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The 2011 Telecommunications Industry Review: An Anthology of Market Facts and Forecasts

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Report Excerpt
Market Segmentation
Table of Contents
Pricing Information
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The 2011 Telecom Industry Review summarizes current conditions across the global telecommunications industry, providing analysis of over a dozen infrastructure and service segments. From fundamental background issues to detailed five-year forecasts accompanied by practical strategic advice, this study provides a sweeping examination of the telecom marketplace.

The Review provides up-to-date information in such key areas as high-speed access, optical networking, VoIP, gateways, cable telephony, residential and business communications trends, and new opportunities such as fixed mobile convergence, various IP-based applications delivered as services, and IPTV.  Whether you are an industry veteran or new to telecom, the 2011 Telecom Industry Review will serve as a frequently referenced yearbook, supplying hard data and sound analysis on pressing service and equipment issues. Concise, clear, and current, the review is a detailed strategic tool that amasses a year’s worth of telecom research— over a dozen segments— into one comprehensive resource.


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    Report Excerpt

    1.1      Telecommunications Industry Economic Conditions

     At the beginning of 2011, global financial markets seemed to have regained their composure, though in the US it is apparent that the greatest economic downturn since the Great Depression of the 1930s is still with us.  The sharp drop in credit markets worldwide was directly tied to problems in the US mortgage industry, which ground to a halt during 2008—and its negative impacts on domestic growth and consumer confidence is still very much in evidence as we enter 2011.  

    While much of global economy has recovered, the US economy measured by GDP is plainly still in the doldrums. A GDP of over four percent is needed to substantially impact the jobless rate in a positive direction. In 2008, the US GDP for the year was only .4 percent. However, the third and fourth quarters were particularly dismal at -2.7 and -5.4 respectively. By the first quarter of 2009, the GDP hit a 27-year low of -6.4 which was the same number as in the first quarter of 1982 which was also a time of double digit unemployment.  In the first quarter of 2010 GDP increased by 3.7 percent, in the second quarter of 2010 GDP increased by 1.7 percent and in the third quarter of 2010 GDP increased by 2 percent. This news buoyed the stock market, but has had virtually no effect on unemployment.

    Entering 2011 US joblessness and domestic consumer confidence continue to act as a drag on the economy. According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the employment picture is not sanguine. In August and September of 2008, unemployment hit 6.1 percent. In October of 2008, unemployment rose to 6.5 percent. By October of 2009, unemployment hit 10.2 percent, its highest rate since the end of 1982 when unemployment hit 10.8 percent. By the close of 2010, while not accepting it, the US has become accustomed to an unemployment rate hovering around 10 percent with no indication that this rate will improve over the next year. Although many indicators show that the “Great” Recession (not to be confused with the Great Depression in the 1930’s) is finally over, the unemployment rate is one indicator that demonstrates that the recovery will be painfully slow. With a stagnant US economy the business opportunities for telecommunications providers seem harder to find than ever before.

    Even amidst so much economic uncertainty, the fact remains that telecommunications ............

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    Market Segmentation

     

    Telecommunications Industry Markets
                  By Geography
                                    North America
                                    Europe/Middle East/Africa
                                    Latin America/Caribbean
                                    Asia/Pacific
                  Global Carrier Revenue by Region,
                  2008 and 2013 Distribution of Global Carrier Revenue by Region
                  Service Provider Revenue By Provider Type
                  Worldwide Telecom Revenue Forecast by Services Category
                  Broadband Service Revenue Distribution by Service Type
                  North American Broadband Wireline Revenue
                  Impact of New Wireless Data Service Usage on ARPU
                  EMEA Broadband Wireline Revenue
                  Asia Pacific Broadband Wireline Revenue
                  LAC Broadband Wireline Revenue
                  Wireless Subscribers by Global Region 2002-2011
                  Distribution of Wireless Networks by Technology Type
                  Wireless Network Deployment Status, 2005 and 2006
                  Revenue for 2G, 2.5G, and 3G Market Segments by Region
                  Regional Subscriber Growth 2002-2005
                  Total Wireline and Wireless BBand Narrowband Revenues
                  Broadband Services Revenue Distribution

