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The telecommunications industry continues to be
impacted by economic factors, most notably, the weak global economy
continuing through 2012 and 2013, along with the financial uncertainty in
Europe. Over the long term, employment and telecommunications spending will
show a modest recovery, and businesses will look to service providers to
manage the complexity of expanding branch offices, foreign manufacturing
sites, mobile employees, and new access technologies. In developed
countries, when job growth does return, we expect that most of the new jobs
will be in professional and service occupations, which are major drivers of
telecommunications spending.
In the US, unemployment and low consumer confidence
continued to drag on the economy. In Europe, the financial stability of the
EU remains in doubt and unemployment remains high. The unemployment rate in
the US will likely remain above seven percent through 2014, well above the
average rate over the past 30 years. With a stagnant US and global economy
and businesses not hiring, IT departments must find a way to keep pace with
demands for more network applications and greater bandwidth.
Consumer demand for the latest wireless devices and
greater access bandwidth remains a key driver of telecommunications services
growth. In addition, a large percentage of business activity now depends on
the Internet for everything from electronic commerce to intranet
applications to customer service. Increasing use of video and wireless
services is .......................
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Chapter I
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1.1 Telecommunications Industry Economic
Conditions
1.2 Report Structure
Chapter II
BACKGROUND: TELECOMMUNICATION INDUSTRY MARKETS
2.1 Global Markets
2.1.1
Regional Economies
2.1.2 Global
Telecommunications Spending
2.1.3 North
American Telecommunications Spending
2.1.4
European, Middle East, and Africa Telecommunications Spending
2.1.5 Asia-Pacific
Telecommunications Spending
2.1.6 Latin
America-Caribbean Telecommunications Spending
2.2 Wireline Market Trends
2.2.1
Wireline Revenues
2.2.2
Wireline Demand
2.3 Wireless Market Trends
2.3.1
Wireless Revenues
2.3.2
Wireless Demand
2.3.3
Wireless Technology
Chapter III
THE NEXT-GENERATION COMMUNICATIONS NETWORK:
