC Stems Line Losses for Wireline Only Carriers
1.3    FMC Offers Little Upside to Wireless-only Players
1.4    3G Data Applications will Drive FMC Adoption
1.3    Consumers Will Demand FMC
1.4    Wireless Carriers Stall Development of Business Play
1.5    Market Growth of FMC

Chapter II
INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND

2.1    Introduction
         2.1.1 FMC as an Evolution of Telecommunications Services
         2.1.2  Definitions
         2.1.3  Factors Driving Development of FMC Solutions
2.2    Foundations for Fixed-Mobile Convergence
         2.2.1  Commercial Wireless Service Availability
                   2.2.1.1 Cellular for Fixed Services
         2.2.2  WLAN Performance
         2.2.3  VoIP Lowers Costs
         2.2.4  Local Number Portability
         2.2.5  The Shift from Fixed To Mobile Is On
         2.2.6  International Trends
2.3    The Importance of Access Transparency
2.4    The Handoff Tradeoff
2.5    Pricing
2.6    Pseudo-Convergence

Chapter III
FMC MARKET SEGMENTS

3.1    Overview
3.2    Consumer Segments-US
         3.2.1  Landline Subscriber and Usage Trends
         3.2.2  Cellular Subscriber and Usage Trends
         3.2.3  Who Is Abandoning Wireline?
         3.2.4  Wireline Replacement Statistics
3.3    International Usage Trends
         3.1.1  Cellular vs Wireline Penetration
         3.3.2  Europe
         3.3.3  Asia
3.4    Consumer Wireless Substitution
         3.4.1  Pricing and Other Factors Influencing Substitution
         3.4.2  Types of Pricing Plan and Their Impacts
         3.4.3  Other Factors In Mobile Substitution
3.4    Consumer Demand for FMC
         3.4.1  Consumer Segment Advantages and Disadvantages of FMC
         3.4.2  Consumer Drawbacks of the VoWLAN
3.5    Enterprise Demand for FMC.
         3.5.1  Overview
         3.5.2  Productivity
         3.5.3  Security
         3.5.4  The Enterprise Solution
         3.5.5  Enterprise VoWLAN/Cellular Handset Considerations
         3.5.6  Enterprise VoWLAN/Cellular Controller
         3.5.7  Integrated VoWLAN/Cellular Solution Issues
         3.5.8  Limitations of VoWLAN – Enterprise and Consumer
3.6     Fixed Wireless Segment
3.7    Summary

Chapter IV
TECHNOLOGIES AND STANDARDS

4.1    IP and FMC
4.2    IP’s Impact on FMC
         4.2.1 Transition to IPv6
                   4.2.1.1 Transition Strategies from IPv4 to IPv6
                   4.2.1.2 SIP and Convergence
                   4.2.1.3 SIP Architecture
          4.2.2 Mobile IP
                   4.2.2.1 Mobility and Roaming
                   4.2.2.2  The Future of Mobile IP
          4.2.3 Voice over IP
4.3    Mobile Wireless
         4.3.1 First and Second Generation Wireless Technologies
         4.3.2 Third Generation Wireless Systems
4.4    WiFi or Wireless LANs
         4.4.1 Issues with 802.11
4.5    WiMAX
4.6    Bluetooth
4.7    A Standard for VoWLAN/Cellular: Unlicensed Mobile Access.
         4.7.1 UMA Operation
         4.7.2 UMA Technology
         4.7.3 Interoperability
4.8   3GPP
4.9 Ultra Wide Band (UWB)
4.10 Industry Associations
         4.11.1 Unlicensed Mobile Access
         4.11.2 IMS
         4.11.3 Fixed-Mobile Convergence Alliance

Chapter V
OPERATOR TRIALS, DEPLOYMENTS, AND STRATEGIES

5.1    Operator Overview
5.2    Cellular Carrier Strategies
         5.2.1 Enablers
         5.2.1  Inhibitors
         5.2.2  Marketing
         5.2.3  Service Quality
         5.2.4 Product Launches and Trials
                   5.2.4.1 T-Mobile
                   5.2.4.2   Sprint/Nextel
                   5.2.4.3   O2
                   5.2.4.4   Vodaphone
                   5.2.4.5   Cellular Carrier Summary
5.3    Wireline Strategies
          5.3.1  Enablers
          5.3.2  Inhibitors
          5.3.3  Billing Systems
          5.3.4  Defense vs Offense
          5.3.5  Marketing and Channels
          5.3.6  Product Launches and Trials
                    5.3.6.1  British Telecom’s Fusion
                    5.3.6.2  Korea Telecom
                    5.3.6.3  China Netcom & China Telecom
                    5.3.6.4  Shanghai Telecom
                    5.3.6.5  Embarq
          5.3.7 Other Wireline Carriers
                    5.3.7.1  Earthlink
                    5.3.7.2 Boingo
                    5.3.7.3 Vonage
           5.3.8  Wireline Carrier Summary
5.4    Integrated Wireless-Wireline Strategies
         5.4.1   Bundling
         5.4.2   AT&T
         5.4.3   Verizon
         5.4.4   Bell Canada VoWLAN/Cellular Trial
         5.4.5   TeliaSonera
         5.4.6   Deutsche Telecom
         5.4.7   France Telecom
         5.4.8   SingTel
         5.4.9   Integrated Wireless Wireline Carrier Summary
5.5    Cable Strategies
         5.5.1   US Cable Consortium
         5.5.2   Jupiter Communications
         5.5.2 Cable Operator Review
5.6    Operator Strategy Review
5.7    Strategy Recommendations