    Next Generation Network Infrastructure
                  US Broadband Switches Compared with Increase in Throughput
                  Wireline SS7 Queries 2003-2008
                  Impacts of VoIP on International Telecommunications Services
                  Total US Public Ethernet Revenues, 2005-2012
                  Worldwide Gateway Revenue Forecast
                  Total Worldwide Services Delivery Platform Revenues, 2006-2011
                  Worldwide Services Delivery Platform Revenues by Provider Type
                  Wavelength Services Revenue Totals
                  Total Worldwide Optical Equipment Market 2007-2012
                  Worldwide Fiber Deployment: New Additions 2007-2012

    Access Network
                  US Wireline End User Switched Access Lines 1999-2006
                  Landline Telephone Penetration Percentage US, 1999-2006
                  US Wireline Telephone Calls 1999-2005
                  US Wireless-Only Households, 2002-2006
                  US Access Line Substitution, Residential and Business, 2002-2006
                  BB Penetration by Technology in Top 20 Economies
                  Broadband Penetration as a Percentage of Households by Region
                  Worldwide Broadband Lines by Region, 2006-2011
                  Cell Phone Penetration as a Percentage of All Phone Subscribers,
                  Wireline vs. Mobile Phone Growth 1995-2004 )
                  Number of Cons BB Lines with Wireless Home Net By Region
                  Cellular and Wireline Phone Penetration Per Capita by Global Region
                  Cellular Subscribers By Global Region 2006-2012 
                  Total Worldwide FMC Carrier & Equipment Vendor Revenue
                  Number of Consumer Brdband Lines w/Wireless Home Ntwrking

    OSSes, BSSes & Outsourcing
                 Outsourced Services Market Estimate for Wireline and Wireless

    Present & Future Services
                  IP-Based Application Services
                                 Worldwide Residential Video Telephony Service Revenues
                                 Worldwide File Sharing/File Downloading Services Revenues
                                 Worldwide Wireline File Sharing/File Downloading Srvcs Rev.
                                 Worldwide Wireless File Sharing/File Downloading Srvcs Rev.
                                 Worldwide Audio/Video Streaming Services Revenues
                                 Worldwide Location-Based Services Service Revenues
                                 Worldwide Presence-Based Services Revenue
                  International VoIP Traffic By Region
                                 North American Inbound MOUs with VoIP
                                 North American Outbound MOUs with VoIP
                                 Caribbean Inbound MOUs with VoIP
                                 Caribbean Outbound MOUs with VoIP
                                 Central America Inbound MOUs with VoIP
                                 Central America Outbound MOUs with VoIP
                                 Latin America Inbound MOUs with VoIP
                                 Latin America Outbound MOUs with VoIP
                                 Europe Inbound MOUs with VoIP )
                                 Europe Outbound MOUs with VoIP
                                 Asia Inbound MOUs with VoIP
                                 Asia Outbound MOUs with VoIP 
                                 Africa Inbound MOUs with VoIP
                                 Africa Outbound MOUs with VoIP 
                                 Oceania Inbound MOUs with VoIP
                                 Oceania Outbound MOUs with VoIP

    Enterprise Markets
                 Classification of US Businesses
                                 US Business Distribution: All Business Sizes
                                 Business Establishments by Industry Sector & Business Size
                                 Business Lines: Distribution by Industry Sector
                 Total Private Line Revenue
                 Managed Wide Area Network Endpoints by Type
                 Internet Traffic and IT Staffing
                 US Managed Services Revenues
                 Total US Telecom Wireline Market, 2005 and 2010
                 Top-Tier Expenditures for Telecom Wireline Services
                 Total US Telecom Wireless Services, 2005 and 2010
                 Top-Tier Expenditures for Telecom Wireless Services
                 Total US Healthcare Telecom Service Revenues
                 Total US Mobile Enterprise Application Service Revenues, 2007-2012
                 Worldwide Grid Spending
     


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    Table of Contents

     

    Chapter I
    EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
    1.1 Telecommunications Industry Economic Conditions
    1.2 Report Structure

