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Telecommunications and Capital Investments, 2012-2017:  Impacts of the Financial Crisis on Worldwide Telecommunications

a market research report

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Table of Contents

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Market Segmentation

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The global economic meltdown that began in September, 2008 is still with us, coloring the current economic picture in shades of grey --- and the Euro-zone outlook tending toward even deeper gloom. But what is the consequence for the telecom sector? After all, telecommunications and the Internet are now vital platforms, underpinning trade, industry, finance, and personal communications worldwide.

Services are coming under pricing pressure and margins are eroding, which in turn will affect investment in infrastructure and new technology. Will the credit crunch derail investments in NGNs and converged services? Does the dot-com bust earlier in the decade provide clues for the way forward? Furthermore, how will OEMs fare during the economic maelstrom, where are the opportunities for operators, what are the risks, and which operators are best equipped to weather the crisis?

This report explores the impact of the financial crisis on the telecom sector by quantifying it in dollar terms; then breaking out operator capex spend into its four principal tangible asset categories: equipment; plant ; spectrum license; and other items. Estimates of spend are allocated to fixed line, mobile, and broadband providers. The focus of the analysis will be on operators in North America (breakouts for US and Canada); Europe (breakouts for UK, France, Germany; Asia-Pacific (breakouts for
Japan, China, India); Latin America-Caribbean; and Africa.


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    Report Excerpt

    1.1 The Current Picture: Grey

    These are turbulent times.  The credit market difficulties that had simmered for years erupted into a full-blown financial crisis in September of 2008 which shook the global economic system to its foundation.  Economic growth returned in late 2009: although recovery was expected to be slow, it was nonetheless expected to be sustainable and was expected to reduce high unemployment and improve government finances—especially in developed countries.  On the other hand, the economies of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa  (collectively referred to as BRICS) as well as other select emerging market countries continued to report solid growth throughout the crisis.  This meant that there existed a reasonable probability that growth would return globally.  And indeed, the world economy was picking up steam and appeared to be on the verge of a rebound, or so it was hoped.

    Unfortunately, it did not turn out that way: just as the European economies were moving into growth territory in 2010 the sovereign debt crisis of the Euro zone struck, with Portugal, Ireland and Greece in rapid succession needing European Union (EU) bail-outs if they were to avoid debt default.  These three countries had by mid-2010 been de facto shut out of the  private bond markets because of a loss of investor confidence in their ability to honor their respective financial obligations. The contagion then spread to Spain and Italy, and then to Cyprus, and now Slovenia is being pushed also into the maelstrom of contagion.  Will France and Belgium be next? Already today they are in the cross hairs of rating agencies. 

    Unfortunately, there is no easy fix to the sovereign debt crisis. As a matter of fact, there exists a real possibility of the common currency imploding due to faulty assumptions at its creation; namely, that countries could continue to manage their Euro denominated economies on a national level.  Recent events have proved ....................

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    Market Segmentation

     

    Total Captial Expenditures by Region with Country Break-Outs
            North America
                 US
                 Canada
            Europe
                UK
                Germany
                France
            Asia-Pacific
                Japan
                China
                India
            Latin America - Caribbean
            Africa

    Revenue by Region with Country Break-Outs
            Revenue by Population Count
            Capital Expenditure as a Percent of Revenue

    Captial Expenditures by Investment Category by Region & Country
            Equipment
            Plant
            Licenses
            Other

    Capex Investment by Operator Type by Region
            Fixed Line
            Mobile
            Broadband


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    Table of Contents

     

    Chapter I
    EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
    1.1    The Current Picture: Grey
    1.2    What We Analyzed
    1.3    Summary of Findings
    1.4    elecom Industry Capital Expenditures by Region

    Chapter II
    FINANCIAL CRASH: RECESSION, BAILOUTS AND INSOLVENCIES
    2.1    Economic Conditions and Outlook
    2.2    Telecommunications Sector Outlook
    2.3    Is this Crisis a Déjà vu?

