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The 2012 Telecommunications Industry Review: An Anthology of Market Facts
and Forecasts
a market research report
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The 2012 Telecom Industry Review summarizes current
conditions across the global telecommunications industry, providing
analysis of over a dozen infrastructure and service segments. From
fundamental background issues to detailed five-year forecasts
accompanied by practical strategic advice, this study provides a
sweeping examination of the telecom marketplace.
The Review provides up-to-date information in such key areas as wireless
high-speed access, optical networking, VoIP, cable telephony,
residential and business communications trends, and new opportunities
such as various IP-based applications delivered as services as well as
device-independent IPTV.
Whether you are an industry veteran or new to telecom, the 2012 Telecom
Industry Review will serve as a frequently referenced yearbook,
supplying hard data and sound analysis on pressing service and equipment
issues. Concise, clear, and current, the review is a detailed strategic
tool that amasses a year’s worth of telecom research—over a dozen
segments—into one comprehensive resource.
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Report Excerpt
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At the beginning of 2012, global financial markets
remain unsteady, with European currency still under attack. Although there
are signs that the greatest economic downturn since the Great Depression of
the 1930s will continue to drive investment decisions in the near term, the
worst of the turmoil may soon be behind us. The sharp drop in credit
markets worldwide was directly tied to problems in the US mortgage industry,
which ground to a halt during 2008. Because US business and private
investors got too complacent about risk, the amount of mortgages that were
sold by banks to investment banks and then sold as US mortgage-related
securities to investors grew from approximately $67 billion in 1996 to $773
billion in 2006. This is one of the key reasons that set off the lending
crisis and created serious concern about the health of the global economy.
Another precipitating factor in the credit squeeze was the legalization of
credit default swaps in 2000 which allowed investors to “bet” that the
mortgage market would fail.
In October of 2008, it was necessary for the Federal
government to introduce a $700 billion bailout plan for the economy so that
things would not worsen, and other governments followed suit with their own
plans to spur lending. The use of deficit spending and other “pump priming”
measures probably had a salutary effect and averted a global Depression on
the order to the 1930s, but the world economic system at the beginning of
2012 continues to exhibit considerable signs of stress.
Even amidst so much economic
uncertainty, the fact remains that telecommunications is a key input factor
in economic growth. Telecommunications is a facilitator of socio-economic
advancement and is a critical utility for economic development, much like
water and energy. This fact is reflected in its growing share of world
output and of household spending. By Insight’s analysis, global
telecommunications spending as share of global GDP has risen.........
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Market Segmentation
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Telecommunications Industry Markets
By Geography
North America
Europe/Middle East/Africa
Latin America/Caribbean
Asia/Pacific
Global Carrier Revenue by Region,
2008 and 2013 Distribution of Global Carrier Revenue by Region
Service Provider Revenue By Provider Type
Worldwide Telecom Revenue Forecast by Services Category
Broadband Service Revenue Distribution by Service Type
North American Broadband Wireline Revenue
Impact of New Wireless Data Service Usage on ARPU
EMEA Broadband Wireline Revenue
Asia Pacific Broadband Wireline Revenue
LAC Broadband Wireline Revenue
Wireless Subscribers by Global Region 2002-2011