    Chapter II
    BACKGROUND:
    Telecommunication Industry Markets
    2.1      Telecommunications Market Conditions
               2.1.1 Wireline Market Trends
               2.1.2 Broadband Market Trends
    2.2      Wireless Industry Markets
               2.2.1 Differences Between Wireless Mobile Technologies
               2.2.2 Wireless Market Trends
    2.3      Cable Industry Markets
               2.3.1 Cable Industry Evolution
               2.3.2 IP Cable Telephony
               2.3.3 US Cable Subscriber Growth

    Chapter III
    THE NEXT-GENERATION COMMUNICATIONS NETWORK:
    Improvements to the Infrastructure
    3.1     Overview of Network Topology
               3.1.1 End-Users
               3.1.2 Access Networks
               3.1.3 Metro Networks
               3.1.4 Core Networks
    3.2      Transmission Improvements
    3.3      Overview of Switching Technologies
               3.3.1 Circuit Switching vs. Packet Switching
    3.4      The Public Switched Telephone Network
               3.4.1 Evolution of the PSTN
               3.4.2 Changes to the PSTN?
               3.4.3 Central Offices
    3.5      Data Networks and VoIP
               3.5.1 Broadband Switches
               3.5.2 Data Core Networks
               3.5.3 Data Metro Networks
               3.5.4 Data Access Networks
               3.5.5 Signaling and Support Structures for Data Networks
               3.5.6 Voice over Internet Protocol
               3.5.7 VoIP as Transport
               3.5.8 VoIP Operational Advantage
               3.5.9 VoIP as Value-Added Stage
    3.6      Carrier Ethernet Networks
               3.6.1 E-line
               3.6.2 E-LAN
               3.6.3 Other Typologies: Dedicated vs. Switched
               3.6.4 Carrier Ethernet Market Forecast
    3.7      The Next Generation Network
               3.7.1 Gateways
               3.7.2 Softswitches
               3.7.3 Service Delivery Platforms
               3.7.4 IP Multimedia Subsystems
    3.8      Optical Networking
               3.8.1 Baseline Optical Transport Technologies
               3.8.2 Optical Transport Technology Overview
               3.8.3 Current Gaps in Baseline Transport Technologies
               3.8.4 The Hybrid Approach to Optical Transport Technologies
               3.8.5 Optical Equipment Market Revenue Estimates
               3.8.6 Wavelength Service Market Trends

    Chapter IV
    THE ACCESS NETWORK:
    Narrowband and Broadband
    4.1      Narrowband: The Decline of US Landlines
    4.2      Broadband Access Networks
               4.2.1 Broadband Access Forecasts
    4.3      Fixed Network Access Technology Options
               4.3.1 DSL
               4.3.2 Cable
               4.3.3 Bonded Copper
               4.3.4 Fiber to the X Networks
               4.3.5 Broadband over Power Line
    4.4       Wireless Broadband Access
                4.4.1 Wireless Fidelity
                4.4.2 Multichannel Multipoint Distribution Service
                4.4.3 Worldwide Interoperability for Microwave Access
    4.5       Satellite Broadband

    Chapter V
    SUPPORTING THE INFRASTRUCTURE:
    OSSes, BSSes Equipment, and Outsourcing
    5.1       Operations Support Systems Overview
    5.2       Operations Support Applications
                5.2.1 Business Operations Support
                5.2.2 Network Operations Support
                5.2.3 Network Management
    5.4       Outsourcing
                5.4.1 Vendor Activity Summary
                5.4.2 The Market for Outsourcing Services

    Chapter VI
    PRESENT AND FUTURE
    COMMUNICATIONS SERVICES MARKETS
    6.1       IP-Based Application Services
                6.1.1 Introduction & Definitions
                6.1.2 VoIP as a Non-Starter
                6.1.3 Key IP Service Trends
                6.1.4 Market Forecast
    6.2       Worldwide VoIP Adoption
                6.2.1 North America International VoIP Traffic
                6.2.2 Caribbean International VoIP Traffic
                6.2.3 Central America International VoIP Traffic
                6.2.4 Latin America International VoIP Traffic
                6.2.5 Europe International VoIP Traffic
                6.2.6 Asia International VoIP Traffic
                6.2.7 Africa International VoIP Traffic
                6.2.8 Oceania International VoIP Traffic
    6.3       Telecommunications Role in Improving the Environment
                6.3.1 Modeling the Benefits of Green
    6.4       Mobile Phones and Financial Applications
                6.4.1 Core Banking Solutions and Mobile Phones
                6.4.2 Financial Applications for Mobile Phones
                6.4.3 Revenue Potential of Financial Applications for Mobile Phones
    6.5       The Future of Telecommunications
                6.5.1 IP Changes Everything
                6.5.2 Convergence Cuts Both Ways
                6.5.3 The Road Ahead for Operators
                6.5.4 The Road Ahead for OEMs