IMPROVEMENTS TO THE INFRASTRUCTURE
3.1 Overview of Network Topology
3.1.1 End-Users
3.1.2 Access Networks
3.1.3 Metro Networks
3.1.4 Core Networks
3.2 Transmission Improvements
3.3 Circuit Switching vs. Packet Switching Overview
3.4 The Public Switched Telephone Network
3.4.1 Evolution of the PSTN
3.4.2 Central Offices
3.5 Data Networks and VoIP
3.5.1 Broadband Switches
3.5.2 Data Core Networks
3.5.3 Data Metro Networks
3.5.4 Data Access Networks
3.5.5 Signaling and Support Structures for Data Networks
3.5.6 Voice over Internet Protocol
3.5.7 VoIP as Transport
3.5.8 VoIP Operational Advantage
3.5.9 VoIP as Value-Added Stage
3.6 Carrier Ethernet Networks
3.6.1 E-line
3.6.2 E-LAN
3.6.3 Other Typologies: Dedicated vs. Switched
3.6.4 Carrier Ethernet Market Forecast
3.7 The Next Generation Network
3.7.1 Gateways
3.7.2 Softswitches
3.7.3 Service Delivery Platforms
3.7.4 IP Multimedia Subsystems
3.8 Optical Networking
3.8.1 Baseline Optical Transport Technologies
3.8.2 Optical Transport Technology Overview
3.8.3 Current Gaps in Baseline Transport Technologies
3.8.4 The Hybrid Approach to Optical Transport Technologies
3.9 Capital Expenditures Forecast
Chapter IV
THE ACCESS NETWORK: NARROWBAND AND BROADBAND
4.1 Narrowband: The Decline of US Landlines
4.2 Broadband Access Networks
4.2.1 Broadband Access Forecasts
4.3 Access Network Technology Options
4.3.1 DSL
4.3.2 Cable
4.3.3 Bonded Copper
4.3.4 Fiber
4.3.5 Wireless
4.3.6 Fixed Mobile Convergence
4.3.7 WiFi
4.3.8 WiMAX
Chapter V
SUPPORTING THE INFRASTRUCTURE: OSSES, BSSES, AND OUTSOURCING
5.1 Operations Support Systems Overview
5.2 Operations Support Applications
5.3 Business Operations Support
5.3.1 Billing
5.3.2 Customer Care
5.3.3 Business Management
5.4 Network Operations Support
5.4.1 Engineering and Planning
5.4.2 Provisioning
5.4.3 Trouble Repair
5.4.4 Network Management
5.4.5 Workforce Management
5.5 OSS Market Revenue Estimates
5.5.1 Impacts of Equipment Markets on OSSes
5.6 The Impacts of Open Source Software on OSSes
5.6.1 The Question of Intellectual Property
5.6.2 Open Source Software Benefits
5.6.3 Open Source Software Project Challenges
5.6.4 Open Source Support: The Commercial License
5.6.5 Open Source Markets and Revenue Estimates
Chapter VI
PRESENT AND FUTURE COMMUNICATIONS SERVICES MARKETS
6.1 IP-Based Application Services
6.1.1 Introduction & Definitions
6.1.2 VoIP as a Non-Starter
6.1.3 Key IP Service Trends
6.2 The Future of IP Services: Web 2.0
6.2.1 Web 2.0 and Mashups
6.2.2 Web 2.0 & the Carriers
6.2.3 Web 2.0 Market Forecast
6.3 The Future of IP Services: Mashups
6.3.1 What We Found
6.3.2 What Role for Telcos in Mashups?
6.3.3 Mashup Market Forecast
6.4 Mobile Phones’ Impacts on the Financial Sector
6.4.1 Core Banking
6.4.2 User Financial Applications for Mobile Phones
6.4.3 Financial Services Segment Forecast
6.5 Telecommunications Role in Improving the Environment
6.5.1 Modeling the Benefits of Green
6.6 The Future of Telecommunications
6.6.1 IP Changes Everything
6.6.2 Convergence Cuts Both Ways
6.6.3 The Road Ahead for Operators
6.6.4 The Road Ahead for OEMs
Chapter VII
ENTERPRISE TELECOMMUNICATIONS MARKETS
7.1 The Classification of Businesses by Size
7.1.1 Distribution of Business by Size
7.1.2 The Business Line Market Methodology and Analysis
7.1.3 The Business Line Market in Small Enterprises
7.2 Private Lines
7.2.1 Evolution in the Private Line Services Market
7.2.2 Circuit Types
7.2.3 SONET, IP and Private Lines
7.2.4 Private Line Circuit Layout
7.2.5 Redundancy & Restoration
7.2.6 Private Line Alternatives
7.2.7 Private Line Services Market Forecast
7.3 Managed Services & the Enterprise
7.3.1 Why Managed Services?
7.3.2 Industry Structure
7.3.3 Managed Service Industry Forecast
7.4 Vertical Industry Spending on Telecommunications Services