Distribution of Wireless Networks by Technology Type
Wireless Network Deployment Status, 2005 and 2006
Revenue for 2G, 2.5G, and 3G Market Segments by Region
Regional Subscriber Growth 2002-2005
Total Wireline and Wireless BBand Narrowband Revenues
Broadband Services Revenue Distribution
Next Generation Network Infrastructure
US Broadband Switches Compared with Increase in Throughput
Wireline SS7 Queries 2003-2008
Impacts of VoIP on International Telecommunications Services
Total US Public Ethernet Revenues, 2005-2012
Worldwide Gateway Revenue Forecast
Total Worldwide Services Delivery Platform Revenues, 2006-2011
Worldwide Services Delivery Platform Revenues by Provider Type
Wavelength Services Revenue Totals
Total Worldwide Optical Equipment Market 2007-2012
Worldwide Fiber Deployment: New Additions 2007-2012
Access Network
US Wireline End User Switched Access Lines 1999-2006
Landline Telephone Penetration Percentage US, 1999-2006
US Wireline Telephone Calls 1999-2005
US Wireless-Only Households, 2002-2006
US Access Line Substitution, Residential and Business, 2002-2006
BB Penetration by Technology in Top 20 Economies
Broadband Penetration as a Percentage of Households by Region
Worldwide Broadband Lines by Region, 2006-2011
Cell Phone Penetration as a Percentage of All Phone Subscribers,
Wireline vs. Mobile Phone
Growth 1995-2004 )
Number of Cons BB Lines with Wireless Home Net By Region
Cellular and Wireline Phone Penetration Per Capita by Global Region
Cellular Subscribers By Global Region 2006-2012
Total Worldwide FMC Carrier & Equipment Vendor Revenue
Number of Consumer Brdband Lines w/Wireless
Home Ntwrking
OSSes, BSSes & Outsourcing
Outsourced Services Market Estimate for Wireline and Wireless
Present & Future Services
IP-Based Application Services
Worldwide Residential Video Telephony Service Revenues
Worldwide File Sharing/File Downloading Services Revenues
Worldwide Wireline File Sharing/File Downloading Srvcs Rev.
Worldwide Wireless File Sharing/File Downloading Srvcs Rev.
Worldwide Audio/Video Streaming Services Revenues
Worldwide Location-Based Services Service Revenues
Worldwide Presence-Based Services Revenue
International VoIP Traffic By Region
North American Inbound MOUs with VoIP
North American Outbound MOUs with VoIP
Caribbean Inbound MOUs with VoIP
Caribbean Outbound MOUs with VoIP
Central America Inbound MOUs with VoIP
Central America Outbound MOUs with VoIP
Latin America Inbound MOUs with VoIP
Latin America Outbound MOUs with VoIP
Europe Inbound MOUs with VoIP )
Europe Outbound MOUs with VoIP
Asia Inbound MOUs with VoIP
Asia Outbound MOUs with VoIP
Africa Inbound MOUs with VoIP
Africa Outbound MOUs with VoIP
Oceania Inbound MOUs with VoIP
Oceania Outbound MOUs with VoIP
Enterprise Markets
Classification of US Businesses
US Business Distribution: All Business Sizes
Business Establishments by Industry Sector & Business Size
Business Lines: Distribution by Industry Sector
Total Private Line Revenue
Managed Wide Area Network Endpoints by Type
Internet Traffic and IT Staffing
US Managed Services Revenues
Total US Telecom Wireline Market, 2005 and 2010
Top-Tier Expenditures for Telecom Wireline Services
Total US Telecom Wireless Services, 2005 and 2010
Top-Tier Expenditures for Telecom Wireless Services
Total US Healthcare Telecom Service Revenues
Total US Mobile Enterprise Application Service Revenues, 2007-2012
Worldwide Grid Spending
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Table of Contents
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Chapter I
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1.1 Telecommunications Industry Economic Conditions
1.2 Report Structure
Chapter II
BACKGROUND: TELECOMMUNICATION INDUSTRY MARKETS
2.1 Telecommunications Market Conditions
2.1.1 Wireline Market Trends
2.1.2 Broadband Market Trends
2.2 Wireless Industry Markets
2.2.1 Differences Between Wireless Mobile Technologies
2.2.2 Wireless Market Trends
2.3 Cable Industry Markets
2.3.1 Cable Industry Evolution
2.3.2 IP Cable Telephony
2.3.3 US Cable Subscriber Growth
Chapter III
THE NEXT-GENERATION COMMUNICATIONS NETWORK:
IMPROVEMENTS TO THE INFRASTRUCTURE
3.1 Overview of Network Topology
3.1.1 End-Users
3.1.2 Access Networks
3.1.3 Metro Networks
3.1.4 Core Networks
3.2 Transmission Improvements
3.3 Overview of Switching Technologies
3.3.1 Circuit Switching vs. Packet Switching
3.4 The Public Switched Telephone Network
3.4.1 Evolution of the PSTN
3.4.2 Changes to the PSTN?
3.4.3 Central Offices
3.5 Data Networks and VoIP
3.5.1 Broadband Switches
3.5.2 Data Core Networks
3.5.3 Data Metro Networks
3.5.4 Data Access Networks
3.5.5 Signaling and Support Structures for Data Networks
3.5.6 Voice over Internet Protocol
3.5.7 VoIP as Transport
3.5.8 VoIP Operational Advantage
3.5.9 VoIP as Value-Added Stage
3.6 Carrier Ethernet Networks
3.6.1 E-line
3.6.2 E-LAN
3.6.3 Other Typologies: Dedicated vs. Switched
3.6.4 Carrier Ethernet Market Forecast
3.7 The Next Generation Network
3.7.1 Gateways
3.7.2 Softswitches
3.7.3 Service Delivery Platforms
3.7.4 IP Multimedia Subsystems
3.8 Optical Networking
3.8.1 Baseline Optical Transport Technologies
3.8.2 Optical Transport Technology Overview
3.8.3 Current Gaps in Baseline Transport Technologies
3.8.4 The Hybrid Approach to Optical Transport Technologies
3.8.5 Optical Equipment Market Revenue Estimates
3.8.6 Wavelength Service Market Trends
3.9 Capital Investments in the Infrastructure
3.9.1 WiMAX and LTE
3.9.2 Broadband and NGNs
3.9.3 Mobile Handsets and Smartphones
3.9.4 Forecast of Telecommunications Operators’ Capital Spending
3.9.3 Mobile Handsets and Smartphones
3.9.4 Forecast of Telecommunications Operators’ Capital Spending
Chapter IV
THE ACCESS NETWORK: NARROWBAND AND BROADBAND
4.1 Narrowband: The Decline of US Landlines
4.2 Broadband Access Networks
4.2.1 Broadband Access Forecasts
4.3 Access Network Technology Options
4.3.1 DSL
4.3.2 Cable
4.3.3 Bonded Copper
4.3.4 Fiber
4.3.5 Wireless
4.3.6 Fixed Mobile Convergence
4.3.7 WiFi
4.3.8 WiMAX
Chapter V
SUPPORTING THE INFRASTRUCTURE: OSSES, BSSES, AND OUTSOURCING
5.1 Operations Support Systems Overview
5.2 Operations Support Applications
5.2.1 Business Operations Support
5.2.2 Network Operations Support
5.2.3 Network Management
5.3 OSS Market Revenue Estimates
5.4 Outsourcing
5.4.1 Vendor Activity Summary
5.4.2 The Market for Outsourcing Services
5.5 Spending in Global Telecom Equipment Markets
5.6 The Impacts of Open Source Software on OSSes
5.6.1 The Question of Intellectual Property
5.6.2 Open Source Software Benefits
5.6.3 Open Source Software Project Challenges
5.6.4 Open Source Support: The Commercial License
5.6.5 Open Source Markets and Revenue Estimates
Chapter VI
PRESENT AND FUTURE COMMUNICATIONS SERVICES MARKETS
6.1 IP-Based Application Services
6.1.1 Introduction & Definitions
6.1.2 VoIP as a Non-Starter
6.1.3 Key IP Service Trends
6.1.4 I P Services Market Forecast
6.2 The Future of IP Services: Web 2.0
6.2.1 Web 2.0 and Mashups
6.2.2 Web 2.0 & the Carriers
6.2.3 Web 2.0 Market Forecast
6.3 The Future of IP Services: Mashups
6.3.1 What We Found
6.3.2 What Role for Telcos in Mashups?
6.3.3 Mashup Market Forecast 256
6.4 Telecommunications Role in Improving the Environment
6.4.1 Modeling the Benefits of Green