    Chapter VII
    ENTERPRISE TELECOMMUNICATIONS MARKETS
    7.1      The Classification of Businesses by Size
               7.1.1 Distribution of Business by Size
               7.1.2 The Business Line Market Methodology and Analysis
               7.1.3 The Business Line Market in Small Enterprises
    7.2      Private Lines
               7.2.1 Evolution in the Private Line Services Market
               7.2.2 Circuit Types
               7.2.3 SONET, IP and Private Lines
               7.2.4 Private Line Circuit Layout
               7.2.5 Redundancy & Restoration
               7.2.6 Private Line Alternatives
               7.2.7 Private Line Market Analysis
    7.3      Managed Services & the Enterprise
               7.3.1 Why Managed Services?
               7.3.2 Industry Structure
               7.3.3 Managed Service Industry Forecast
    7.4      Vertical Industry Focus: Healthcare
               7.4 1 Healthcare Ready for Change
               7.4.2. Market Estimate of Healthcare Telecom Spending
    7.5      The Mobile Workforce and Enterprise Applications
               7.5.1 Mobile Enterprise Market Forecasts
    7.6      Enterprise Unified Communications
               7.6.1 Defining Unified Communications
               7.6.2 The Benefits of Unified Communications
               7.6.3 Unified Communications: Dedicated versus Hosted
               7.6.4 The Stakeholders
               7.6.5 Unified Communications Markets and Revenue
    7.7     US Cable Operators Push into Enterprise Services
              7.7.1 CableCos Appear Well Positioned to Compete in Enterprise Markets
              7.7.2 CableCos Deploying Commercial Services
              7.7.4 CableCos Enterprise Market Forecast

    Table of Figures

    Chapter II
    II-1        Broadband Services Revenue Distribution, 2011 and 2016
    II-2        EMEA Broadband Wireline Revenue, 2011-2016
    II-3        Asia Pacific Broadband Wireline Revenue, 2011-2016
    II-4        LAC Broadband Wireline Revenue, 2011-2016
    II-5        Impact of New Wireless Data Service Usage on Average Revenue per User
    II-6        Circuit Switched with Hybrid IP Network Architecture
    II-7        Cable IP Telephony
    II-8        Basic DOCSIS
    II-9        Basic PacketCable Architecture

    Chapter III
    III-1      Public Communication Network Architecture
    III-2      SONET Ring Configuration
    III-3      Hierarchy of Broadband Switch Functions
    III-4      Typical National Data Core Network
    III-5      E-Line Point-to-Point Service Type
    III-6      E-LAN Multipoint-to-Multipoint Service Type
    III-7      Total US Public Ethernet Revenues, 2010-2015
    III-8      Worldwide Gateway Revenue Forecast, 2008-2013
    III-9      Softswitch Architecture Diagram
    III-10    Circuit vs. Packet Switching of Internet Traffic
    III-11    SDP Service Provider Network Architecture
    III-12    Total Worldwide Services Delivery Platform Revenues, 2006-2011
    III-13    STS-1 Frame Structure
    III–14    STM-1 Frame Structure
    III-15     Four-Channel DWDM System
    III-16     Schematic of an MPLS Network
    III-17     Label Header Structure
    III-18     MPLS over WDM Core
    III-19     Worldwide Optical Equipment Sales, 2008-2013
    III-20     Worldwide Fiber Sales, 2008-2013
    III-21     Managed Wavelength Service Evolution Path

