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The 2011 Telecommunications Industry Review: An Anthology of Market Facts
and Forecasts
a market research report
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The 2011 Telecom Industry Review summarizes current
conditions across the global telecommunications industry, providing
analysis of over a dozen infrastructure and service segments. From
fundamental background issues to detailed five-year forecasts
accompanied by practical strategic advice, this study provides a
sweeping examination of the telecom marketplace.
The Review provides up-to-date information in such key areas as
high-speed access, optical networking, VoIP, gateways, cable telephony,
residential and business communications trends, and new opportunities
such as fixed mobile convergence, various IP-based applications
delivered as services, and IPTV. Whether you are an industry
veteran or new to telecom, the 2011 Telecom Industry Review will serve
as a frequently referenced yearbook, supplying hard data and sound
analysis on pressing service and equipment issues. Concise, clear, and
current, the review is a detailed strategic tool that amasses a year’s
worth of telecom research— over a dozen segments— into one
comprehensive resource.
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Report Excerpt
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1.1 Telecommunications Industry Economic
Conditions
At the beginning of 2011, global financial markets seemed to have regained
their composure, though in the US it is apparent that the greatest economic
downturn since the Great Depression of the 1930s is still with us. The
sharp drop in credit markets worldwide was directly tied to problems in the
US mortgage industry, which ground to a halt during 2008—and its negative
impacts on domestic growth and consumer confidence is still very much in
evidence as we enter 2011.
While much of global economy has recovered, the US economy measured by GDP
is plainly still in the doldrums. A GDP of over four percent is needed to
substantially impact the jobless rate in a positive direction. In 2008, the
US GDP for the year was only .4 percent. However, the third and fourth
quarters were particularly dismal at -2.7 and -5.4 respectively. By the
first quarter of 2009, the GDP hit a 27-year low of -6.4 which was the same
number as in the first quarter of 1982 which was also a time of double digit
unemployment. In the first quarter of 2010 GDP increased by 3.7 percent, in
the second quarter of 2010 GDP increased by 1.7 percent and in the third
quarter of 2010 GDP increased by 2 percent. This news buoyed the stock
market, but has had virtually no effect on unemployment.
Entering 2011 US joblessness and domestic consumer confidence continue to
act as a drag on the economy. According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics
(BLS), the employment picture is not sanguine. In August and September of
2008, unemployment hit 6.1 percent. In October of 2008, unemployment rose to
6.5 percent. By October of 2009, unemployment hit 10.2 percent, its highest
rate since the end of 1982 when unemployment hit 10.8 percent. By the close
of 2010, while not accepting it, the US has become accustomed to an
unemployment rate hovering around 10 percent with no indication that this
rate will improve over the next year. Although many indicators show that the
“Great” Recession (not to be confused with the Great Depression in the
1930’s) is finally over, the unemployment rate is one indicator that
demonstrates that the recovery will be painfully slow. With a stagnant US
economy the business opportunities for telecommunications providers seem
harder to find than ever before.
Even amidst so much economic uncertainty, the fact remains that
telecommunications ............