6.5 Mobile Phones and Financial Applications
6.5.1 Core Banking Solutions and Mobile Phones
6.5.2 Financial Applications for Mobile Phones
6.5.3 Revenue Potential of Financial Applications for Mobile Phones
6.6 The Future of Telecommunications
6.6.1 IP Changes Everything
6.6.2 Convergence Cuts Both Ways
6.6.3 The Road Ahead for Operators
6.6.4 The Road Ahead for OEMs
Chapter VII
ENTERPRISE TELECOMMUNICATIONS MARKETS
7.1 The Classification of Businesses by Size
7.1.1 Distribution of Business by Size
7.1.2 The Business Line Market Methodology and Analysis
7.1.3 The Business Line Market in Small Enterprises
7.2 Private Lines
7.2.1 Evolution in the Private Line Services Market
7.2.2 Circuit Types
7.2.3 SONET, IP and Private Lines
7.2.4 Private Line Circuit Layout
7.2.5 Redundancy & Restoration
7.2.6 Private Line Alternatives
7.2.7 Private Line Services Market Forecast
7.3 Managed Services & the Enterprise
7.3.1 Why Managed Services?
7.3.2 Industry Structure
7.3.3 Managed Service Industry Forecast
7.4 Vertical Industry Spending on Telecommunications Services
7.4.1 Telecommunications and Vertical Marketing
7.4.2 Healthcare as a Fast Growing Vertical Industry
7.5 The Mobile Workforce and Enterprise Applications
7.5.1 The Key Enterprise Mobility Applications
7.5.2 Mobile Enterprise Market Forecasts
7.6 Enterprise Unified Communications
7.6.1 Defining Unified Communications
7.6.2 The Benefits of Unified Communications
7.6.3 Unified Communications: Dedicated versus Hosted
7.6.4 The Stakeholders
7.6.5 Unified Communications Markets and Revenue
7.7 The CATV MSOs’ Push into the Enterprise
7.7.1 CableCos Well Positioned to Compete in Enterprise Markets
7.7.2 Deploying Commercial Services
7.7.3 Market Forecast
7.8 Hosted Voice Services in the Small Enterprise
7.8.1 Market Forecast for Hosted PBX/VoIP Services
Table of Figures
Chapter I
I-1 Global Carrier Revenue by Region, 2012-2017
Chapter II
II-1 Global Carrier Revenue by Region, 2012-2017
II-2 North American Broadband Wireline Revenue by Market Segment
II-3 EMEA Broadband Wireline Revenue, 2012-2017
II-4 Asia Pacific Broadband Wireline Revenue, 2012-2017
II-5 LAC Broadband Wireline Revenue, 2012-2017
II-6 Impact of New Wireless Data Service Usage on Ave. Rev. per User
II-7 Circuit Switched with Hybrid IP Network Architecture
II-8 Cable IP Telephony
II-9 Basic DOCSIS
II-10 Basic PacketCable Architecture
Chapter III
III-1 Public Communication Network Architecture
III-2 SONET Ring Configuration
III-3 Hierarchy of Broadband Switch Functions
III-4 Typical National Data Core Network
III-5 E-Line Point-to-Point Service Type
III-6 E-LAN Multipoint-to-Multipoint Service Type
III-7 Worldwide Gateway Revenue Forecast, 2008-2013
III-8 Softswitch Architecture Diagram
III-9 Circuit vs. Packet Switching of Internet Traffic
III-10 SDP Service Provider Network Architecture
III-11 STS-1 Frame Structure
III-12 STM-1 Frame Structure
III-13 Four-Channel DWDM System
III-14 Schematic of an MPLS Network
III-15 Label Header Structure
III-16 MPLS over WDM Core
III-17 Worldwide Optical Equipment Sales
III-18 Worldwide Fiber Sales, 2008-2013
III-19 Managed Wavelength Service Evolution Path
