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IP Telephony:  Service Revenue and OSS Expenditures for Voice over Packet Networks

2002-2007

a market research report

Report Excerpt

Market Segmentation

Table of Contents

Press Release

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Download the Executive Summary.

The telecom industry has been banking, quite literally, on strong growth of packet networks to handle the burgeoning growth of Internet traffic, and to provide a platform for creating new multimedia services.  Unlike the fiber glut, where network capacity literally outran the amount of traffic generated by revenue-producing services, voice over packet (VoP) was a success.  

But the increasing amount of revenue-generating voice traffic that is migrating to packet networks is a double-edged sword, making the very success of VoP a problem with which the telecom industry must now deal.  So why is VoP still considered a success? 

Service providers are looking for ways to generate new revenue, or improve their cost structure by deploying VoP technology in selective portions of their networks. With VoP, large enterprises with sufficient data network capacity and voice traffic patterns can avoid service charges and implement conferencing, messaging, and other enhanced services more cost effectively.

For another group of service providers, however, most of the VoP revenue they reap is displacing a larger amount of circuit-switched revenue, given overall pricing declines for voice. The newer services (and revenue opportunities) are just beginning to be defined. 

Insight's  study of VoP is our contribution to a critical debate at a critical juncture in the history of the telecommunications industry.  The question that this study attempts to answer is whether traditional service providers can create and deploy new voice services based on packet technology, which will counteract the overall decline in voice pricing, and become the engine for new revenue growth.

 


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    Report Excerpt

    As industry pundits examine the detritus of the telecom implosion, the slow deployment of converged networks is often cited as an important factor in the industry’s crash.  The telecom industry was banking, quite literally, on continued strong growth of packet networks to handle the burgeoning growth of Internet traffic, and to provide a platform for creating new multimedia services.  However, unlike the “fiber glut,” where network capacity literally outran the amount of traffic generated by revenue-bearing services, voice services over packet networks (VoP) was a success.  Increasing amounts of revenue-generating voice traffic are migrating to packet networks—making the very success of VoP a problem with which the telecom industry must now deal.

    Converging voice with data on a single network means that carriers will ultimately be able to reduce operating expenses, even as they create new multimedia services.  Yet the data-centric nature of today’s converged voice traffic is displacing carriers’ larger circuit-switched revenue stream before such new multimedia services can be offered.

    The rationale behind converging traditional circuit-switched, voice-oriented networks with the new packet networks is as strong as ever.  There are many ways to measure communications volumes, such as connections, lines, bits, and dollars.  All of these measures are subject to interpretation and dispute, but there is no question that data communications is growing much more rapidly than voice.  Voice traffic has been growing at 10 to 15 percent per year, and this growth rate is slowing.  Data traffic, on the other hand, has been growing at an annual percentage rate in the triple digits since the early 1990s.  Over the same period of time, the cost of transporting a megabyte of data has declined.

    If the cost of transporting data declines as volumes increase, why is voice still handled as a separate form of media requiring its own network, rather than as just another form of data?  The answer to this question is a surprise to no one— the investment of hundreds of billions of dollars sunk into the embedded circuit-switched infrastructure cannot be migrated overnight.  It is difficult to justify investments in new converged technology when that technology will deliver the same services (at least initially) that are already offered. 

    Moreover, the price erosion of voice service makes it even more difficult to achieve the required return on investment (ROI) in the short time periods required by the economic environment of 2002.  For some service providers ...

    Click here for the complete Executive Summary.


