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The world is in the grip of a financial recession
that has shaken the global economic system to its foundation. But what
is the consequence for the telecom sector? After all, telecommunications
and the Internet are now vital platforms, underpinning trade, industry,
finance, and personal communications worldwide.
Services are coming under pricing pressure and margins are eroding,
which in turn will affect investment in infrastructure and new
technology. Will the credit
crunch derail investments in NGNs and converged services? Does the
dot-com bust earlier in the decade provide clues for the way forward?
Furthermore,
how will OEMs fare during the economic maelstrom, where are the
opportunities for operators, what are the risks, and which operators are
best equipped to weather the crisis?
This report explores the impact of the financial crisis on the telecom
sector in quantitative terms, especially on capital investments such as
optical equipment and fiber and Ethernet and Sonet equipment. The focus
of the analysis will be on operators in North America, key EU member
states, and select Asian countries.
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1.1 Turbulent Times
These are turbulent times. The credit market
difficulties that had simmered for months erupted into a full-blown
financial crisis in September of 2008. As a result, the world is in the
grip of an exceptional financial crisis that has shaken the global economic
system to its foundation. For a year, the world economy teetered on the
brink of collapse. Although economic growth returned in late 2009, recovery
is likely to be slow and will remain sluggish going forward, with
unemployment remaining high and government finance precarious. What
initially started as a niche problem in the United States mortgage market
quickly morphed into an economic slowdown of global dimensions—and the
current economic indicators continue to be bleak.
But what is the consequence for the telecommunications
sector? In these uncertain times, the answer to that question is not
altogether clear. One thing that is clear, however, is the fact that
telecommunications is now a vital service platform, underpinning trade,
industry, and finance, as well as personal communications. Telecom is a key
means of helping countries weather the economic recession because it is not
only a key sector in its own right, but it also boosts economic growth and
increases economic productivity, efficiency, and expansion. This report
examines the impact of the financial crisis on the telecommunications
industry—and its role in stimulating the global economy.
Given its key role in global economic life, demand for
telecommunications services may ...........
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Chapter I
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1.1 Turbulent Times
1.2 The Recession’s Impact on
Telecommunications Capital Spending
1.3 Forecast of Telecommunications
Operators’ Capital Spending
Chapter II
THE RECESSION’S IMPACT ON TELECOMMUNICATIONS
2.1 Economic Conditions and
Outlook
2.2 Telecommunications Sector
Outlook
2.3 Is this Crisis a Déjà Vu?
2.4 Recession Economics: The
Post-Crash Telecommunications Sector
Chapter III
RECESSION DYNAMICS: STAKEHOLDER PROSPECTS AND CHALLENGES
3.1 Telephone Operators
3.2 Mobile Operators
3.3 OEMs
Chapter IV
TECHNOLOGY UNCERTAINTY: COMPOUNDING RECOVERY PROSPECTS
4.1 WiMAX and LTE
4.2 Broadband and NGNs
4.3 Mobile Handsets and
Smartphones
4.3.1
Nokia
4.3.2
Samsung
4.3.3
LG Electronics
4.3.4
Sony-Ericsson
4.3.5
Motorola
4.3.6
Apple
4.3.7
RIM
4.3.8
HTC
4.3.9
ZTE/Huawei
4.3.10
Google
Chapter V
SERVICE CHALLENGES: FINDING A NEW VALUE PROPOSITION?
5.1 Fixed-Line and Mobile
Voice-Data Services
5.2 IPTV
5.3 Mobile on Demand Services
CHAPTER VI
Examining Telecommunications Capital Investments by Sector
6.1 The Recession’s Impact on the
Telecom Industry
6.2 The Capital Spending Outlook
6.2.1
Forecast Methodology
6.3 Capital Expenditure on Fixed,
Mobile, Broadband, & Video/IPTV
6.3.1
North America CAPEX Spending by Service Type
6.3.1.1 US CAPEX Spending by Service Type
6.3.1.2 Canada CAPEX Spending by Service Type
6.3.2
EU CAPEX Spending by Service Type
6.3.2.1 UK Spending by Service Type
6.3.2.2 Germany CAPEX Spending by Service Type
6.3.2.3 France CAPEX Spending by Service Type
6.3.3
Japan CAPEX Spending by Service Type
6.3.4
China CAPEX Spending by Service Type
6.3.5
India CAPEX Spending by Service Type
6.4 Fixed Line CAPEX Allocations
by Equipment, Plant, Other
6.4.1