7.4.1 Telecommunications and Vertical Marketing
7.4.2 Healthcare as a Fast Growing Vertical Industry
7.5 The Mobile Workforce and Enterprise Applications
7.5.1 The Key Enterprise Mobility Applications
7.5.2 Mobile Enterprise Market Forecasts
7.6 Enterprise Unified Communications
7.6.1 Defining Unified Communications
7.6.2 The Benefits of Unified Communications
7.6.3 Unified Communications: Dedicated versus Hosted
7.6.4 The Stakeholders
7.6.5 Unified Communications Markets and Revenue
7.7 The CATV MSOs’ Push into the Enterprise
7.7.1 CableCos Competion in Enterprise Markets
7.7.3 Market Forecast
7.8 Hosted Voice Services in the Small Enterprise
Table of Figures
Chapter I
I-1 Global Wireline and Wireless Revenues, 2013-2018
I-2 US Wireline and Wireless Revenues, 2013-2018
Chapter III
III-1 Public Communication Network Architecture
III-2 SONET Ring Configuration
III-3 Hierarchy of Broadband Switch Functions
III-4 Typical National Data Core Network
III-5 E-Line Point-to-Point Service Type
III-6 E-LAN Multipoint-to-Multipoint Service Type
III-7 Softswitch Architecture Diagram
III-8 Circuit vs. Packet Switching of Internet Traffic
III-9 SDP Service Provider Network Architecture
III-10 STS-1 Frame Structure
III-11 STM-1 Frame Structure
III-12 Four-Channel DWDM System
III-13 Schematic of an MPLS Network
III-14 Label Header Structure
III-15 MPLS over WDM Core
Chapter IV
IV-1 US Voice Services Penetration of Households
IV-2 Worldwide Broadband Subscribers, 2013-2018
IV-3 HFC Architecture Providing Video and Voice Services
IV-4 Typical Backhaul Configuration
IV-5 Typical DSLAM Backhaul Application
IV-6 Global Wireless Subscribers, 2013-2018
IV-7 Regional Wireless Penetration of Population, 2013-2018
IV-8 Total US Wireless Subscribership Growth, 1997-2010
IV-9 US Wireless Average Minutes Per Local Call, 2008-2010
IV-10 Revenue Split between Non-Voice and Voice Wireless Revenue
IV-11 Phone Usage Habits, Women versus Men, January 2011
IV-12 Monthly Voice and Text Usage by Age, January 2011
IV-13 Cell Phone Penetration as a Percentage of All Phone Subscribers
IV-14 Common Fixed Mobile Convergence Scenarios
Chapter V
V-1 Operations Support Systems Dataflow
V-2 Business Operations Systems Dataflow
V-3 Telecommunications Management Network Functional Architecture
V-4 Total Worldwide OSS Sales Revenue, 2011-2016
V-5 Operator Capex in Selected Geographies, 2009-2017
V-6 Worldwide Telecom Open Source Market Revenue, 2011-2016
Chapter VI
VI-1 Web 2.0 Business Models 202
VI-2 Global Opportunities for Web 2.0 Applied to Telecommunications
VI-3 Logical Schematic of a Commercial Mashup 209
VI-4 Global Mashup Revenue Opportunity for Telcos, 2010-2015
VI-5 Taxonomy of Revenue Opportunities in the Financial Domains
VI-6 Global Financial Services & Equipment Revenue, 2012-2017
VI-7 Telecom Networking Before and After IP
VI-8 Operator Capex in Selected Geographies, 2009-2017
Chapter VII
VII-1 Capacities of 64 Kbit/s, T1, and T3 Circuits
VII-2 Typical Layout for a Full Circuit
VII-3 ISDN Switched Backup
VII-4 SONET Rings
VII-5 Fiber-to-Fiber Redundancy
VII-6 Cable-to-Cable Physical Redundancy
VII-7 Total Private Line Revenue, 2011-2016
VII-8 Managed Services Gross Margins 258
VII-9 Drivers of Telecom Expenditures in Vertical Markets
VII-10 Top-Tier Business Expenditures for Telecom Wireline Services
VII-11 Total US Telecom Wireless Services, 2011 and 2016
VII-12 Top-Tier Business Expenditures for Telecom Wireless Services
VII-13 Total US Healthcare Telecom Service Revenues, 2012-2017
VII-14 Global Market for Enterprise Mobility Solutions, 2011-2016
VII-15 Breakdown of UC Market According to Implementation Methodologies
VII-16 Total Global Market for All UC Segments: Solutions, Services and
Carrier Rev.
