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US Wireless & Wireline Voice: Threats and Opportunities, 2013-2018

 

a market research report

Report Excerpt
Table of Contents
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Market Segmentation

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Download the Free Executive Summary

Voice calling has shifted from wireline to wireless services over the past decade.  From low penetration rates in the 1990s, wireless subscriber penetration has exceeded the total US population, while wireline access lines continue to be disconnected at a ten percent annual rate.   Given this market dynamic, it is critical for service providers to retain their customer base and the cash flow generated by over 300 million mobile users.  Maintaining profitably will require a raft of innovations centered about service bundles and streamlining operations.  Preserving wireline customers and migrating them to wireless, advanced data, conferencing, and video services is critical to service provider’s survival.  This study provides a comprehensive analysis of US voice services marketplace, including details by carrier, subscription plans, subscriber trends, pricing bundles, and minutes of use.  The report provides five year forecasts of revenues, units, and pricing.


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    Report Excerpt

    1.1 Introduction

    Voice telecommunications services have been the bedrock of the industry since the telephone was invented by Alexander Graham Bell in 1870s.  Voice services over fixed copper lines defined communications services as we know it today, while familiar terms such as “dialing,” “ring-tone,” and “call forwarding”—which are only meaningful in context with copper networks and rotary phones—are loosely used out of this context to describe wireless cell phones features and capabilities.  What smartphone comes with a rotary dial?  Voice calls are made with alacrity on either wired or wireless phones, so it is not the comparison of which device is chosen, but the combined usage and trends around voice communications that is of interest to us in this report.

    In a US telecommunications services industry that will exceed $500 billion in annual revenues in 2013, voice services—both wireline and wireless—constitute over one-third of the industry revenues.  Despite its long legacy and stable revenue flow, voice calling has finally peaked and is likely to decline going forward.  The familiar time division multiplexing (TDM) method of transmitting and receiving independent signals over a common signal path by means of synchronized switches at each end of the transmission line has run its course in the business, and now packet or IP-based transmission formats are taking over.  Over the past decade, voice usage, as measured in calls and minutes of use, has risen modestly, but calling has shifted from wireline to IP and wireless services, causing a rapid drop in wireline TDM voice services.  From low penetration rates in the 1990s, wireless subscriber penetration now exceeds the entire US population, as everyone seems to have a cell phone—some have multiple, and families have more cell phones around the home than family members to use them.  Wireline access lines (TDM based) are being disconnected at .................

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    Market Segmentation

     

    FORECAST: 2013-2018

    Voice Services (Wireline, Wireless)
        Revenues by Service: Wireless, Wireline
        Revenues by Sales Channel: Retail, Wholesale
        Usage: Lines, Subscribers, MOUs
        ARPU: Lines, Subscribers, MOUs

    Wireline Services
        Voice Service Revenue by Segment: Residential and Business
        Voice Service Revenue by Technology: Legacy Voice vs Interconnected VoIP
        End-User Switched Access Lines
        Interconnected VoIP Subscriptions/Lines
        Wireline Voice Penetration in US Households
        Wireline Voice ARPU

    Wireless Services
        Phone and Connected Device Service Revenues
        Contract Type Revenues: Post-Paid, Pre-Paid
        Subscribers: Phone (Voice, Data), Connected Device (Data only)
        Subscriber ARPU
        Contract Type ARPU: Post-Paid, Pre-Paid
        Connected Device ARPU
        Service Revenue by Application: Voice and Data
        Service ARPU by Application: Voice and Data
        Voice Call Minutes of Use
        Data Volume (Terabytes)
        Subscribers by Device Type: Feature Phones, Smartphones, Connected Devices
        Data Usage by Device Type: Feature Phones, Smartphones, Connected Table
        Penetration by Device Type: Feature Phones, Smartphones, Connected Devices
        Text Message Revenues, Volumes, ARPU