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Market Segmentation
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Telecommunications Industry Markets
By Geography
North America
Europe/Middle East/Africa
Latin America/Caribbean
Asia/Pacific
Global Carrier Revenue by Region,
2008 and 2013 Distribution of Global Carrier Revenue by Region
Service Provider Revenue By Provider Type
Worldwide Telecom Revenue Forecast by Services Category
Broadband Service Revenue Distribution by Service Type
North American Broadband Wireline Revenue
Impact of New Wireless Data Service Usage on ARPU
EMEA Broadband Wireline Revenue
Asia Pacific Broadband Wireline Revenue
LAC Broadband Wireline Revenue
Wireless Subscribers by Global Region 2002-2011
Distribution of Wireless Networks by Technology Type
Wireless Network Deployment Status, 2005 and 2006
Revenue for 2G, 2.5G, and 3G Market Segments by Region
Regional Subscriber Growth 2002-2005
Total Wireline and Wireless BBand Narrowband Revenues
Broadband Services Revenue Distribution
Next Generation Network Infrastructure
US Broadband Switches Compared with Increase in Throughput
Wireline SS7 Queries 2003-2008
Impacts of VoIP on International Telecommunications Services
Total US Public Ethernet Revenues, 2005-2012
Worldwide Gateway Revenue Forecast
Total Worldwide Services Delivery Platform Revenues, 2006-2011
Worldwide Services Delivery Platform Revenues by Provider Type
Wavelength Services Revenue Totals
Total Worldwide Optical Equipment Market 2007-2012
Worldwide Fiber Deployment: New Additions 2007-2012
Access Network
US Wireline End User Switched Access Lines 1999-2006
Landline Telephone Penetration Percentage US, 1999-2006
US Wireline Telephone Calls 1999-2005
US Wireless-Only Households, 2002-2006
US Access Line Substitution, Residential and Business, 2002-2006
BB Penetration by Technology in Top 20 Economies
Broadband Penetration as a Percentage of Households by Region
Worldwide Broadband Lines by Region, 2006-2011
Cell Phone Penetration as a Percentage of All Phone Subscribers,
Wireline vs. Mobile Phone
Growth 1995-2004 )
Number of Cons BB Lines with Wireless Home Net By Region
Cellular and Wireline Phone Penetration Per Capita by Global Region
Cellular Subscribers By Global Region 2006-2012
Total Worldwide FMC Carrier & Equipment Vendor Revenue
Number of Consumer Brdband Lines w/Wireless
Home Ntwrking
OSSes, BSSes & Outsourcing
Outsourced Services Market Estimate for Wireline and Wireless
Present & Future Services
IP-Based Application Services
Worldwide Residential Video Telephony Service Revenues
Worldwide File Sharing/File Downloading Services Revenues
Worldwide Wireline File Sharing/File Downloading Srvcs Rev.
Worldwide Wireless File Sharing/File Downloading Srvcs Rev.
Worldwide Audio/Video Streaming Services Revenues
Worldwide Location-Based Services Service Revenues
Worldwide Presence-Based Services Revenue
International VoIP Traffic By Region
North American Inbound MOUs with VoIP
North American Outbound MOUs with VoIP
Caribbean Inbound MOUs with VoIP
Caribbean Outbound MOUs with VoIP
Central America Inbound MOUs with VoIP
Central America Outbound MOUs with VoIP
Latin America Inbound MOUs with VoIP
Latin America Outbound MOUs with VoIP
Europe Inbound MOUs with VoIP )
Europe Outbound MOUs with VoIP
Asia Inbound MOUs with VoIP
Asia Outbound MOUs with VoIP
Africa Inbound MOUs with VoIP
Africa Outbound MOUs with VoIP
Oceania Inbound MOUs with VoIP
Oceania Outbound MOUs with VoIP
Enterprise Markets
Classification of US Businesses
US Business Distribution: All Business Sizes
Business Establishments by Industry Sector & Business Size
Business Lines: Distribution by Industry Sector
Total Private Line Revenue
Managed Wide Area Network Endpoints by Type
Internet Traffic and IT Staffing
US Managed Services Revenues
Total US Telecom Wireline Market, 2005 and 2010
Top-Tier Expenditures for Telecom Wireline Services
Total US Telecom Wireless Services, 2005 and 2010
Top-Tier Expenditures for Telecom Wireless Services
Total US Healthcare Telecom Service Revenues
Total US Mobile Enterprise Application Service Revenues, 2007-2012
Worldwide Grid Spending
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Table of Contents
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Chapter I
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1.1 Telecommunications Industry Economic Conditions
1.2 Report Structure
Chapter II
BACKGROUND:
Telecommunication Industry Markets
2.1 Telecommunications Market Conditions
2.1.1 Wireline Market Trends
2.1.2 Broadband Market Trends
2.2 Wireless Industry Markets
2.2.1 Differences Between Wireless Mobile Technologies
2.2.2 Wireless Market Trends
2.3 Cable Industry Markets
2.3.1 Cable Industry Evolution
2.3.2 IP Cable Telephony
2.3.3 US Cable Subscriber Growth
Chapter III
THE NEXT-GENERATION COMMUNICATIONS NETWORK:
Improvements to the Infrastructure
3.1 Overview of Network Topology
3.1.1 End-Users
3.1.2 Access Networks
3.1.3 Metro Networks
3.1.4 Core Networks
3.2 Transmission Improvements
3.3 Overview of Switching Technologies
3.3.1 Circuit Switching vs. Packet Switching
3.4 The Public Switched Telephone Network
3.4.1 Evolution of the PSTN
3.4.2 Changes to the PSTN?
3.4.3 Central Offices
3.5 Data Networks and VoIP
3.5.1 Broadband Switches
3.5.2 Data Core Networks
3.5.3 Data Metro Networks
3.5.4 Data Access Networks
3.5.5 Signaling and Support Structures for Data Networks
3.5.6 Voice over Internet Protocol
3.5.7 VoIP as Transport
3.5.8 VoIP Operational Advantage
3.5.9 VoIP as Value-Added Stage
3.6 Carrier Ethernet Networks
3.6.1 E-line
3.6.2 E-LAN
3.6.3 Other Typologies: Dedicated vs. Switched
3.6.4 Carrier Ethernet Market Forecast
3.7 The Next Generation Network
3.7.1 Gateways
3.7.2 Softswitches
3.7.3 Service Delivery Platforms
3.7.4 IP Multimedia Subsystems
3.8 Optical Networking
3.8.1 Baseline Optical Transport Technologies
3.8.2 Optical Transport Technology Overview
3.8.3 Current Gaps in Baseline Transport Technologies
3.8.4 The Hybrid Approach to Optical Transport Technologies
3.8.5 Optical Equipment Market Revenue Estimates
3.8.6 Wavelength Service Market Trends
Chapter IV
THE ACCESS NETWORK:
Narrowband and Broadband
4.1 Narrowband: The Decline of US Landlines
4.2 Broadband Access Networks
4.2.1 Broadband Access Forecasts
4.3 Fixed Network Access Technology Options
4.3.1 DSL
4.3.2 Cable
4.3.3 Bonded Copper
4.3.4 Fiber to the X Networks
4.3.5 Broadband over Power Line
4.4 Wireless Broadband Access
4.4.1 Wireless Fidelity
4.4.2 Multichannel Multipoint Distribution Service
4.4.3 Worldwide Interoperability for Microwave Access
4.5 Satellite Broadband
Chapter V
SUPPORTING THE INFRASTRUCTURE:
OSSes, BSSes Equipment, and Outsourcing
5.1 Operations Support Systems Overview
5.2 Operations Support Applications
5.2.1 Business Operations Support
5.2.2 Network Operations Support
5.2.3 Network Management
5.4 Outsourcing
5.4.1 Vendor Activity Summary
5.4.2 The Market for Outsourcing Services
Chapter VI
PRESENT AND FUTURE
COMMUNICATIONS SERVICES MARKETS
6.1 IP-Based Application Services
6.1.1 Introduction & Definitions
6.1.2 VoIP as a Non-Starter
6.1.3 Key IP Service Trends
6.1.4 Market Forecast
6.2 Worldwide VoIP Adoption
6.2.1 North America International VoIP Traffic
6.2.2 Caribbean International VoIP Traffic
6.2.3 Central America International VoIP Traffic
6.2.4 Latin America International VoIP Traffic
6.2.5 Europe International VoIP Traffic
6.2.6 Asia International VoIP Traffic
6.2.7 Africa International VoIP Traffic
6.2.8 Oceania International VoIP Traffic
6.3 Telecommunications Role in Improving the Environment
6.3.1 Modeling the Benefits of Green
6.4 Mobile Phones and Financial Applications
6.4.1 Core Banking Solutions and Mobile Phones
6.4.2 Financial Applications for Mobile Phones
6.4.3 Revenue Potential of Financial Applications for Mobile Phones
6.5 The Future of Telecommunications
6.5.1 IP Changes Everything
6.5.2 Convergence Cuts Both Ways
6.5.3 The Road Ahead for Operators
6.5.4 The Road Ahead for OEMs
Chapter VII
ENTERPRISE TELECOMMUNICATIONS MARKETS
7.1 The Classification of Businesses by Size
7.1.1 Distribution of Business by Size
7.1.2 The Business Line Market Methodology and Analysis
7.1.3 The Business Line Market in Small Enterprises
7.2 Private Lines
7.2.1 Evolution in the Private Line Services Market
7.2.2 Circuit Types
7.2.3 SONET, IP and Private Lines
7.2.4 Private Line Circuit Layout
7.2.5 Redundancy & Restoration
7.2.6 Private Line Alternatives
7.2.7 Private Line Market Analysis
7.3 Managed Services & the Enterprise
7.3.1 Why Managed Services?
7.3.2 Industry Structure
7.3.3 Managed Service Industry Forecast
7.4 Vertical Industry Focus: Healthcare
7.4 1 Healthcare Ready for Change
7.4.2. Market Estimate of Healthcare Telecom Spending
7.5 The Mobile Workforce and Enterprise Applications
7.5.1 Mobile Enterprise Market Forecasts
7.6 Enterprise Unified Communications
7.6.1 Defining Unified Communications
7.6.2 The Benefits of Unified Communications
7.6.3 Unified Communications: Dedicated versus Hosted
7.6.4 The Stakeholders
7.6.5 Unified Communications Markets and Revenue
7.7 US Cable Operators Push into Enterprise Services
7.7.1 CableCos Appear Well Positioned to Compete in Enterprise Markets
7.7.2 CableCos Deploying Commercial Services
7.7.4 CableCos Enterprise Market Forecast
Table of Figures
Chapter II
II-1 Broadband Services Revenue Distribution, 2011 and 2016
II-2 EMEA Broadband Wireline Revenue, 2011-2016
II-3 Asia Pacific Broadband Wireline Revenue, 2011-2016
II-4 LAC Broadband Wireline Revenue, 2011-2016
II-5 Impact of New Wireless Data Service Usage on Average Revenue per User
II-6 Circuit Switched with Hybrid IP Network Architecture
II-7 Cable IP Telephony
II-8 Basic DOCSIS
II-9 Basic PacketCable Architecture
Chapter III
III-1 Public Communication Network Architecture
III-2 SONET Ring Configuration
III-3 Hierarchy of Broadband Switch Functions
III-4 Typical National Data Core Network
III-5 E-Line Point-to-Point Service Type
III-6 E-LAN Multipoint-to-Multipoint Service Type
III-7 Total US Public Ethernet Revenues, 2010-2015
III-8 Worldwide Gateway Revenue Forecast, 2008-2013
III-9 Softswitch Architecture Diagram