VII-17 US Telecommunications Revenue by Market, 2012
VII-18 US MSO Commercial Service Revenues, 2012-2017
VII-19 Revenue Projection for Hosted PBX/VoIP Service in the Small Business
Segment
Table of Tables
Chapter II
I-1 Global Carrier Revenue by Region, 2013-2018
Chapter II
II-1 Global Carrier Revenue by Region, 2013-2018
II-2 US Carrier Revenue, 2013-2018 ($Billions) 13
II-3 Global Wireline and Wireless Revenues, 2013-2018
II-4 NA Wireline and Wireless Revenues, 2013-2018
II-5 US Wireline and Wireless Revenues, 2013-2018
II-6 EMEA Wireline and Wireless Revenues, 2013-2018
II-7 AP Wireline and Wireless Revenues, 2013-2018
II-8 LA Wireline and Wireless Revenues, 2013-2018
II-9 Global Wireline Revenue by Region, 2013-2018
II-10 Access Revenue by Region, 2013-2018
II-11 US Access Revenue, 2013-2018
II-12 Broadband Revenue by Region, 2013-2018
II-13 US Broadband Revenue, 2013-2018
II-14 Access Lines by Region, 2013-2018
II-15 US Access Lines, 2013-2018
II-16 Broadband Subs by Region, 2013-2018
II-17 US Broadband Subs, 2013-2018
II-18 Global Wireless Revenue by Region, 2013-2018
II-19 Wireless Subs by Region, 2013-2018
II-20 NA Wireless Subscriber Penetration, 2013-2018
II-21 US Wireless Subscriber Penetration, 2013-2018
II-22 EMEA Wireless Subscriber Penetration, 2013-2018
II-23 AP Wireless Subscriber Penetration, 2013-2018
II-24 LA Wireless Subscriber Penetration, 2013-2018
II-25 Wireless Data Technologies Comparison
Chapter III
III-1 Definitions of Digital Private Line Services
III-2 SONET Data Rates
III-3 Network Locations of Broadband Switches
III-4 Downstream DSL Bit-rates vs. Reach
III-5 US VoIP Subscribers and Penetration, 2013-2018
III-6 Characteristics of Ethernet Service Varieties
III-7 Total US Public Ethernet Revenues, 2010-2017
III-8 Gateway Definitions
III-9 Softswitch Advantages/Disadvantages
III-10 Economic Benefits of Softswitch Technology
III-11 Strategies to Increase Network Service Margins
III-12 Interrelationship between STM, STS, OC, and Gbit/s
III-13 ITU’s Laser Grid 101
III-14 Operator Capex in Selected Geographies 2013-2017
Chapter IV
IV-1 US Wireline Switched Access Lines, 2013-2018
IV-2 US Wireless Subscribers, 2013-2018
IV-3 Broadband Communication Network Access Solutions
IV-4 The Versions and Features of xDSL
IV-5 Consumer VoWLAN/Cellular Service Scenario: Advantages and Disadvantages
Chapter V
V-1 Operations Support System Definitions Summary
V-2 Related OSS Definitions
V-3 Worldwide OSS Sales by Region, 2011-2016
V-4 Operator Capex in Selected Geographies, 2009-2017
V-5 Open Source Component Categories
Chapter VI
VI-1 Green Communications Portfolio of Product Domains, Services and
Applications
Chapter VII
VII-1 US Business Distribution: All Business Sizes
VII-2 Bus. Est.by Industry Sector and Business Size: Small Ent. vs. All
Other Seg.
VII-3 Business Lines: Distribution by Industry Sector
VII-4 Bus. Lines by Ind. Sector and Bus. Size: Small Ent. vs. Large & Med.
Ent.
VII-5 Digital Services Hierarchy
VII-6 SONET/Optical Carrier Hierarchy
VII-7 Managed Services Segments
VII-8 Managed Service Solutions by Business Size
VII-9 Healthcare Market Segments
VII-10 Healthcare Segment Dimensions and Trends
VII-11 Bus. Lines by Ind. Sector and Bus. Size: Small Ent. vs. Large & Med.
Ent.
VII-12 ILECs & MSOs Operating Territories Covered
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