Chapter IV
IV-1 Landline Telephone Penetration Percentage US
IV-2 Historical Landline vs. Wireless Penetrations
IV-3 Total US Wireless Subscribership Growth, 1997-2010
IV-4 US VoIP Households, 2007-2012
IV-5 HFC Architecture Providing Video and Voice Services
IV-6 Typical Backhaul Configuration
IV-7 Typical DSLAM Backhaul Application
IV-8 High Speed Data over Copper Service Provider Revenue
IV-9 Revenue Distribution Wirelines vs. Wireless
IV-10 Total US Wireless Subscribership Growth, 1997-2010
IV-11 US Wireless Average Minutes Per Local Call
IV-12 Revenue Split between Non-Voice and Voice Wireless Revenue
IV-12 Phone Usage Habits, Women versus Men, January 2011
IV-13 Monthly Voice and Text Usage by Age, January 2011
IV-14 Cell Phone Penetration as a % of All Phone Subscribers, by Region
IV-16 Wireline vs. Mobile Phone Growth 1988-2006
IV-17 Common Fixed Mobile Convergence Scenarios
IV-18 Total Worldwide FMC Carrier & Equipment Vendor Revenue 196
Chapter V
V-1 Operations Support Systems Dataflow
V-2 Business Operations Systems Dataflow
V-3 Total Worldwide OSS Sales Revenue
V-4 Worldwide Telecom Open Source Market Revenue
Chapter VI
VI-1 Worldwide IP Services Market by Service Type
VI-2 Web 2.0 Business Models
VI-3 Global Opportunities for Web 2.0 Applied to Telecom
VI-4 Logical Schematic of a Commercial Mashup
VI-5 Global Mashup Revenue Opportunity for Telcos
VI-6 Worldwide Green Communications Technologies Revenues
VI-7 Global Total Revenue Opportunity for Mobile Financial Applications
VI-8 Telecom Networking Before and After IP
VI-9 Operator CAPEX in Select Markets, 2008-2015
Chapter VII
VII-1 Capacities of 64 Kbit/s, T1, and T3 Circuits
VII-2 Typical Layout for a Full Circuit
VII-3 ISDN Switched Backup
VII-4 SONET Rings
VII-5 Fiber-to-Fiber Redundancy
VII-6 Cable-to-Cable Physical Redundancy (Diverse Cable Redundancy)
VII-7 Total Private Line Revenue, 2011-2016
VII-8 Managed Services Gross Margins
VII-9 Global Managed Services Market by Region, 2011-2016
VII-10 Drivers of Telecom Expenditures in Vertical Markets
VII-11 Total US Telecom Wireline Market, 2010 and 2015
VII-12 Top-Tier Business Expenditures for Telecom Wireline Services, 2010
and 2015
VII-13 Total US Telecom Wireless Services, 2010 and 2015
VII-14 Top-Tier Business Expenditures for Telecom Wireless Services
VII-15 Total US Healthcare Telecom Service Revenues, 2009-2014
VII-16 Global Market for Enterprise Mobility Solutions, 2011-2016
VII-17 Breakdown of UC Market According to Implementation Methodologies
VII-18 Total Global Market for All UC Segments
VII-19 US MSO Commercial Service Revenues by Business Size
VII-20 Forecasted Growth of Hosted PBX/VoIP Rev.in the Small Bus.Seg.
Table of Tables
Chapter I
I-1 Worldwide Telecom Revenue Forecast by Services Cat.
Chapter II
II-1 Global Carrier Revenue by Region, 2012-2017
II-2 2012 and 2017 Distribution of Global Carrier Revenue by Region
II-3 Worldwide Service Provider Revenue by Service Type
II-4 Global Wireless Revenue by Region, 2012-2017
II-5 Global Wireline Revenue by Region, 2012-2017
II-6 Regional Access Lines, 2012-2017
II-7 Worldwide Telecom Revenue Forecast by Services Cat.