    HISTORICAL, 2000-2013
        US Telecommunications Market Share by Provider Type
        US Wireline, Wireless Penetration
        US Voice Service Revenue
        US Voice Call Volumes
        International Telephone US-Billed Revenue and ARPU
        International Voice Call Volumes
        US Basic Cable Phone Subscribers
        Switched Access and VoIP Market Share
        US Switched Access Lines and VoIP Unit Market Share
        US VoIP and TDM Market Share by Revenue
        US Wireless Subscribers/Connections
        Mobile-Cellular Penetration
        US Wireless Subscriber Net Adds
        US Wireless Voice Minutes per Subscriber
        US Total Wireless Voice MOUs
        Text Message Volume
        US Smartphone Market Share by Operating System
        Smartphone Penetration
         US Mobile Data Traffic Growth
        US Wireless Revenue by Service
        CAPEX per Dollar of Incremental Data Revenue
        US Household Consumption and Telecommunications Expenditures
        US Household Monthly Telecommunications Service Spending


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    Table of Contents

     

    Chapter I
    EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
    1.1   Introduction
    1.2   Current Voice Market
    1.3   Market Forecast Summary

    Chapter 2
    WIRELINE AND WIRELESS SERVICE TRENDS
    2.1   Rise of the Internet
    2.2   Wireline to VoIP Migration
    2.3   Wireline to Wireless Migration
    2.4   Wireless Voice Peaking
    2.5   Wireless Data Access
    2.6   Challenges for Wireless Industry

    Chapter 3
    MAJOR PLAYERS AND MARKET SHARES
    3.1   Tier 1: Duopoly Verizon & AT&T
    3.2   Tier 2 Wireless Companies : Sprint / T-Mobile
    3.3   Creation of the New No.3 in Wireless
    3.4   CenturyLink
    3.5   Telecom Market Dynamics

    Chapter IV
    VOICE REVENUE RETENTION AND HARVEST
    4.1   Protecting the Base
    4.2   Exploring New Opportunities

    Chapter 5
    MARKET FORECASTS
    5.1   Methodology
    5.2   Telecommunications and Voice Trends
    5.3   Wireline Services Trends
    5.4   Wireless Services Trends
    5.5   Conclusion

    Table of Figures

    Chapter I
    I-1    US Telecommunications Revenue Compositions
    I-2    US Voice Service Revenue, 2013-2018

    Chapter II
    II-1    US Voice Service Revenue, 2005-2012
    II-2    US Telecommunications Revenue Compositions
    II-3    US Wireline, Wireless Penetration, 1988-2012
    II-4    US Local Telecommunications Market Share, 1996-2011
    II-5    International Telephone US-Billed Revenue and ARPU
    II-6    International Voice Call Volumes, 2005-2012
    II-7    US Basic Cable Phone Subscribers, 1998-2012
    II-8    Switched Access and VoIP Market Share, 1Q10
    II-9    US Switched Access Lines and VoIP Unit Market Share
    II-10  US VoIP and TDM Market Share by Revenue
    II-11 US Voice Call Volumes, 2004-2011
    II-12  US Household Telephone Status, 2008-2013
    II-13  US Wireless Subscribers/Connections, 1990-2012
    II-14  Mobile-Cellular Penetration, 2013
    II-15  US Wireless Subscriber Net Adds, 2Q2010-2Q2013
    II-16  US Wireless Penetration Rate vs. Wireless Subscriber Growth Rate
    II-17  US Major Wireless Carriers EBITDA Margin, 3Q11-2Q13
    II-18  US Wireless Voice Minutes per Subscriber per Month
    II-19  US Total Wireless Voice MOUs, 2005-2012
    II-20  Total Text Message Volume and Text Messages per Subscribers
    II-21  Global Apple iPhone Sales, 2007-2012
    II-22  US Smartphone Market Share by Operating System
    II-23  Smartphone Penetration, 2009-2013
    II-24  North America Mobile Data Growth – Cisco VNI
    II-25  US Mobile Data Growth, 2010-2018
    II-26  US Wireless Monthly ARPU by Service
    II-27  US Wireless Revenue by Service, 2006-2012
    II-28  LTE Coverage of the Big 4 National Carriers, 2010-2014
    II-29  Cisco North America Mobile Data Forecast
    II-30  Spectrum Holding per Million Subscribers by Carriers
    II-31  Mobile Wireless Provider Spectrum Holdings by Band
    II-32  Wireless Data Revenue and Traffic Growth Rate and Unit Revenue
    II-33  CAPEX per Dollar of Incremental Data Revenue
    II-34  OTT Messaging Applications Interfaces
    II-35  Whatsapp Monthly Active Subscribers and Total Messages
    II-36  US Household Total Consumption Expenditures Growth vs. Telecom Growth
    II-37  US Household Monthly Telecommunications Service Spending

