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The Future of Telecommunications 2006-2011
a market research report
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Continuing turmoil throughout the worldwide telecommunications industry warrants a systematic look forward at the possible repercussions of the forces that are now pushing the industry forward: the end user’s demand for more bandwidth; increased reliance on mobility services; and the end users’ assessment of cost versus performance.
In this study, INSIGHT will develop several scenarios to model the future shape of telecommunications. Thus far, the industry has reacted to the forces driving major structural change through consolidation, as carriers merge and equipment suppliers struggle to survive. Both on the domestic level and internationally, regulators and government agencies are struggling to cope with rapid, profound structural change in an industry that had been predictable for more than 100 years.
The technologies spurring the industry’s transformation can be clearly delineated: IP transport’s ability to merge voice, video and data; the long-haul fiber glut and the resulting price wars dropping the cost of bandwidth; the variety of local broadband wired and wireless solutions; increasing security requirements; and the corresponding decrease in the ability to protect users on the Internet.
In this study, INSIGHT will present possible future scenarios for how these forces and technologies will reshape the worldwide telecommunications industry and the impact each scenario will have on the industry’s existing revenue models.
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Report Excerpt
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1.1 The Future of Telecommunications: Three Scenarios After several years of contraction, the
telecommunications industry is back, riding the crest of worldwide
enthusiasm for new video-enabled services. The emergence of video as a
major force is reshaping mobile and fixed line telecommunications by driving
billions of dollars into new infrastructure investments—but just what will
this new telecommunications landscape look like?
To imagine what the future of the telecommunications
industry will look like over the next few years, Insight
posited three possible outcomes that appear to bracket the potential of the
industry over our forecast period, and developed detailed scenarios for each
option:
·
networks all continue to evolve, but none are
supplanted;
·
networks evolve to a global ubiquitous Internet-based
solution; or
·
networks evolve toward un-tethered ubiquitous wireless
connectivity.
We fully recognize that none of the scenarios are
likely to develop as a “pure play.” More likely, the three scenarios will
evolve with considerable cross-pollination, support, and competition among
each of the possible outcomes. Our scenario-building exercise is thus
offered as an aid to planning and thinking about the future of
telecommunications, and we would not purport that any one of the scenarios
will be proven wholly correct in every aspect.
Scenario I: Networks Evolve, None Are Supplanted
— In this scenario circuit switched telephony will still be regarded as
gold standard, with businesses only using IP telephony for intra-company
communications in a managed network environment. Use of the public Internet
is found to be too risky to support complex routing of telephone network
traffic. Establishing international protocols to use other connections
proves to be unsatisfactory. Internet applications continue to demand more
bandwidth, but IP telephony remains a niche application found most often in
enterprise managed networks and in providing access to the circuit switched
network ala cable TV. Broadband fiber connections become pervasive and
support all types of communications. Cable TV companies continue to expand
their fiber access networks, and use their coax connections into the home
more efficiently. At the same time, cable operators begin offering services
to businesses. Wireless connections allow wider mobility and increased
bandwidth, but still lag behind the wired connection in the bandwidth
offered......
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Market Segmentation
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Scenario: Current Networks Evolve
By Global Region: Total Worldwide Wireline Subscribers
By Global Region: Narrowband Wireline Revenue
By Global Region: Broadband Wireline Users
By Global Region: Broadband Wireline Revenue
By Global Region: Wireless Subscribers
By Global Region: Narrowband Wireless Revenues
By Global Region: Broadband Wireless Users
By Global Region: Broadband Wireless Revenue
Scenario: Internet Dominates
By Global Region: Total Worldwide Wireline Subscribers by Region