    Chapter IV
    IV-1      Landline Telephone Penetration Percentage US, 1999-2006
    IV-2      Historical Landline vs. Wireless Penetrations, 1990-2006
    IV-3      US VoIP Households, 2007-2012 (Millions)
    IV-4      HFC Architecture Providing Video and Voice Services
    IV-5      Typical Backhaul Configuration
    IV-6      Typical DSLAM Backhaul Application
    IV-7      High Speed Data over Copper Service Provider Revenue, 2007-2012
    IV-8      Typical FTTH Deployment
    IV-9      Verizon FiOS Architecture Overview (FTTP)
    IV-10    Verizon FiOS Premise Architecture (FTTP)
    IV-11    FTTB Deployment Architecture
    IV-12    FTTC Deployment Architecture
    IV-13    FTTN Architecture
    IV-14    AT&T U-Verse (FTTN) Architecture Overview
    IV-15    AT&T U-Verse Premise Architecture ( FTTN)
    IV-16    AON Architecture
    IV-17    PON Architecture
    IV-18    Typical BPL Architecture
    IV-19    Premise BPL Modem Architecture: Typical Configuration
    IV-20    LOS WiMAX Topology
    IV-21   NLOS WiMAX Topology
    IV-22   Sector Topology
    IV-23   Satellite (DBS) Broadband Data Network Architecture

    Chapter V
    V-1     Operations Support Systems Dataflow
    V-2     Business Operations Systems Dataflow

    Chapter VI
    VI-1     Worldwide IP Services Market by Service Type, 2008-2013
    VI-2     Worldwide Green Communications Technologies Revenues, 2008-2013
    VI-3     Global Total Revenue Opportunity for Mobile Financial Applications, 2009-2014
    VI-4     Telecom Networking Before and After IP
    VI-5     Worldwide Telecommunications Operators Capital Expenditures

    Chapter VII
    VII-1    Capacities of 64 Kbit/s, T1, and T3 Circuits
    VII-2    Typical Layout for a Full Circuit
    VII-3    ISDN Switched Backup
    VII-4    SONET Rings
    VII-5    Fiber-to-Fiber Redundancy
    VII-6    Cable-to-Cable Physical Redundancy (Diverse Cable Redundancy)
    VII-7    Total Private Line Revenue, 2010-2015
    VII-8    Managed Services Gross Margins
    VII-9    US Managed Services Revenues, 2010-2015
    VII-10  Total US Healthcare Telecom Service Revenues, 2009-2014
    VII-11  Employment Growth by Major Sector, 2005 and 2012
    VII-12  Percentage Growth by Occupational Title and Mobility, 2004-2014
    VII-13  Total US Mobile Application Service Revenues, 2007-2012
    VII-14  Breakdown of UC Market According to Implementation Methodologies
    VII-15  Total Global Market for All UC Segments
    VII-16 US Telecommunications Revenue by Market, 2009
    VII-17 US MSO Commercial Service Revenues, 2010-2014

    Table of Tables

    Chapter I
    I-1     Global Carrier Revenue by Region 2011-2016
    I-2     Worldwide Telecom Revenue Forecast by Services Category, 2011-2016

    Chapter II
    II-1     Global Carrier Revenue by Region, 2011-2016
    II-2     2011 and 2016 Distribution of Global Carrier Revenue by Region
    II-3     Worldwide Service Provider Revenue, 2011-2016
    II-4     Wireline Subscriber Growth, 2011-2016
    II-5     Worldwide Telecom Revenue Forecast by Services Category, 2011-2016
    II-6     Broadband Consumer Applications and Required Bandwidth
    II-7     North American Broadband Wireline Revenue by Market Segment
    II-8     Regional Wireless Subscribers, 2011-2016
    II-9     Regional Wireless Penetration by Population, 2011-2016
    II-10   Wireless Data Technologies Comparison
    II-11   Revenue for 2G, 2.5G, and 3G Market Segments by Region, 2010-2015
    II-12   DOCSIS Evolution: Service Comparison
    II-13   DOCSIS Evolution: Customer Equipment Supported
    II-14   DOCSIS Evolution: Upload/Download Speeds Supported
    II-15   Growth in Cable Subscribers by Service Type, 2011-2016