III-10 Circuit vs. Packet Switching of Internet Traffic
III-11 SDP Service Provider Network Architecture
III-12 Total Worldwide Services Delivery Platform Revenues, 2006-2011
III-13 STS-1 Frame Structure
III–14 STM-1 Frame Structure
III-15 Four-Channel DWDM System
III-16 Schematic of an MPLS Network
III-17 Label Header Structure
III-18 MPLS over WDM Core
III-19 Worldwide Optical Equipment Sales, 2008-2013
III-20 Worldwide Fiber Sales, 2008-2013
III-21 Managed Wavelength Service Evolution Path
Chapter IV
IV-1 Landline Telephone Penetration Percentage US, 1999-2006
IV-2 Historical Landline vs. Wireless Penetrations, 1990-2006
IV-3 US VoIP Households, 2007-2012 (Millions)
IV-4 HFC Architecture Providing Video and Voice Services
IV-5 Typical Backhaul Configuration
IV-6 Typical DSLAM Backhaul Application
IV-7 High Speed Data over Copper Service Provider Revenue, 2007-2012
IV-8 Typical FTTH Deployment
IV-9 Verizon FiOS Architecture Overview (FTTP)
IV-10 Verizon FiOS Premise Architecture (FTTP)
IV-11 FTTB Deployment Architecture
IV-12 FTTC Deployment Architecture
IV-13 FTTN Architecture
IV-14 AT&T U-Verse (FTTN) Architecture Overview
IV-15 AT&T U-Verse Premise Architecture ( FTTN)
IV-16 AON Architecture
IV-17 PON Architecture
IV-18 Typical BPL Architecture
IV-19 Premise BPL Modem Architecture: Typical Configuration
IV-20 LOS WiMAX Topology
IV-21 NLOS WiMAX Topology
IV-22 Sector Topology
IV-23 Satellite (DBS) Broadband Data Network Architecture
Chapter V
V-1 Operations Support Systems Dataflow
V-2 Business Operations Systems Dataflow
Chapter VI
VI-1 Worldwide IP Services Market by Service Type, 2008-2013
VI-2 Worldwide Green Communications Technologies Revenues, 2008-2013
VI-3 Global Total Revenue Opportunity for Mobile Financial Applications,
2009-2014
VI-4 Telecom Networking Before and After IP
VI-5 Worldwide Telecommunications Operators Capital Expenditures
Chapter VII
VII-1 Capacities of 64 Kbit/s, T1, and T3 Circuits
VII-2 Typical Layout for a Full Circuit
VII-3 ISDN Switched Backup
VII-4 SONET Rings
VII-5 Fiber-to-Fiber Redundancy
VII-6 Cable-to-Cable Physical Redundancy (Diverse Cable Redundancy)
VII-7 Total Private Line Revenue, 2010-2015
VII-8 Managed Services Gross Margins
VII-9 US Managed Services Revenues, 2010-2015
VII-10 Total US Healthcare Telecom Service Revenues, 2009-2014
VII-11 Employment Growth by Major Sector, 2005 and 2012
VII-12 Percentage Growth by Occupational Title and Mobility, 2004-2014
VII-13 Total US Mobile Application Service Revenues, 2007-2012
VII-14 Breakdown of UC Market According to Implementation Methodologies
VII-15 Total Global Market for All UC Segments
VII-16 US Telecommunications Revenue by Market, 2009
VII-17 US MSO Commercial Service Revenues, 2010-2014
Table of Tables
Chapter I
I-1 Global Carrier Revenue by Region 2011-2016
I-2 Worldwide Telecom Revenue Forecast by Services Category, 2011-2016
Chapter II
II-1 Global Carrier Revenue by Region, 2011-2016
II-2 2011 and 2016 Distribution of Global Carrier Revenue by Region
II-3 Worldwide Service Provider Revenue, 2011-2016
II-4 Wireline Subscriber Growth, 2011-2016
II-5 Worldwide Telecom Revenue Forecast by Services Category, 2011-2016
II-6 Broadband Consumer Applications and Required Bandwidth
II-7 North American Broadband Wireline Revenue by Market Segment
II-8 Regional Wireless Subscribers, 2011-2016
II-9 Regional Wireless Penetration by Population, 2011-2016
II-10 Wireless Data Technologies Comparison
II-11 Revenue for 2G, 2.5G, and 3G Market Segments by Region, 2010-2015
II-12 DOCSIS Evolution: Service Comparison
