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Internet Video & The Next-Gen Set Top Box: A Revolution in Access
Devices, 2008-2013
a market research report
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The success of any triple-play service offered by a teleco or a cable television operator assumes that the integrated solution offers conveniences and economies for the customers. Our thesis is that final success in the last mile may well be determined by the nature of the interface that each carrier can provide to their end customer. Telcos and CATV providers are pouring billions of dollars into their network upgrades, with the lion’s share of new investments going into the network’s edge. Witness the Verizon and SBC investments pushing fiber into the last mile. For cable operators, investments have revolved around new set top boxes, cable modems, and residential gateways.
This report examines the various options for a user interface between the network edge and the end user. That interface could be as simple as a cell phone or as complex as a portable interactive gaming machine; it could be tethered to a broadband connection or use wireless technology. Either way, efforts over the past year have demonstrated that the entire entertainment delivery value chain is about to drastically change. To understand how new interface options will impact your network operations, read this report.
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Report Excerpt
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The video entertainment industry is on the cusp of
change, and everybody knows it. The signs are abundantly evident today, and
more changes will surely follow in the next 36 months. Video clips
delivered by Internet are portentous, and their volumes increase weekly.
And while business leaders and industry gurus recognize the Internet is
about to change everything, no one can say for sure what the outcome will
be:
·
Will television disappear, or will the TV set become an
integrating device?
·
Will some device like a PC with processing and memory absorb
television?
·
Or will the new media be experienced through a completely new
type of device?
·
Will telecom companies become major players?
This report explores all of these topics.
In this report we define a specific sub-system of the
digital entertainment ecosystem and call it Internet video. Very
simply, this term means video content that is distributed over the Internet
and displayed on a television screen. Today it is common to watch short
video clips delivered over the Internet on a PC or a mobile phone. The real
issue, as we see it, is how well this experience morphs into a television
experience that consumers can embrace. Our hypothesis is that consumers
will tune in when the process becomes simple, the content compelling, and
the price affordable.
The future of entertainment will be driven by three key
developments that will continue to evolve over the next 36 to 48 months:
·
Emergence of web portals that offer a broad variety of
high-definition (HD) video content available via pay-per-view (PPV),
subscription, or ad support;
·
hard data that convinces advertisers that viewing Internet
video is as good as viewing traditional TV; and
·
plug-and-play Internet video devices that easily transfer
Internet content to the high-definition television (HDTV) screen.
The lynchpin in this new entertainment universe is a
gateway that displays video content on the television screen that has been
distributed over the Internet. Today satellite providers are offering this
type of feature in their set top boxes (STBs). Insight’s
research suggests that providing simplified access to Internet video will
soon become that basic function required of all home entertainment devices.
We recognize that the term set top box connotes a service provider,
such as a cable or satellite company; however, we see the potential of the
set top box integrated into a whole range of consumer electronic devices.
This study looks at what it takes to participate in the
next generation of video entertainment. According to our research, the new
set top box capabilities could be integrated into a plethora of
consumer-oriented entertainment devices. The most important capability
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Market Segmentation
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- Broadband Residential Subscribers
- Entertainment Spending
Cable, Satellite, RBOC TV
Box Office
Home Video
Video Game
- Cable TV Revenue by Source
Install
Subscription
Advertising
Home Shopping
High Speed Data
Voice Telephony
- Satellite TV Revenue by Source
Basic
Premium
Pay-Per-View
- Devices Installed Base
Cable STBs
Telco STBs
Satellite STBs
Consumer Devices
PCs Connected to TVs
- Devices Shipments
Cable STBs
Telco STBs
Satellite STBs
Consumer Devices
PCs Connected to TVs
- Internet Video Revenue
Video-On-Demand
- Cable
- Telco
- Satellite
- Consumer Device
- PC
Advertising
- Television
- Telco and Cable
By Segment
- Video-On-Demand
- Advertising
Broadcast TV
- Ad Supported
- Content
Movie Producers
Satellite
Telco TV
- Ad Supported
- Content
Cable Providers
- Ad Supported
- Content
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Table of Contents
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Chapter I
Executive Summary
1.1 An Industry on the Cusp of Change
1.2 Changing Business Models
1.2.1
The Players
1.3 Internet Video Device — The Next Set Top Box
1.4 Market Forecast
Chapter II
Introduction
2.1 An Industry on the Cusp of Change
2.1.1
The Threat of Emerging Technologies