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    Market Segmentation

     

    • Total Telecom Revenue by Service Provider Type
      • North American
        • ILECs (RBOCs/Independents)
        • CLECs
        • IXCs
        • Cable MSOs
        • Internet Service Providers
        • Cellular/PCS
    • Total Telecom Revenue by Region
      • Wireline and Wireless
        • Asia/Pacific
        • Europe/Middle East/Africa
        • Latin America/Caribbean

    • Voice Revenue by Service Provider Type
      • North American
        • ILECs (RBOCs/Independents)
        • CLECs
        • Traditional IXCs
        • NexGen IXCs
        • Cable MSOs
        • Internet Service Providers
        • Cellular/PCS
    • Voice Revenue by Region
      • Wireline and Wireless
        • Asia/Pacific
        • Europe/Middle East/Africa
        • Latin America/Caribbean

    • Worldwide VoP Revenues
      • Wireline and Wireless
    • VoP Revenues by Segment
      • North America
        • ILECs (RBOCs/Independents)
        • CLECs
        • Traditional IXCs
        • NexGen IXCs
        • Cable MSOs
        • Internet Service Providers
        • Cellular/PCS
      • International (Rest of World)
        • Wireline and Wireless
    • Worldwide OSS Expenditures for VoP by Application
      • North America
        • Wireline and Wireless
          • Call Center Operations
          • Billing
          • Planning & Engineering
          • Provisioning
          • Trouble/Repair
          • Network Management
          • Element Management
          • Business Management
          • Workforce Management
      • International (Rest of World)
        • Wireline vs. Wireless
          • Call Center Operations
          • Billing
          • Planning & Engineering
          • Provisioning
          • Trouble/Repair
          • Network Management
          • Element Management
          • Business Management
          • Workforce Management
    • VoP OSS Expenditures as % of Total OSS Expenditures
      • North American
        • Wireline vs. Wireless
      • International (Rest of World)
        • Wireline vs. Wireless


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    Table of Contents

     

    Chapter I
    EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

    1.1 Overview
    1.2 The Technology
    1.3 The Market

    Chapter II
    OVERVIEW
    2.1 Introduction
    2.2 Definitions
    2.3 How It All Started
    2.4 How Data Growth Impacts Voice
    2.5 VoP Changes Everything

    Chapter III
    PACKET TELEPHONY TECHNOLOGY

    3.1 Fundamentals of Network Design
    3.1.1 Packet Switching vs. Circuit Switching
    3.1.2 Standards, Protocols, and Architectures
    3.1.3 The IP Suite of Protocols
    3.1.3.1 IP Protocol Details 
    3.1.3.2 Media Protocols
    3.1.3.2.1 RTP
    3.1.3.2.2 RTCP
    3.1.3.2.3 RTSP 
    3.1.3.3 Signaling Protocols
    3.1.3.4 Gateway Protocols
    3.1.3.4.1 MGCP/Megaco Overview     
    3.1.3.4.2 MGCP Functionality                    
    3.1.3.5 H.323
    3.1.3.5.1 Overview
    3.1.3.5.2 Architecture
    3.1.3.5.3 Protocols 
    3.1.3.5.4 Call Procedure
    3.1.3.5.5 Network Element Protocol Support 
    3.1.3.6 SIP
    3.1.3.6.1 Overview
    3.1.3.6.2 Architecture
    3.1.3.6.3 Protocols 
    3.1.3.6.4 Call Procedure 
    3.1.3.6.5 Network Element Protocol Support
    3.1.3.7 Softswitch Architecture    
    3.1.3.7.1 Softswitch/Media Gateway Controllers  
    3.1.3.7.2 Media and Signaling Gateways
    3.1.3.8 Media Servers                 
    3.2 ATM
    3.2.1 Frame Relay
    3.3 Existing Network Structure
    3.3.1 Voice Network Structure                
    3.3.1.1 Central Offices
    3.3.1.2 Local Distribution Network
    3.3.1.3 Interoffice Networks 
    3.3.1.4 IntraLATA and InterLATA Networks
    3.3.1.5 POTS Signaling Network
    3.3.2 Data Networks Structure (Frame Relay Example)
    3.3.2.1 How Frame Relay Works
    3.3.2.2 Committed Information Rates and Traffic Management 
    3.3.3 Internet Structure
    3.3.4 Physical Access Methods           
    3.3.4.1 xDSL 
    3.3.4.2 Cable Modem  
    3.3.4.3 Mobile and Fixed Wireless  
    3.4 Merging Network Architectures  
    3.5 Voice in a Packet
    3.5.1 Compression and Packetization 
    3.5.2 Problems with Packetization and Compression
    3.6    Voice over Packet Architecture Scenarios
    3.6.1 Network Components
    3.6.2 Using Different Customer Premises Equipment
    3.6.2.1 PC-to-PC
    3.6.2.2 PC-to-Phone
    3.6.2.3 Phone-to-Phone  
    3.6.3 Using Different Networks  
    3.6.3.1 Voice over the Internet
    3.6.3.2 Voice over Private IP Network
    3.6.3.3 Voice over ATM
    3.6.3.4 Voice over Frame Relay
    3.6.3.5 Voice over DSL
    3.6.3.6 Voice over Cable
    3.6.3.7 Voice over Packet Wireless
    3.7 Summary