Chapter VI
FMC Market Forecasts

6.1    Summary
6.2    Methodology
6.3    Worldwide Consumer FMC Forecast
6.4    Worldwide Enterprise FMC Market
6.5    US Historical Wireless/Wireline Trends
         6.5.1   Wireless Subscriber and Revenue Forecasts
6.6    Broadband, VoIP, and WLAN
         6.6.1   Broadband Access
         6.6.2   VoIP
         6.6.3   WLAN
6.7    Cellular-Only Households
6.8    3G and Wireline Broadband Substitution

Table of Figures

Chapter I

I-1     Common Fixed Mobile Convergence Scenarios
I-2    Landline Telephone Penetration Percentage US, 1999-2006
I-3    Cellphone Minutes of Use in by Worker Type in US Enterprises
I-4    Cell Phone MOU by Worker Type in W. Europe Enterprises
I-5    Carrier & Equipment Vendor Revenue ($Millions)C

Chapter II

II-1 Common Fixed Mobile Convergence Scenarios
II-2 Cingular Data ARPU
II-3 Employment Growth by Major Sector, 2005 and 2012
II-4 Percentage Growth by Occ Title and Mobility, 2004-2014
II-5 Revenue for Wireline and Wireless ($Millions)

Chapter III

III-1 Landline Telephone Penetration Percentage US, 1999-2006
III-2 US VoIP Households 2006-2010 (Millions)
III-3 Estimated US Cellular Subscribers, 1988-2006 (Millions)
III-4 Average Local Monthly US Cellular Bill, 1988-2006
III-5 Average Monthly US Cellular Minutes of Use, 1997-2006
III-6 Wireline vs. Mobile Phone Growth 1988-2006 (Millions)
III-7 Worldwide Cellular Subscribers 2006-2012 (Millions)
III-8 Cellular and Wireline Phone Penetration Per Capita 2006
III-9 Cellular Phone Penetration per capita 2006
III-10 Worldwide VoIP Households 2006-2010
III-11 Access Lines in UK and France 2003-2006 ( Millions)
III-12 Cellphone MOU in by Worker Type in US Enterprises
III-13 Cellphone MOU in by Worker Type in W. Europe Enterprises
III-14 Countries with PHS Deployments

Chapter IV

IV-1 Basic Components of a SIP Network
IV-2 Mobile IP Operation
IV-3 SIP Network Architecture
IV-4 UMA Overview
IV-5 UMA Functional Architecture

Chapter V

V-1 UT Starcom Pocket PC 6700
V-2 AT&T Wireless Call Forwarding Device

Chapter VI

VI-1 US Consumer FMC Revenue Forecast 2007-2011
VI-2 US Consumer FMC Subscriber Forecast 2007-2012
VI-3 US Wireless-Only Households, 2002-2006 (Millions)
VI-4 US Access Line Substitution, Residential and Business
VI-5 US Avg Monthly MOU, Interstate Wireless vs. Res Wireline Toll
VI-6 US Wireline vs. Wireless Revenue, 2002-2006
VI-7 US Cellular Subscribers, 2005-2012 (Millions)
VI-8 Wireless Monthly Minutes of Use per US User, 2005-2012
VI-9 US Wireless Revenue, 2007-2012 ($Billions)
VI-10 US Residential Broadband Subscriber Growth, 2007-2012
VI-11 US Residential Broadband Revenue Growth, 2007-2012
VI-12 US Residential Broadband VoIP Subscribers, 2007-2012
VI-13 US Residential Broadband VoIP Revenue, 2007-2012
VI-14 US Cellular-Only Households, 2007-2012 (Millions)

Table of Tables

Chapter I

I-1 Consumer VoWLAN/Cellular Service Scenario: Adv and Disadv

Chapter III

III-1 US Wireline End User Switched Access Lines 1999-2006
III-2 US Wireline Telephone Calls 1999-2005 (Millions)
III-3 Cell Phone Only by Age Group
III-4 Landline Telephone Penetration by Age Group
III-5 Landline-Cellular Bill Comparison
III-6 Cellular Service Only Scenario: Advantages and Disadvantages
III-7 Consumer VoWLAN/Cellular Service Scenario: Adv and Disadv

Chapter IV

IV-1 WiFi Standards Under the 802.11 Umbrella

Chapter VI

VI-1 Worldwide Consumer Revenue FMC Forecast 2007-2012
VI-2 Worldwide Consumer Subscriber FMC Forecast 2007-2012
VI-3 Enterprise FMC Forecast 2007-2012 (Systems)
VI-4 Enterprise FMC Service Forecast 2007-2012 ($ Million)
VI-5 Enterprise FMC Equipment Revenue Forecast 2007-2012 ($ Million)
VI-6   Cell Phone Usage by Vertical Industry: US Enterprises
VI-7   Cell Phone Usage by Vertical Industry (Western Europe Enterprises)
VI-8   Annual Cell Phone Usage per Employee by Country (Fin Svcs Industry)
VI-9 US Access Line Substitution, Residential and Business, 2002-2006 (Millions)
VI-10 US Avg Monthly Min of Use, Interstate Wireless vs. Res Wireline Toll
VI-11 US Wireline vs. Wireless Revenue, 2002-2006 ($Billions)
VI-12 Likelihood of Respondent's Household Giving up Regular Telephones
VI-13 Top Priorities of US Cellular Users for Dropping Landline Service
VI-14 US Cellular-Only Households vs. Total Households, 2007-2012
VI-15 US Cellular-Only Subscribers by Age Range, 2007-2012 (Thousands)

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