|
|
|
The Market for Wireless Intelligent Networks
1997-2002
a market research report
|
|
Wireless war is in the air--and competition is becoming
even more deadly as new PCS entrants join cellular
carriers to fight for a piece of the market. Service
providers need new weapons, and they need them fast, if
they expect to survive into the next century.
IN technology offers such a competitive edge. By
separating call processing intelligence from the switch,
INs promise reduced service provider dependence on
switch-generic features. New services can be created on
distributed platforms across the network, much faster and
at substantial cost savings. Improved methods of fraud
reduction and easier mobility management ( with its
essential issues of number and service portability) will
further benefit carriers.
These IN-enabled features may just be the key factor
which allows service providers to differentiate
themselves and thus attract a larger customer base,
stimulate airtime, and ultimately increase revenue.
Insight predicts total IN-related service provider
revenue will grow from $2.8 billion to over $22.4 billion
in 2002. The attractive nature of INs to carriers also
means the creation of a lucrative market for
infrastructure vendors. However, the migration of
intelligence from the switch towards the subscriber may
prove to be a double-edged sword, and ultimately present
a threat to vendors’ traditional market dominance.
“The Market for Intelligent Networks” is the
comprehensive source for understanding the implications
of IN technology usage in North American wireless
networks. It provides an overview of wireless IN issues,
builds an adjustable model to forecast industry revenue,
and profiles key industry participants.
|
|
|
Report Excerpt
|
|
Background
Over the past dozen years no segment of
telecommunications has grown faster, or shown more
willingness to innovate, than wireless. Cellular has gone
from a status symbol for upper management to a common
household item in a little over ten years--and digital
PCS services are expected to only increase the velocity
that ubiquitous tetherless communications weaves itself
into our everyday lives. With its ability to mold our
expectations about the future of communication, wireless
has captured our imagination
in ways that wireline communications never could.
Moreover, with its newer infrastructure and smaller
subscriber base, wireless is bringing solutions online
faster than wireline. Thus, if we would understand how
all of telecom is going to change, we begin where the
pace of innovation is faster: the wireless network.
In both wireline and wireless networks, Intelligent
Network (IN) architecture separates call processing
intelligence and feature functionality from network
switches, placing that intelligence and functionality in
platforms spread across the network. The call processing
intelligence is sometimes referred to as service logic.
An IN infrastructure typically involves service logic on
network platforms, an out-of-band signaling system, and
IN-capable software in the network switch. With this
infrastructure in place, service providers, end users and
third parties can, in theory, create and modify services
independently of switch vendors.
The advantages of extending this architecture to wireless
networks are similar to the advantages of IN in a
landline network:
- reduced service provider dependence on switch generic
availability
for features and services;
- cost savings by having multiple applications reside on
one platform
and sharing resources;
- rapid creation and deployment of services; and
- allows service providers to create differentiating
services.
There are additional advantages to extending IN
architecture to wireless networks, including:
- facilitation of mobility management functions;
- reduced fraud; and
- facilitation of interoperability with wireline
networks.
In this study, Insight defines Wireless Intelligent
Networks as any architecture which separates the service
logic and/or feature functionality from the network
switch. Thus, certain non-standard implementations
including Enhanced Services Platforms without Signaling
System #7 (SS7) communications capabilities, or various
non-SS7 connections among platforms, will be considered
to be wireless INs.
Using IN technology in wireless networks benefits both
service providers and subscribers. Wireless carriers
benefit from the ease of mobility management, as well as
from improved fraud control and reduced costs.
Subscribers can take advantage of such wireless IN
services as Voice Mail, Short Message Service, Unified
Messaging, wireless Internet/Intranet access, Voice
Activated Dialing, Personal Number Service, Virtual
Private Network and Calling Party Pays. Debit card and
prepaid services are also IN-based services.
Mobility
Wireless' greatest impact on wireline has been to
redefine the notion of mobility. Today, service providers
and vendors talk about
three kinds of mobility:
Terminal mobility -- when a handset or wireless device
will work in
various networks and geographic locations.
Personal mobility -- the concept of separating a person
from a device.
In Global System for Mobile Communication (GSM) networks,
for
example, one device can be used by different people with
the use of
Subscriber Identity Module (SIM) cards.
Service mobility -- when a person's feature set and
service profile
follows him to various networks and geographic locations.
In our study, terminal mobility and personal mobility are
treated the same. In North American cellular networks,
subscribers can continue to make and receive calls as
they move across systems and locations. For the new PCS
networks, terminal/personal mobility is limited by the
availability of networks using the same technology and
spectrum.