    Chapter IV  
    DEMAND AND SUPPLY

    4.1 Market Trends
    4.1.1 Tariff Avoidance
    4.1.2 Business and Residential Internet Services Demand 
    4.1.2.1 E-Commerce Applications
    4.1.2.2 Unified Messaging
    4.1.2.3 Conferencing
    4.1.2.4 Mobility Management
    4.1.2.5 Instant Messaging
    4.1.3 The Future Network Structure
    4.2 Service Provider Implementations. 
    4.2.1 IXCs. 
    4.2.2 NexGen IXCs  
    4.2.3 ILECs 
    4.2.4 CLECs
    4.2.5 ISPs
    4.2.6 Cable TV MSOs
    4.2.7 Wireless  
    4.2.8 Enterprises  

    Chapter V  
    CARRIER AND VENDOR MARKET STRATEGIES

    5.1 Service Providers
    5.2 Platform Providers
    5.3 Middleware Vendors
    5.4 Voice over Broadband Gateway Vendors

    Chapter VI  
    VOICE OVER PACKET MARKET FORECAST

    6.1 Overview
    6.1.1 Definitions  
    6.1.2 Methodology Overview
    6.1.3 Special Notes  
    6.2 VoP Market Assumptions
    6.2.1 Telecommunications and Voice Revenue Forecasts  
    6.2.2 OSS Addressable Market Forecasting
    6.2.2.1 Methodology Algorithm
    6.2.2.2 VoP OSS Expenditues Methodology
    6.3 VoP Service Revenue
    6.3.1 North American VoP Revenue  
    6.3.2 International VoP Service Revenue
    6.4 VoP OSS Expenditures
    6.4.1 North American Wireline VoP OSS Expenditures
    6.4.2 North American Wireless VoP OSS Expenditures. 
    6.4.3 International Wireline VoP OSS Expenditures
    6.4.4 International Wireless VoP OSS Expenditures   

    Appendix  
    Glossary
    Companies Cited

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    Table of Figures

    Chapter I  
    I-1 Pros of Converged Networks  
    I-2 Worldwide Voice Revenues, VoP vs Circuit, Wireline vs. Wireless, 2007-2007 ($Millions) 

    Chapter II  
    II-1 Circuit vs. Packet Switching   
    II-2 Voice/Data Traffic Growth, 2002-2007 (Gbp/s)  

    Chapter III  
    III-1 Protocols for Real-Time Communications 
    III-2 Typical IP Header Format for a Packet 
    III-3 MGCP Architecture 
    III-4 Typical H.323 Network Architecture 
    III-5 Example of an H.323 Call Flow 
    III-6 Basic Components of a SIP Network 
    III-7 Example of a SIP Call Flow in Proxy Mode 
    III-8 SIP Network Interconnection with the PSTN 
    III-9 Softswitch Architecture 
    III-10 Virtual Paths and Circuits within a Transmission Link 
    III-11 ATM Cell Format 
    III-12 ATM Protocol Stack 
    III-13 Frame Relay’s Frame Structure 
    III-14 National PSTN Elements 
    III-15 Local Distribution Network Architecture 
    III-16 Local Connections to Interexchange Networks 
    III-17 Signaling System #7 Network
    III-18 Permanent Virtual Circuits in a Meshed Frame Relay Network 
    III-19 Converged Networks 
    III-20 Three Different Types of IP Telephony Services 
    III-21 Voice over DSL Generic Architecture 
    III-22 Cable Frequency Spectrum Allocation 
    III-23 VoP over a 3G Packet Network 

