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The Future of Telecommunications, 2008 - 2013
a market research report
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These are facts: the PSTN is moribund and IP networks are taking over; on a global basis mobile communications is the preferred mode of connecting people and information; traditional telecom equipment vendors can only survive by selling software and services that use commercial computing platforms; and regulatory oversight is being replaced by market competition. Networks must now be designed and operated from the bottom up rather than from the top down so that centralized control defers to peripheral control. Convergence will mean that companies which used to be in separate industries – telcos, mobile operators, ISPs, cable and entertainment firms – are now in the same business (any firm that can deliver an IP stream can offer any service). OEMs must come to terms with the fact that their business models increasingly rely on software and services; yet do not guarantee higher margins.
The report will examine what the industry makeover will mean for telcos, mobile operators, ISPs, systems integrators and OEMs, and what they need to do to remain competitive. We analyze the impact of the technology shift on economic growth prospects in developing and developed countries, and the opportunities and risks it represents for service providers and equipment vendors, as well as governments. To understand how the future of networking is being developed today, read this report.
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Report Excerpt
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Two years ago, in our study
entitled The Future of Telecommunications 2006-2011, Insight
examined the possibility that, by the close of 2011, of the three ubiquitous
networks—PSTN (public switched telephone network), wireless, and IP
(Internet protocol)—one could potentially come to dominate the others and
thereby change the telecommunications revenue picture completely. In one
scenario we posited that the three networks would continue to evolve along
current trajectories, and in the other two scenarios we had Internet and
then wireless dominating all of communications. Two years later, we have
our answer: communications is converging on IP backbones.
The dominance of IP marks
the merging of the previously separate communications and entertainment
services—fixed and mobile telephony, broadband Internet access, and
television. It marks the convergence of markets, but it is the result
of the telecommunications industry’s embrace of Internet technology, which
provides a cheaper and more efficient way to convey information as it eases
the pressures on margins. Convergence allows operators to replace multiple
networks for services such as voice, data and video—each with its own
order-entry, billing and fault-reporting systems—with a single network on
which everything travels as interleaved streams of IP packets.
The convergence affects not
only wireline networks, but wireless ones too. Today, operators run
separate but interconnected networks for fixed and mobile phones. The new
converged networks are access “neutral”. In short, a single core network
may have a variety of devices connected to its edges made up of different
technologies and carries all traffic, whether voice, data, or video. This
means that IP in a converged network world enables one network to provide
many services with any access device. Such a network costs less to run and
new services can be added at the click of a mouse without the addition of
any new infrastructure.
A key benefit for all
service providers comes from reduced costs in operations, as well as
marketing and sales: after all, services can now be advertised, packaged and
delivered under a single brand and on one network. The convergence of
multiple networks allows operators therefore to bundle services and provide
them at lower cost while the business logic of bundling makes the cost of
building new, converged networks easier to justify.
For now, however, the key
reason for the operator migration to IP networks is ................
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Market Segmentation
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By Region
North America
Europe
Asia-Pacific
Americas
Africa
Worldwide Subscribers
Telecommunications Subscribers
Telecommunications Household Subscriber
Penetration
US Telecommunications Service Subscribers
Global Voice MoU & Data Equivalent MoU
US Telecommunications Voice and Data
Traffic
US Telecommunications Subscriber
Penetration
Worldwide Revenue
Worldwide Telecommunications Spending as
Percent of GDP
Worldwide Telecommunications Revenues
US Telecommunications Revenue
Worldwide Narrowband Wireline Revenues
Worldwide Narrowband Wireless Revenues
Worldwide Broadband Wireless Revenues
Worldwide Broadband Wireline Revenues
Wireline
Regional Narrowband Wireline Penetration by
Population
Regional Internet Subscribers
Regional Internet Penetration by Population
Regional Broadband Wireline Subscriber
Households
Regional Broadband Household Penetration
Regional IPTV Subscriber Households
Regional IPTV Household Penetration
Wireless
Regional Narrowband Wireless Subscribers
Regional Wireless Penetration by
Population,
Regional Broadband Wireless Subscribers
Regional Broadband Wireless Penetration
Broadband Wireless Subscribers
Capital Expense
Worldwide Operator CAPEX Spending
Worldwide Operator CAPEX Spending Percent
of GDP
US Operator CAPEX Spending
Operator CAPEX Spending by Global Region
Equipment
Global Telecommunications Equipment Market
United States Carrier Telecommunications
Equipment Market
Wireless Infrastructure Providers Global
Market Share
Handsets Shipments by Region
Smartphone Units by OEM
Mobile Only-Households: Select Countries
Europe
IPTV: Select Carriers
Outsourcing
Wireless Outsourcing Addressable Market
Revenue
Wireline Outsourcing Addressable Market
Revenue
Outsourcing Addressable Market Capture –
Segment Share
Outsourcing Addressable Market Capture –
Segment Share Percent
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Table of Contents
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Chapter 1
Executive Summary
1.1 IP Changes Everything
1.2 Convergence Cuts Both Ways
1.3 The Road Ahead for Operators
1.4 The Road Ahead for OEMs
1.5 The Future
Chapter II
Communications Drives Global Economic Growth
2.1 The Importance of Telecom in the Global
Perspective
2.2 Telecom in the US Perspective
Chapter III
The Future of Telecommunications
3.1 Consolidation Portends the New Paradigm
3.2 IP Now Dominates
3.2.1
Stakeholder Business Models Require Change
3.2.2 Where Will
New Revenue Come From?