    Chapter III
    RECESSION ECONOMICS: THE POST-CRISES TELECOMMUNICATIONS SECTOR
    3.1    North American Capital Expenditure Indicators
    3.2    European Capital Expenditure Indicators
    3.3    Africa Capital Expenditure Indicators
    3.5    Asia-Pacific Capital Expenditure Indicators
    3.6    Latin America-Caribbean Capital Expenditure Indicators
    3.7   Worldwide Capital Expenditure Indicators

    Chapter IV
    RECESSION DYNAMICS: STAKEHOLDER PROSPECTS AND CHALLENGES
    4.1    Telephone Operators
             4.1.1  Fixed Line Operators
             4.1.2  Mobile Operators
    4.2    Service Providers: Finding a New Value Proposition?
    4.3    OEMs

    Chapter V
    IMPACT OF THE FINANCIAL CRISES ON CAPITAL INVESTMENTS
    5.1.    The Financial Crises: Investment and Financing
    5.2     Capital Spending Post-Financial Crash: Trends and Forecasts
    5.3     Forecasting Sources & Methodology
              5.3.1   The Sources
              5.3.2   The Methodology
    5.4    Capex Forecasts
             5.4.1  North America
             5.4.2  Europe Capex Forecast
             5.4.3  Asia Pacific Capex Forecasts
             5.4.4  Africa Capex Forecasts
             5.4.5  Latin America – Caribbean Capex Forecasts
             5.4.6 Global Capex Forecast
    5.5    Analysis of Equipment Sales Trends
    5.6    Analysis of Infrastructure Sales
    5.7    Operator Market Segment Investments
    5.8    What the Future Holds

    Table of Figures

    Chapter I
    I-1    Operator Capex in Selected Geographies, 2009-2017

    Chapter V
    V-1    Operator Capex in the Regions, 2012-2017
    V-2    Global Capex by Investment Category, 2012-2017
    V-3    North American Capex Investment by Operator Type, 2012-2017
    V-4    Europe Capex Investment by Operator Type, 2012-2017
    V-5    Africa Capex Investment by Operator Type, 2012-2017
    V-6    APAC Capex Investment by Operator Type, 2012-2017
    V-7    LAC Capex Investment by Operator Type, 2012-2017

    Table of Tables

    Chapter I
    I-1    Operator Capex in Selected Geographies, 2009-2017

    Chapter III
    III-1    North America Capex, 2011-2017
    III-2    North America Capex as a Percent of Revenue, 2012-2017
    III-3    North America Revenue and Capex per Population, 2012-2017
    III-4    Europe and Select Country Capex, 2011-2017 ($Billions)
    III-5    Europe and Select Country Capex per Population, 2012-2017
    III-6    Europe Revenue and Revenue per Population, 2012-2017
    III-7    Africa Capex, 2011-2017
    III-8    Africa Capex per Population, 2012-2017
    III-9    Africa Capex as a Percent of Revenue and Revenue per Population, 2012-2017
    III-10  APAC and Select Country Capex, 2011-2017
    III-11  APAC and Select Country Capex per Population, 2012-2017
    III-12  APAC Capex as a Percent of Revenue, 2012-2017
    III-13  APAC Revenue per Population, 2012-2017
    III-14  LAC Region Capex, 2012-2017
    III-15  LAC Region Capex per Population, 2012-2017
    III-16  LAC Region Capex as a Percent of Revenue, 2012-2017
    III-17  LAC Region Revenue per Population, 2012-2017
    III-18  Worldwide Capex as a Percent of Revenue, 2012-2017
    III-19  Worldwide Revenue and Capex per Population, 2012-2017

    Chapter V
    V-1    Operator Capex in the Regions, 2012-2017
    V-2    North America Capex by Investment Category, 2012-2017
    V-3    United States Capex by Investment Category, 2012-2017
    V-4    Canada Capex by Investment Category, 2012-2017
    V-5    Europe Capex by Investment Category, 2012-2017
    V-6    UK Capex by Investment Category, 2012-2017
    V-7    Germany Capex by Investment Category; 2012-2017
    V-8    France Capex by Investment Category, 2012-2017
    V-9    APAC Region Capex by Investment Category, 2012-2017
    V-10  Japan Capex by Investment Category, 2012-2017
    V-11  China Capex by Investment Category; 2012-2017
    V-12  India Capex by Investment Category, 2012-2017
    V-13  Africa Capex by Investment Category; 2012-2017
    V-14  LAC Region Capex by Investment Category, 2012-2017
    V-15  Global Capex by Investment Category, 2012-2017
    V-16  North American Capex Investment by Operator Type, 2012-2017
    V-17  Europe Capex Investment by Operator Type, 2012-2017
    V-18  Africa Capex Investment by Operator Type, 2012-2017
    V-19  APAC Capex Investment by Operator Type, 2012-2017
    V-20  LAC Capex Investment by Operator Type, 2012-2017


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