    Chapter V  
    V-1 Genuity’s US VoIP Nodes and Fiber Networking 
    V-2 CopperCom’s Voice over Broadband Solution 
    V-3 NMS Communications’ Voice over Broadband Architecture 

    Chapter VI  
    VI-1 Voice/Data Traffic Growth, 2002-2007 (Gbp/s) 
    VI-2 Comparison of Voice and Data Revenue, 2002 
    VI-3 Components of IT Budget in 2002 
    VI-4 OSS Component Mix, 2002 and 2007 
    VI-5 Worldwide Voice Revenues, VoP vs. Circuit, Wireline vs. Wireless ($Millions)
    VI-6 North American VoP Revenue Shares by Service Provider Segment, 2002 and. 2007 
    VI-7 VoP OSS and Total OSS Expenditures vs. VoP and Total Service Revenue, 2002-2007 
    VI-8 OSS Expenditures for VoP by OSS Application Type, 2002 and 2007 
    VI-9  VoP OSS Expenditues Growth as a Percentage of Total OSS Expenditures, 2002-2007 

    Table of Tables  

    Chapter III  
    III-1 Conversion Steps from Requesting to Receiving Data from a Web Page. 
    III-2 Types of DSL
    III-3  Mobile Wireless Standards (First, Second, and Third Generation) 
    III-4 Voice vs. Data Network Technology Development 
    III-5 Types of Voice Coding Delays
    III-6 Latency, Packet Loss, and Reachability Statistics of Large ISPs, August 2002
    III-7 Number of Circuit Equivalents Achievable with Various Voice over DSL Connections
    III-8 Percentage of Two-Way Capable Homes, Largest Cable Operators, 2000 and 2001

    Chapter IV  
    IV-1 Service Parameters for a Follow-Me Service 

    Chapter VI
    VI-1  Geography Definitions 
    VI-2  Service Provider Definitions 
    VI-3  Systems Component Categories 
    VI-4  Total Telecom Revenue by Service Provider Type, North America, 2002-2007 ($Millions) 
    VI-5  Total Telecom Revenue by Region, International Wireline and Wireless, 2002-2007 ($Millions) 
    VI-6  Worldwide Telecom Revenue, Wireline and Wireless, 2002-2007 ($Millions) VI-7  Voice Revenue by Service Provider Type, North America, 2002-2007 ($Millions) 
    VI-8  Voice Revenue by Region, International Wireline and Wireless, 2002-2007 ($Millions) 
    VI-9  Worldwide Voice Revenue, Wireline and Wireless, 2002-2007 ($Millions) VI-10 Investment Payback Horizons by Market Segment 
    VI-11 Worldwide OSS Expenditure Distribution by OSS Type, 2002 and 2007 
    VI-12 Worldwide VoP Revenue, Wireline and Wireless Service Providers, 2002-2007 ($Millions) 
    VI-13 North American VoP Revenue by Service Provider Segment, 2002-2007 ($Millions) 
    VI-14 International VoP Revenue, Wireline and Wireless, 2002-2007 ($Millions) 
    VI-15 Worldwide OSS Expenditures for VoP by Application, 2002-2007 ($Millions) VI-16 North American OSS Expenditures for VoP, Wireline Applications, 2002-2007 ($Millions) 
    VI-17 North American OSS Expenditures for VoP, Wireless Applications, 2002-2007 ($Millions) 
    VI-18 International OSS Expenditures for VoP, Wireline Applications, 2002-2007 ($Millions) 
    VI-19 International OSS Expenditures for VoP, Wireless Applications, 2002-2007 ($Millions) 
    VI-20 VoP OSS Expenditures as a Percentage of Total OSS Expenditures, 2002-2007 


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