2.1.2
Drivers of the Future of the Entertainment Industry
2.1.3
New Models of the Industry
Chapter III
Consumer Trends
3.1 Consumer Trends Visible Amid Many Choices
3.2 TV Screen Dominant and Becoming More So
3.3 High Definition TV
3.4 Entertainment Spending
3.5 What Consumers Want – More Content
3.6 When Consumers Want It – Time Shifting
3.7 Where Consumers Want It – Mobile
3.8 Impact of the Internet
Chapter IV
Industry Roles and Players
4.1 Production, Aggregation, and Distribution
Segments of the Entertainment Industry
4.1.1
Combining Production, Aggregation, and Distribution
4.2 Revenue Streams
4.2.1
Advertising
4.2.2
Importance of Ratings
4.2.3
Advertising in the New Distribution Channels
4.2.4
Syndication
4.2.5
Paid Content
4.2.5.1 Consumer Paid Services
4.2.5.2 One-Time Viewing vs. Owning the Content
4.2.6
Revenue from Aggregators and Distribution Channels
4.3 Movie Producers
4.3.1
The Threats of Different Types of Distribution
4.3.2
Impact of Video and DVDs
4.3.3
Changing Release Windows
4.3.4
Impact of Changes in Marketing Tactics
4.4 Television
4.4.1
Golden Age of Television
4.4.2
Rise of CATV
4.4.3
Television Advertising
4.4.4
Television Content: Internet and VOD
4.5 Cable TV
4.5.1
The Rise of the Cable Channels
4.5.2
Cable Take Share from Broadcast Television
4.5.3
Cable TV Reaches Maturity
4.5.4
Cable TV Revenue Stream
4.5.5
New Services Require Capital
4.6 Satellite
4.6.1
Enter DBS
Chapter V
Internet Video
5.1 A New Distribution Channel
5.2 Internet Video Distribution – Streaming and
Downloading
5.3 Advantages of the Internet
5.4 Internet Aggregators
5.4.1
Music Aggregators
5.4.2
Movie Aggregators
5.4.3
Broadcast Television
5.4.4
Other Potential Aggregators
Chapter VI
The Next Set Top Box
6.1 Developing an Ecosystem
6.2 Internet Video Device Specifications
6.2.1
Plug-and-Play Devices
6.2.2
Remote Controls and Program Guides
6.3 Likely Platforms for An Internet Video Device
6.3.1
Satellite
6.3.2
IPTV VOD
6.3.3
Cable VOD
6.3.4
PC
6.3.5
Consumer Electronic Devices
6.4 Imagine the Possibilities
Chapter VII
Market Forecast
7.1 Overview of the Market
7.2 Forecast Overview
7.3 Device Forecast
7.3.1
Satellite Devices
7.3.2
Cable Devices
7.3.3
Telco TV
7.3.4
Consumer Devices
7.3.5
PCs Connected to TVs
7.4 Internet Video Revenue Forecast
7.4.1
Advertising
7.4.2
Revenue from VOD
7.4.2.1 Television Producers
7.4.2.2 Movie Producers
7.4.2.3 Satellite
7.4.2.4 Telco TV
7.4.2.5 Cable
7.5 Conclusion
TABLE OF FIGURES
Chapter I
I-1 Internet Video Devices
Installed Base, 2008-2012
I-2 Internet Video Revenue,
2008-2013
Chapter III
III-1 Average Hours Spent Watching Television
per Year, 2001-2006
III-2 Adoption Rate of Consumer Electronic
Devices
III-3 HDTV Signal Reception
III-4 Per Capita Spending on Different Types
of Entertainment, 2001-2006
III-5 US Homes with DVR, 2001-2006
III-6 Various Types of Devices Owned by
American Consumers, 2006
III-7 Frequency of Internet Video Watching,
2007
Chapter IV
IV-1 US Viewer Reaction to Streaming
Advertising, 2007
IV-2 US Viewer Reaction to Streaming
Advertising, by Age Group 2007
IV-3 Movie Revenue Distribution, 2006
IV-4 Movie Revenue Stream, 1997-2006
IV-5 Shrinking First Run Movie Release Window,
2001-2006
IV-6 Subscribers to Online DVD Rental
Services, 1999-2007
IV-7 Audience Share by Programming Source,
1980-2005
IV-8 Basic Cable Subscribers, 1975-2006
IV-9 Cable TV Revenue Sources, 2001 and 2006
IV-10 Capital Expenditures by Top Seven MSOs by Category,
2001-2006
IV-11 Cost Centers of Capital Expenditures, 2001 and 2006
IV-12 US Satellite Television Subscribers, 2001-2006
IV-13 US Satellite Subscription Television Revenue,
2001-2006
Chapter V
V-1 US Residential Broadband Subscriber
Growth, 2007-2012
V-2 Content Choices for Online Videos,
2007
Chapter VII
VII-1 Installed Base of Internet Video Devices,
2008-2013
VII-2 Internet Video Device Shipments, 2008-2013
VII-3 Internet Video Market Share, 2008 and 2013
VII-4 Internet Video Revenue, by Segment, 2008-2013
VII-5 Video-on-Demand Market Share, by Segment, 2008
and 2013
VII-6 Internet Video Revenue for Broadcast
Television, 2008-2013
VII-7 Internet Video Revenue for Movie Producers,
2008-2013
VII-8 Internet Video Revenue for Satellite
Providers, 2008-2013
VII-9 Internet Video Revenue for Telco TV Providers,
2008-2013
VII-10 Internet Video Revenue for Cable Providers, 2008-2013
TABLE OF TABLES
Chapter III
III-1 Digital Television Formats
III-2 Individual Consumer Spending Levels as a
Percentage of Total Personal Spending, 2006
III-3 Population by Age of Head of Household,
1995-2010
III-4 Broadcast Participation in Cable
Production, 1992 and 2007
III-5 Cable Network Monthly Carriage Fees
Charged to Cable Operators, 2001-2006
III-6 Internet Users Who Watch Videos Online,
2007
Chapter IV
IV-1 Revenue Sources for Selected Popular
Movies, 1975-2007
IV-2 Broadcast TV Industry Revenues from
Advertising, 2001-2006
IV-3 Impact of Recording Devices on Television
Audience, 1980-2006
IV-4 Cable TV Revenue Sources, 2001-2006
Chapter VI
VI-1 Features of the Internet Video Device
Chapter VII
VII-1 Features of the Internet Video Device
VII-2 Installed Base of Internet Video Devices,
2008-2013
VII-3 Internet Video Device Shipments, 2008-2013
VII-4 Internet Video Revenue, by Segment, 2008-2013
VII-5 Internet Video Revenue for Broadcast
Television, 2008-2013
VII-6 Internet Video Revenue for Satellite
Providers, 2008-2013
VII-7 Internet Video Revenue for Telco TV Providers,
2008-2013
VII-8 Internet Video Revenue for Telco and Cable
Providers, 2008-2013
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