    Chapter III
    III-1  US Wireless Market Share
    III-2  AT&T U-verse Revenue, 1Q2012-2Q2013
    III-3  US Telecommunication Carriers Capital Expenditure
    III-4  CenturyLink Revenue vs Total Liabilities

    Chapter IV
    IV-1 Wireline Voice ARPMin, 2005-2012
    IV-2  US Video Subscribers Net Adds, 2Q 2010 – 2Q 2013
    IV-3  US Broadband Internet Usage by Speeds and Technology
    IV-4  US Home Broadband and Dial-up Adoption Trends
    IV-5  Global M2M Connections by Technology

    Chapter V
    V-1 US Voice Service Revenue, 2013-2018
    V-2  US Wireline, Wireless, Voice and Data Revenue
    V-3  Wireline Voice Penetration in US Households, 2012-2018

    Table of Tables

    Chapter II
    II-1  AT&T Wireline Voice EBITDA Estimates,
    II-2  US Wireless Carriers 4G LTE Coverage as of October 2013
    II-3  Prepaid Smartphone Plan Comparison

    Chapter III
    III-1  US Top Four Telecom Carriers Comparison
    III-2  CenturyLink Revenue and EBITDA, 2008-2012

    Chapter IV
    IV-1 Voice Plans, Rates
    IV-2 US Mobile Data Network Speed

    Chapter V
    V-1    US Voice Service Revenue, 2013-2018
    V-2    US Voice Call Volumes in Minutes of Use, 2013-2018
    V-3    US Wireline, Wireless, Voice and Data Revenue, 2013-2018
    V-4    US Wireline Voice Service Revenue, 2013-2018
    V-5    US Wireline Voice Service Revenue by Segment, 2013-2018
    V-6    US Wireline Voice Service Revenue, Legacy Voice vs Interconnected VoIP
    V-7    US End-User Switched Access Lines, 2013-2018
    V-8    US Interconnected VoIP Subscriptions/Lines, 2013-2018
    V-9    US Voice Access Lines (Including Interconnected VoIP), 2013-2018
    V-10  US Wireline Voice Monthly ARPU (per Line), 2013-2018
    V-11  US Wireless Service Revenues by Plan Type: Phone, Connected Device
    V-12  US Wireless Phone Service Revenue by Contract Type: Post-Paid, Pre-Paid
    V-13  US Wireless Connected Device Service Revenue by Sales Channel: Retail, Wholesale
    V-14  US Wireless Subscribers by Plan Type: Phone, Connected Device
    V-15  US Wireless Phone Subscribers by Contract Type
    V-17  Total US Wireless ARPU by Plan Type: Phone, Connected Device, 2013-2018
    V-18  US Wireless Phone ARPU by Contract Type: Post-Paid, Pre-Paid
    V-19  US Wireless Connected Device ARPU by Sales Channel
    V-20  US Wireless Service Revenues by Application: Voice and Data
    V-21  US Wireless ARPU by Application: Voice and Data
    V-22  US Wireless Voice Call Minutes of Use, 2013-2018
    V-23  US Wireless Voice Monthly Minutes of Use per Phone Subscriber
    V-24  US Wireless Data Monthly Volume, 2013-2018
    V-25  US Smartphone and Retail Connected Device Subscribers
    V-26  US Smartphone and Retail Connected Device Data Usage per Month per Subscriber
    V-27  US Wireless Penetration by Device, 2013-2018
    V-28  US Text Message Forecast: Revenue, Volume, ARPU


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    Pricing Information

     


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