By Global Region: Worldwide Narrowband Wireline Revenue
By Global Region: Worldwide Broadband Wireline Users
By Global Region: Worldwide Broadband Wireline Revenue
By Global Region: Worldwide Wireless Subscribers
By Global Region: Worldwide Narrowband Wireless Revenue
By Global Region: Worldwide Broadband Wireless Users
By Global Region: Worldwide Broadband Wireless Revenue
Scenario: Wireless Dominates
By Global Region: Total Worldwide Wireline Subscribers
By Global Region: Worldwide Narrowband Wireline Revenue
By Global Region: Worldwide Broadband Wireline Users
By Global Region: Worldwide Broadband Wireline Revenue
By Global Region: Worldwide Wireless Subscribers by Region
By Global Region: Worldwide Narrowband Wireless Revenue
By Global Region: Worldwide Broadband Wireless Users
By Global Region: Worldwide Broadband Wireless Revenue
Comparative Performance: Three Scenarios
Worldwide Wireline Subscribers by Scenario,
Worldwide Wireless Subscribers by Scenario,
Worldwide Broadband Wireline Users by Scenario
Worldwide Broadband Wireless Users by Scenario
Worldwide Narrowband Wireline Revenue by Scenario
Worldwide Narrowband Wireless Revenue by Scenario
Worldwide Broadband Wireline Revenue by Scenario
Worldwide Broadband Wireless Revenue by Scenario
Total Wireline and Wireless Broadband and Narrowband
Revenues by Scenario
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Table of Contents
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Chapter I
Executive Summary
1.1 The Future of Telecommunications: Three Scenarios
1.2 Market Verities
1.3 Analysis of Market
Chapter II
Three Scenarios As a Context For Evaluation
2.1 The Condition of Early 21st Century Telecommunications
2.1.1 Continued Growth in Communications Usage
2.2.2 Changing Focus of Users
2.2.3 Evolution of Video
2.2 The Future of Telecommunications: Three Scenarios
2.2.1 Scenario I: Networks Evolve, None Are Supplanted
2.2.2 Scenario II: Global Ubiquitous Internet-Based Solution
2.2.3 Scenario III: Un-Tethered and Wireless
Chapter III
Technical Issues
3.1 Technology Scenarios
3.2 Networks Evolve: Circuit-to-Packet Switched Network
3.1.1 Softswitches
3.1.2 Fiber “Glut”
3.2 Global Ubiquitous Internet-Based Solution
3.2.1 Broadband Access
3.2.2 Broader Broadband Access
3.3.3 Capability Issues: IPv6
3.3.4 Security
3.3.5 Reliability
3.3 Un-Tethered and Wireless
3.3.1 Phone Service
3.3.1.1 IP Multimedia Subsystem (IMS)
3.3.1.2 Without a “World Phone”
3.3.2 Wideband Access
3.3.2.1 3G & 4G Access
3.3.2.2 WiFi & WiMAX
3.3.3 Spectrum
3.3.4 Security
3.3.5 Reliability
3.4 Looking Forward
3.4.1 Voice over the Internet Protocol: Three Flavors
3.4.2 Internet over Cell Phone
3.4.3 Circuit Switched Access Over the Internet
Chapter IV
Regulatory Issues
4.1 Overview
4.2 The Regulators
4.2.1 The World Trade Organization (WTO)
4.3 The New Regulatory Paradigm
4.3.1 Power and Water/Gas: the Other “Natural Monopolies”
4.4 Municipal Networks
4.5 How Regulators Can Affect the Scenarios for the Future
Chapter V
Business Issues
5.1 Sins of the Past
5.1.1 Assets & Depreciation
5.1.2 Internet Bubble
5.1.3 The Role of Vendor Financing & Overbuilds
5.2 Looking Toward the Future
5.2.1 User Demand Increases
5.2.2 Revenue Goes Down
5.2.2.1 The Long Distance Give Away
5.2.2.2 Competition from VoIP and Wireless
5.2.2.3 Competition from Cable, DSL, WiMAX
5.2.2.4 Other Factors
5.3 The Impact
Chapter VI
Models of Network Evolution
6.1 Methodology
6.2 Current Networks Evolve Scenario
6.2.1 Networks Evolve Scenario Assumptions
6.2.2 Networks Evolve Market Estimates
6.3 The Ubiquitous Internet Scenario
6.3.1 Ubiquitous Internet Scenario Assumptions
6.3.2 Ubiquitous Internet Market Estimates
6.4 The Untethered Wireless World Scenario
6.4.1 Wireless Scenario Assumptions
6.4.2 Wireless Market Estimates
6.5 Concluding Thoughts
6.5.1 Comparing the Three Scenarios
6.5.2 Things to Watch For
Appendix: Glossary
Table of Figures
Chapter I
I-1 Regional Subscriber Growth 2002-2005 (Millions)
I-2 Total Wireline and Wireless Broadband and Narrowband
Revenues by Scenario ($Trillions)
Chapter II
II-1 Regional Subscriber Growth 2002-2005 (Millions)
II-2 Korea Household Broadband Penetration 1999-2005
(Percent of Total Households)
Chapter III
III-1 Softswitch Distributed Call Control Reduces Costs
III-2 Traditional Tree-and-Branch Coax Architecture
III-3 HFC Architecture Providing Voice and Video Services
III-4 Example Single-Carrier VDSL Asymmetric Spectral Allocation
III-5 Phone Companies Fiber to the Home Architecture
III-6 Distribution of Wireless Networks by Technology Type, 2005
III-7 Corporate Applications of VoIP
III-8 CATV Applications of VoIP
III-9 Internet Applications of VoIP
Chapter V
V-1 US Internet Backbone Revenue Quarterly Growth Rates, 2000-2001