II-8 Broadband Consumer Applications and Required Bandwidth
II-9 Regional Wireless Subscribers, 2011-2016
II-10 Regional Wireless Penetration by Population
II-11 Wireless Data Technologies Comparison
II-12 Revenue for 2G, 2.5G, and 3G Market Segments by Region
II-13 DOCSIS Evolution: Service Comparison
II-14 DOCSIS Evolution: Customer Equipment Supported
II-15 DOCSIS Evolution: Upload/Download Speeds Supported
Chapter III
III-1 Definitions of Digital Private Line Services
III-2 SONET Data Rates
III-3 Distinctions between POTS and Data Networks
III-4 Network Locations of Broadband Switches
III-5 Downstream DSL Bit-rates vs. Reach
III-6 Total Number of SS7 Queries for U.S. Access Line Calls
III-7 Percent of Broadband Consumers Adopting VoIP, 2008-2013
III-8 US VoIP Subscribers, 2004-2008
III-9 US VoIP Segment Size and SIP Invite Transaction Growth, 2009-2014 74
III-10 Characteristics of Ethernet Service Varieties
III-11 Total US Public Ethernet Revenues, 2009-2016
III-12 Gateway Definitions
III-13 Softswitch Advantages/Disadvantages
III-14 Economic Benefits of Softswitch Technology
III-15 Strategies to Increase Network Service Margins
III-16 Interrelationship between STM, STS, OC, and Gbit/s
III-17 ITU’s Laser Grid
III-18 Worldwide Fiber Sales, 2008-2013
III-19 Wavelength Market Segments
III-20 Wavelength Services Revenue Totals, 2008-2013
III-21 Operator CAPEX in Select Markets, 2008-2015
Chapter IV
IV-1 US Wireline End User Switched Access Lines
IV-2 US Wireline Telephone Calls, 1999-2005
IV-3 Broadband Communication Network Access Solutions
IV-4 Worldwide Broadband Lines, 2011-2017
IV-5 The Versions and Features of xDSL
IV-6 Worldwide Wireline vs. Wireless Revenue Growth
IV-7 Wireline Subscribers, 2012-2017
IV-8 Regional Wireless Subscribers, 20128-2017
IV-9 Consumer VoWLAN/Cellular Service Scenario:
IV-10 Number of Consumer Broadband Lines with Wireless Home Networking,
Chapter V
V-1 OSS Definitions Summary
V-2 Characteristics of Broadband Network Management
V-3 Distinct Characteristics of Packet Broadband Network Management
V-4 Total Worldwide OSS Sales Revenue by Region, 2011-2016
V-5 Vendor Activity Summary
V-6 Outsourced Services Market Estimate for Wireline and Wireless
V-7 Global Telecommunications Equipment Market by Type
V-8 Open Source Component Categories
Chapter VI
VI-1 Green Comm. Portfolio of Product Domains, Services and Apps
Chapter VII
VII-1 US Business Distribution: All Business Sizes
VII-2 Business Establishments by Industry Sector and Business Size
VII-3 Business Lines: Distribution by Industry Sector
VII-4 Business Lines by Industry Sector and Business Size
VII-5 Digital Services Hierarchy
VII-6 SONET/Optical Carrier Hierarchy
VII-7 Managed Services Segments
VII-8 Managed Service Solutions by Business Size
VII-9 Healthcare Market Segments
VII-10 Healthcare Segment Dimensions and Trends
VII-11 US Companies Ranked by Video Subscribers
VII-12 US MSO Commercial Service Revenues by Business Size
VII-13 Business Lines by Industry Sector and Business Size
VII-14 ILECs & MSOs Operating Territories Covered
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Telecom
Market
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