3.3 The Services Revenue Picture: Global &
Regional Views
3.4 Operator CAPEX Spending: Global and
Regional
3.5 Subscriber Growth: Global and Regional
Views
3.6 US Perspective
Chapter IV
Technology Drivers for the Future of Telecommunications
4.1 Why IP?
4.2 Overcoming IP Technology’s Limits
4.2.1 Security &
Cyber Crime
4.2.2 Addressing
4.2.3 Rights
Management
4.3 Wireless Broadband Evolution
4.3.1 3G-4G
Evolution
4.3.2 Advanced
Wireless Technologies
4.4 IPTV
4.5 Controlling Converged Networks
4.5.1 IMS
4.5.2 PacketCable
4.5.3 Web 2.0
4.6 Regional Issues and Technology
The Road Ahead
5.1 Operator and OEM Strategic Re-Think
Required
5.2 The Future of Regulation
5.3 The Road Ahead for Operators
5.4 The Road Ahead for OEMs
5.4.1 Mergers and
Acquisitions
5.4.2 Shifts in the
Value-Chain
5.4.3 Joint
Ventures
5.4.4 Scale
Economies
5.4.5 Managed Deals
5.5 Equipment Market
5.6 Strategic Re-Think for OEMs
5.6.1
Infrastructure OEMs
5.6.2 Wireless
Handset OEMs
5.6.3 Chipmakers
5.7 Outsourcing: The Way Forward for Operators
5.7.1 Wireless
Outsourcing Markets
Table of Figures
Chapter I
I-1 Telecom Networking Before and
After IP
I-2 Worldwide Telecommunications
Operators Capital Expenditures
I-3 Global Telecommunications
Revenues
Chapter II
II-1 E-Line Point-to-Point Service Type
II-2 E-LAN Multipoint-to-Multipoint
Service Type
II-3 LAN Extension Using E-LAN Services
II-4 Typical Backhaul Configuration
II-5 DSL Subscriber Forecast, 2007-2012
II-6 Typical DSLAM Backhaul Application
Chapter IV
IV-1 Telecom Networking Before and After IP
IV-2 IPv4 Allocation by Region
IV-3 IPv4 Addresses per Capita by Region
IV-4 DRM Building Blocks
IV-5 Global DRM Revenue Growth, 2007-2012
Chapter V
V-1 Maturation
of a Comprehensive and Successful Outsourcing Strategy
Table of Tables
Chapter II
II-1 Global Telecommunications Spending as
Percent of GDP, 2008-2013
II-2 Global Telecommunications Revenues,
2008-2013
II-3 Telecommunications Subscribers, 2008-2013
II-4 Telecommunications Household Subscriber
Penetration, 2008-2013
II-5 US Telecommunications Revenue, 2008-2013
II-6 US Telecommunications Service
Subscribers, 2008-2013
II-7 US Telecommunications Subscriber
Penetration, 2008-2013
Chapter III
III-1 Internet and PSTN Key Differences
III-2 Countries with Highest FTTH/FTTH Penetration,
July 2007
III-3 Global Voice MoUs & Data Equivalent MoUs,
2008-2013
III-4 US Telecommunications Voice and Data Traffic,
2008-2013
III-5 Worldwide Telecommunications Revenues,
2008-2013
III-6 Worldwide Narrowband Wireline Revenues,
2008-2013
III-7 Worldwide Narrowband Wireless Revenues,
2008-2013
III-8 Worldwide Broadband Wireless Revenues,
2008-2013
III-9 Worldwide Broadband Wireline Revenues,
2008-2013
III-10 Worldwide IPTV Revenues, 2008-2013
III-11 Worldwide Operator CAPEX Spending, 2008-2013
III-12 Worldwide Operator CAPEX Spending, 2008-2013
III-13 Worldwide Operator CAPEX Spending (Percent of GDP)
III-14 US Operator CAPEX Spending, 2008-2013
III-15 Worldwide Wireline Subscribers, 2008-2013
III-16 Regional Narrowband Wireline Penetration by Population,
2008-2013
III-17 Regional Narrowband Wireless Subscribers, 2008-2013
III-18 Regional Wireless Penetration by Population, 2008-2013
III-19 Regional Internet Subscribers, 2008-2013
III-20 Regional Internet Penetration by Population, 2008-2013
III-21 Regional Broadband Wireline Subscriber Households,
2008-2013
III-22 Regional Broadband Household Penetration, 2008-2013
III-23 Regional IPTV Subscriber Households, 2008-2013
III-24 Regional IPTV Household Penetration, 2008-2013 (Percent)
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Pricing Information
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Hard Copy
Price
$ 3995
Electronic Copy Price
(PDF License Descriptions)
$ 4695 Single-User Printable PDF
$ 6995 6-Seat Printable PDF
$ 10000 Unlimited Corporate-Wide Distribution
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Telecom
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