V-2 Telecom Industry Share Price Declines, 2000-2005 (Average Share Price)
V-3 Insight’s Estimate of Worldwide Broadband Subscribers: Historical &
Present
Chapter VI
VI-1 Networks Evolve: Worldwide Wireline Subscribers by Region
VI-2 Networks Evolve: Worldwide Wireless Subscribers by Region
VI-3 Networks Evolve: Worldwide Wireline Revenue by Region
VI-4 Networks
Evolve: Worldwide Wireless Revenues by Region
VI-5 All Internet:
Worldwide Wireline Subscribers by Region
VI-6 All Internet: Worldwide
Wireless Subscribers by Region
VI-7 All Internet: Worldwide Wireline
Revenue by Region
VI-8 All Internet: Worldwide Wireless Revenue by Region
VI-9 All Wireless: Worldwide Wireline Subscribers by Region
VI-10 All
Wireless: Worldwide Wireless Subscribers by Region
VI-11 All Wireless:
Worldwide Wireline Revenue by Region
VI-12 All Wireless: Worldwide
Wireless Revenue by Region
VI-13 Worldwide Wireline Subscribers by
Scenario, 2005-2011
VI-14 Worldwide Wireless Subscribers by Scenario,
2005-2011
VI-15 Worldwide Broadband Wireline Users by Scenario, 2005-2011
VI-16 Worldwide Broadband Wireless Users by Scenario, 2005-2011
VI-17
Worldwide Narrowband Wireline Revenue by Scenario, 2005-2011
VI-18
Worldwide Narrowband Wireless Revenue by Scenario, 2005-2011
VI-19
Worldwide Broadband Wireline Revenue by Scenario, 2005-2011
VI-20
Worldwide Broadband Wireless Revenue by Scenario, 2005-2011
VI-21 Total
Wireline and Wireless Broadband and Narrowband Revenues
by Scenario
Table of Tables
Chapter 1
I-1 Total Wireline and Wireless Broadband and Narrowband Revenues by Scenario ($Billions)
Chapter II
II-1 Growth of US Voice, Data, Wireless Service 1999-2006 ($Billions)
II-2 Growth of US Consumer vs. Business Data Service 1999-2006 ($Billions)
Chapter III
III-1 Worldwide Broadband Penetration by Countries in the Americas
III-2
Worldwide Broadband Penetration by Countries in Asia-Pacific
III-3
Worldwide Broadband Penetration by Countries in Eur /Mid East/Africa
III-4 Fiber Installation Cost Estimates
III-5 FTTP Cost Analysis: Earnings per Share Impacts
III-6 Worldwide Wireless Subscriber Growth by Region
III-7 Mobile Wireless Standards (First, Second, and Third Generation)
III-8 Examples of 2.5G and 3G Services
III-9 Wireless Network Deployment Status, 2005
III-10 Variations on the 802.11 Standard
III-11 Typical Frequencies Used for Mobile Services
III-12 Packet Delay for Internet Voice
III-13 Wireless Data Using PCs: US Access Subscribers
III-14 Percent of US Population Using PCs for Wireless Data Access
Chapter IV
IV-1 Ratios of Urban to Rural Telephone Density by Region
Chapter VI
VI-1 Networks Evolve: Total Worldwide Wireline Subscribers by Region
VI-2 Networks Evolve: Worldwide Narrowband Wireline Revenue by Region
VI-3 Networks Evolve: Worldwide Broadband Wireline Users by Region
VI-4 Networks Evolve: Worldwide Broadband Wireline Revenue by Region
VI-5 Networks Evolve: Worldwide Wireless Subscribers by Region
VI-6 Networks Evolve: Worldwide Narrowband Wireless Revenues by Region
VI-7 Networks Evolve: Worldwide Broadband Wireless Users by Region
VI-8 Networks Evolve: Worldwide Broadband Wireless Revenue by Region
VI-9 All Internet: Worldwide Wireline Subscribers by Region
VI-10 All Internet: Worldwide Narrowband Wireline Revenue by Region
VI-11 All Internet: Worldwide Broadband Wireline Users by Region
VI-12 All Internet: Worldwide Broadband Wireline Revenue
VI-13 All Internet: Worldwide Wireless Subscribers by Region
VI-14 All Internet: Worldwide Narrowband Wireless Revenue by Region
VI-15 All Internet: Worldwide Broadband Wireless Users by Region
VI-16 All Internet: Worldwide Broadband Wireless Revenue by Region
VI-17 All Wireless: Worldwide Wireline Subscribers by Region
VI-18 All Wireless: Worldwide Narrowband Wireline Revenue by Region
VI-19 All Wireless: Worldwide Broadband Wireline Users by Region
VI-20 All Wireless: Worldwide Broadband Wireline Revenue
VI-21 All Wireless: Worldwide Wireless Subscribers by Region
VI-22 All Wireless: Worldwide Narrowband Wireless Revenue by Region
VI-23 All Wireless: Worldwide Broadband Wireless Users by Region
VI-24 All Wireless: Worldwide Broadband Wireless Revenue by Region
VI-25 Worldwide Wireline Subscribers by Scenario, 2005-2011
VI-26 Worldwide Wireless Subscribers by Scenario, 2005-2011
VI-27 Worldwide Broadband Wireline Users by Scenario, 2005-2011
VI-28 Worldwide Broadband Wireless Users by Scenario, 2005-2011
VI-29 Worldwide Narrowband Wireline Revenue by Scenario, 2005-2011
VI-30 Worldwide Narrowband Wireless Revenue by Scenario, 2005-2011
VI-31 Worldwide Broadband Wireline Revenue by Scenario, 2005-2011
VI-32 Worldwide Broadband Wireless Revenue by Scenario, 2005-2011
VI-33 Total Wireline and Wireless Broadband and Narrowband Revenues
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Telecom
Market
Research,