II-13 DOCSIS Evolution: Customer Equipment Supported
II-14 DOCSIS Evolution: Upload/Download Speeds Supported
II-15 Growth in Cable Subscribers by Service Type, 2011-2016
Chapter III
III-1 Definitions of Digital Private Line Services
III-2 SONET Data Rates
III-3 Distinctions between POTS and Data Networks
III-4 Network Locations of Broadband Switches
III-5 Downstream DSL Bit-rates vs. Reach
III-6 Total Number of SS7 Queries for U.S. Access Line Calls, 2009–2014
III-7 Percent of Broadband Consumers Adopting VoIP, 2008-2013
III-8 US VoIP Subscribers, 2004-2008
III-9 US VoIP Segment Size and SIP Invite Transaction Growth, 2009-2014
III-10 Characteristics of Ethernet Service Varieties
III-11 Gateway Definitions
III-12 Softswitch Advantages/Disadvantages
III-13 Economic Benefits of Softswitch Technology
III-14 Strategies to Increase Network Service Margins
III-15 Worldwide Services Delivery Platform Revenues by Provider Type
III-16 Interrelationship between STM, STS, OC, and Gbit/s
III-17 ITU’s Laser Grid
III-18 Worldwide Fiber Sales, 2008-2013
III-19 Wavelength Market Segments
III-20 Wavelength Services Revenue Totals, 2009-2014
Chapter IV
IV-1 US Wireline End User Switched Access Lines 1999-2006
IV-2 US Wireline Telephone Calls, 1999-2005
IV-3 Broadband Communication Network Access Solutions
IV-4 Broadband Penetration as a Percentage of Households, 2008 and 2013
IV-5 Worldwide Broadband Lines, 2008-2013
IV-6 The Versions and Features of xDSL
IV-7 WiMAX NLOS Broadband Performance
IV-8 Representative Satellite Service Package Speed
Chapter V
V-1 OSS Definitions Summary
V-2 Characteristics of Broadband Network Management
V-3 Distinct Characteristics of Packet Broadband Network Management
V-4 Vendor Activity Summary
V-5 Outsourced Services Market Estimate for Wireline and Wireless, 2008-2013
Chapter VI
VI-1 North American Inbound MOUs with VoIP, 2002-2011
VI-2 North American Outbound MOUs with VoIP, 2002-2011
VI-3 Caribbean Inbound MOUs with VoIP, 2002-2011
VI-4 Caribbean Outbound MOUs with VoIP, 2002-2011
VI-5 Central America Inbound MOUs with VoIP, 2002-2011
VI-6 Central America Outbound MOUs with VoIP, 2002-2011
VI-7 Latin America Inbound MOUs with VoIP, 2002-2011
VI-8 Latin America Outbound MOUs with VoIP, 2002-2011
VI-9 Europe Inbound MOUs with VoIP , 2002-2011
VI-10 Europe Outbound MOUs with VoIP, 2002-2011
VI-11 Asia Inbound MOUs with VoIP, 2002-2011
VI-12 Asia Outbound MOUs with VoIP, 2002-2011
VI-13 Africa Inbound MOUs with VoIP, 2002-2011
VI-14 Africa Outbound MOUs with VoIP, 2002-2011
VI-15 Oceania Inbound MOUs with VoIP, 2002-2011
VI-16 Oceania Outbound MOUs with VoIP, 2002-2011
VI-17 Green Communications Portfolio of Product Domains, Services and
Applications
Chapter VII
VII-1 US Business Distribution: All Business Sizes
VII-2 Business Establishments by Industry Sector and Business Size:
Small
Enterprises vs.
All Other Segments
VII-3 Business Lines: Distribution by Industry Sector
VII-4 Business Lines by Industry Sector and Business Size: Small Enterprises
vs.
Large
and Medium Enterprises
VII-5 Digital Services Hierarchy
VII-6 SONET/Optical Carrier Hierarchy
VII-7 Managed Services Segments
VII-8 Managed Service Solutions by Business Size
VII-9 Healthcare Market Segments
VII-10 Healthcare Segment Dimensions and Trends
VII-11 Total US Mobile Application Service Revenues, 2007-2012
VII-12 US Companies Ranked by Video Subscribers, 2009
VII-13 US MSO Commercial Service Revenues, 2010-2014
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