    Chapter III
    III-1     Definitions of Digital Private Line Services
    III-2   SONET Data Rates
    III-3   Distinctions between POTS and Data Networks
    III-4   Network Locations of Broadband Switches
    III-5   Downstream DSL Bit-rates vs. Reach
    III-6   Total Number of SS7 Queries for U.S. Access Line Calls, 2009–2014
    III-7   Percent of Broadband Consumers Adopting VoIP, 2008-2013
    III-8   US VoIP Subscribers, 2004-2008
    III-9   US VoIP Segment Size and SIP Invite Transaction Growth, 2009-2014
    III-10 Characteristics of Ethernet Service Varieties
    III-11 Gateway Definitions
    III-12 Softswitch Advantages/Disadvantages
    III-13 Economic Benefits of Softswitch Technology
    III-14 Strategies to Increase Network Service Margins
    III-15 Worldwide Services Delivery Platform Revenues by Provider Type
    III-16 Interrelationship between STM, STS, OC, and Gbit/s
    III-17 ITU’s Laser Grid
    III-18 Worldwide Fiber Sales, 2008-2013
    III-19 Wavelength Market Segments
    III-20 Wavelength Services Revenue Totals, 2009-2014

    Chapter IV
    IV-1   US Wireline End User Switched Access Lines 1999-2006
    IV-2   US Wireline Telephone Calls, 1999-2005
    IV-3   Broadband Communication Network Access Solutions
    IV-4   Broadband Penetration as a Percentage of Households, 2008 and 2013
    IV-5   Worldwide Broadband Lines, 2008-2013
    IV-6   The Versions and Features of xDSL
    IV-7   WiMAX NLOS Broadband Performance
    IV-8   Representative Satellite Service Package Speed

    Chapter V
    V-1    OSS Definitions Summary
    V-2    Characteristics of Broadband Network Management
    V-3    Distinct Characteristics of Packet Broadband Network Management
    V-4    Vendor Activity Summary
    V-5    Outsourced Services Market Estimate for Wireline and Wireless, 2008-2013

    Chapter VI
    VI-1   North American Inbound MOUs with VoIP, 2002-2011
    VI-2   North American Outbound MOUs with VoIP, 2002-2011
    VI-3   Caribbean Inbound MOUs with VoIP, 2002-2011
    VI-4   Caribbean Outbound MOUs with VoIP, 2002-2011
    VI-5   Central America Inbound MOUs with VoIP, 2002-2011
    VI-6   Central America Outbound MOUs with VoIP, 2002-2011
    VI-7   Latin America Inbound MOUs with VoIP, 2002-2011
    VI-8   Latin America Outbound MOUs with VoIP, 2002-2011
    VI-9   Europe Inbound MOUs with VoIP , 2002-2011
    VI-10 Europe Outbound MOUs with VoIP, 2002-2011
    VI-11 Asia Inbound MOUs with VoIP, 2002-2011
    VI-12 Asia Outbound MOUs with VoIP, 2002-2011
    VI-13 Africa Inbound MOUs with VoIP, 2002-2011
    VI-14 Africa Outbound MOUs with VoIP, 2002-2011
    VI-15 Oceania Inbound MOUs with VoIP, 2002-2011
    VI-16 Oceania Outbound MOUs with VoIP, 2002-2011
    VI-17 Green Communications Portfolio of Product Domains, Services and Applications

    Chapter VII
    VII-1   US Business Distribution: All Business Sizes
    VII-2   Business Establishments by Industry Sector and Business Size:
                Small Enterprises vs. All Other Segments
    VII-3   Business Lines: Distribution by Industry Sector
    VII-4   Business Lines by Industry Sector and Business Size: Small Enterprises vs.
                Large and Medium Enterprises
    VII-5   Digital Services Hierarchy
    VII-6   SONET/Optical Carrier Hierarchy
    VII-7   Managed Services Segments
    VII-8   Managed Service Solutions by Business Size
    VII-9   Healthcare Market Segments
    VII-10 Healthcare Segment Dimensions and Trends
    VII-11 Total US Mobile Application Service Revenues, 2007-2012
    VII-12 US Companies Ranked by Video Subscribers, 2009
    VII-13 US MSO Commercial Service Revenues, 2010-2014


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