North America Fixed Line Operator CAPEX Allocations
6.4.1.1 US Fixed Line Operator CAPEX Allocations
6.4.1.2 Canada Fixed Line Operator CAPEX Allocations
6.4.2
EU Fixed Line Operator CAPEX Allocations
6.4.2.1 UK Fixed Line Operator CAPEX Allocations
6.4.2.2 Germany Fixed Line Operator CAPEX Allocations
6.4.2.3 France Fixed Line Operator CAPEX Allocations
6.4.3
Japan Fixed Line Operator CAPEX Allocations
6.4.4
China Fixed Line Operator CAPEX Allocations
6.4.5
India Fixed Line Operator CAPEX Allocations
6.5 Broadband Fixed Line CAPEX
Allocations by Equipment, Plant, Other
6.5.1
North American Broadband Allocations
6.5.1.1 US Broadband Allocations
6.5.1.2 Canada Broadband CAPEX Allocations
6.5.2
EU Broadband CAPEX Allocations
6.5.2.1 UK Broadband CAPEX Allocation
6.5.2.2 Germany Broadband CAPEX Allocation
6.5.2.3 France Broadband CAPEX Allocations
6.5.3
Japan Broadband CAPEX Allocations
6.5.4
China Broadband CAPEX Allocations
6.5.5
India Broadband CAPEX Allocations
6.6 North American Operator IPTV
CAPEX by Equipment, Plant, Other
6.6.1
US IPTV CAPEX Allocations
6.6.2
Canada IPTV CAPEX Allocations
6.7 Mobile Operators
6.7.1
North American Mobile CAPEX Allocations
6.7.1.1 US Mobile CAPEX Allocations
6.7.1.2 Canada Mobile CAPEX Allocations
6.7.2
EU Mobile CAPEX Allocations
6.7.2.1 UK Mobile CAPEX Allocations
6.7.2.2 Germany Mobile CAPEX Allocations
6.7.2.3 France Mobile CAPEX Allocations
6.7.3
Japan Mobile CAPEX Allocations
6.7.4
China Mobile CAPEX Allocations
6.7.5
India Mobile CAPEX Allocations
6.8 CAPEX Allocations by Equipment
Type
6.8.1
Equipment Definitions and the OEMs’ Dilemma
6.8.1.1 The OEMs’ Dilemma
6.8.2
North America CAPEX by Equipment Type
6.8.2.1 US CAPEX by Equipment Types
6.8.2.2 Canada CAPEX by Equipment Type
6.8.3
EU CAPEX by Equipment Type
6.8.3.1 UK CAPEX by Equipment Type
6.8.3.2 Germany CAPEX by Equipment Type
6.8.3.3 France CAPEX by Equipment Type
6.8.4
Japan CAPEX by Equipment Type
6.8.5
China CAPEX by Equipment Type
6.8.6
India CAPEX by Equipment Type
Table of Figures
Chapter I
I-1 Operator CAPEX in Select
Markets, 2008-2015
Table of Tables
Chapter II
II-1 North American CAPEX, 2008-2015
II-2 European Union 27 State CAPEX,
2008-2015
II-3 Japan CAPEX, 2008-2015
II-4 China CAPEX, 2008-2015
II-5 India CAPEX, 2008-2015
Chapter IV
IV-1 Handsets: Units, Share, Leading OEMS, 2007-2010
IV-2 Handsets by Region, 2006-2010
Chapter VI
VI-1 Operator CAPEX in Select Markets, 2008-2015
VI-2 North American CAPEX by Service Type, 2008-2015
VI-3 US CAPEX by Service Type, 2008-2015
VI-4 Canada CAPEX by Service Type, 2008-2015
VI-5 EU 27 CAPEX by Service Type, 2008-2015
VI-6 UK CAPEX by Service Type, 2008-2015
VI-7 Germany CAPEX by Service Type, 2008-2015
VI-8 France CAPEX by Service Type, 2008-2015
VI-9 Japan CAPEX by Service Type, 2008-2015
VI-10 China CAPEX by Service Type, 2008-2015
VI-11 India CAPEX by Service Type, 2008-2015
VI-12 North America Fixed Line CAPEX, 2008-2015
VI-13 US Fixed Line CAPEX, 2008-2014
VI-14 Canada Fixed Line CAPEX, 2008-2015
VI-15 EU Fixed Line CAPEX, 2008-2015
VI-16 UK Fixed Line CAPEX, 2008-2015
VI-17 Germany Fixed Line CAPEX, 2008-2015
VI-18 France Fixed Line CAPEX, 2008-2015
VI-19 Japan Fixed Line CAPEX, 2008-2015
VI-20 China Fixed Line CAPEX, 2008-2015
VI-21 India Fixed Line CAPEX, 2008-2015
VI-22 North America Broadband CAPEX, 2008-2015
VI-23 US Broadband CAPEX Allocations, 2008-2015
VI-24 Canada Broadband CAPEX, 2010-2015
VI-25 EU Broadband CAPEX, 2008-2015
VI-26 UK Broadband CAPEX, 2008-2015
VI-27 Germany Broadband CAPEX, 2008-2015
VI-28 France Broadband CAPEX, 2008-2015
VI-29 Japan Broadband CAPEX, 2008-2015
VI-30 China Broadband CAPEX, 2008-2015
VI-31 India Broadband CAPEX, 2008-2015
VI-32 North America IPTV CAPEX, 2008-2015
VI-33 US IPTV CAPEX, 2008-2015
VI-34 Canada IPTV CAPEX, 2008-2015
VI-35 North America Mobile CAPEX, 2008-2015
VI-36 US Mobile CAPEX, 2008-2015
VI-37 Canada Mobile CAPEX, 2008-2015
VI-38 EU Mobile CAPEX, 2008-2015
VI-39 UK Mobile CAPEX, 2008-2015
VI-40 Germany Mobile CAPEX, 2008-2015
VI-41 France Mobile CAPEX, 2008-2015
VI-42 Japan Mobile CAPEX, 2008-2015
VI-43 China Mobile CAPEX, 2008-2015
VI-44 India Mobile CAPEX, 2008-2015
VI-45 North America Equipment CAPEX, 2008-2015
VI-46 USA Equipment CAPEX, 2008-2015
VI-47 Canada Equipment CAPEX, 2008-2015
VI-48 EU Equipment CAPEX , 2008-2015
VI-49 UK Equipment CAPEX, 2008-2015
VI-50 Germany Equipment CAPEX, 2008-2015
VI-51 France Equipment CAPEX, 2008-2015
VI-52 Japan Equipment CAPEX, 2008-2015
VI-53 China Equipment CAPEX, 2008-2015
VI-54 India Equipment CAPEX, 2008-2015
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