The degree of mobility subscribers want is another
question. The success of American Personal Communications (APC) in the Washington, DC metropolitan area has shown
that at least a certain amount of subscribers don't
require mobility outside their service area, or are
willing to subscribe to a separate service to obtain that
mobility. The Personal Number Service offerings of many
service providers can be seen as a type of interim step
before achieving full mobility, and satellite service can
also be seen as
a way to increase terminal/personal mobility.
Service mobility goes beyond the concept of
terminal/personal mobility in that subscribers would use
their own grade of service no matter where they were.
This means that service profiles would be available to
visited networks, which would require that Home Location
Registers (HLRs)--the databases that contain each
subscriber's profile--be moved off switches and out onto
IN platforms along with concomitant upgrades to the
signaling networks to accommodate the added traffic.
Insight believes that by 1999, service providers will
have completed the process of moving the HLR
functionality off of the switch and connecting them via a
signaling link, most probably SS7. And by 2002, we
believe that many of the platforms providing enhanced
services will be connected to the network switch via an
Intranet or WAN-like network, which will handle both
transport and signaling.
Thus, by the end of our forecast period we will begin to
see a bifurcation of IN resources: voice-associated
functions are likely to stay closely coupled to the
switch, but SCPs used to deploy data-related services
(such as Short Message Service, Unified Messaging, or
Debit cards) can be placed anywhere that a SS7 data
connection can be maintained.
While the public network will have the very large Service
Control Points (SCPs) and database functions that the
private network may not have, the public and private
networks will be similar in their reliance on the
Enhanced Services Platforms, and use similar networks to
connect the platforms. With this architecture, a
variation of a Virtual Private Network service is
possible, where a common set of features would reside on
platforms based in the enterprise network rather than the
public network. The public network could route corporate
users' calls to enterprise servers rather than public
network-based Enhanced Services Platforms. This trend is
troubling to carriers since it forces us to raise the
question of where--and with whom--the network's
intelligence will reside.
Where Will the Intelligence Reside?
According to IN architecture, service logic, data and
media resources reside in the network on IN platforms,
and enhanced services are provided when those resources
are knitted together. In reality, service logic, data and
media resources can reside wherever it is most economical
and efficient for them to reside. In GSM architecture,
some of the functions normally performed in the network
are contained in SIMs or smart cards. Similar
intelligence could reside on Personal Digital Assistants
equipped with wireless communications capabilities. Or a
service such as Voice Activated Dialing may be more
economically and efficiently provided in a handset
(rather than from the network) so that transmission of
data won't clog the network.
In fact, all the examples we have just cited are traffic
engineering problems, and as such are a function of the
price of the bandwidth needed to transmit the
intelligence to where it is needed. Bandwidth, while
becoming less expensive, is still not free. The cost of
bandwidth may push intelligence further towards the edges
of the public network and closer to the subscriber.
In addition to the cost of bandwidth, the difficulty of
creating services for IN platforms may also push
intelligence out to the edges of the public network.
Service creation for IN platforms remains cumbersome,
because most platforms are not open or standards-based.
If IN platforms don't become open and standard, much of
the intelligence may move to the edge of the network to
workstation-based platforms and servers which are open,
programmable and less expensive than the large fault
tolerant platforms typically used for IN applications.
And if the complexity and cost of adding SS7
communications capabilities to platforms remains a dark
art, applications developers will likely begin to turn to
new Internet-based applications which don't require SS7
capabilities to deliver their services.
If the intelligence moves toward the network's edge, and
more and more wireless IN services become part of
corporate Intranets, what are the implications for the
infrastructure providers and platform vendors that have
thus far dominated the market?
Back to Top
|
|
Market Segmentation
|
|
|
- IN Platform System
- ESPs
- SCPs
- Total Platform
- Systems Integration
- ESP Components
- Applications
- Hardware
- Middleware
- Market Segment
- Cellular and PCS
- Resellers/Service Bureaus
- Satellite
- SMR
- Paging/Narrowband PCS
- Enterprise Network
Back to Top
|
|
Table of Contents
|
|
|
Chapter I
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1.1 Background
1.2 Mobility
1.3 Where Will Intelligence Reside?
1.4 Market Dominance of Infrastructure Providers Will Not
Diminish
1.5 Forecasts and Analysis
Chapter II
BACKGROUND
2.1 Introduction
2.2 Wireless Intelligent Networks
2.2.1 IN Architecture
2.2.2 IN Terminology and Definitions
2.2.3 IN Technology in Wireless Nets
2.3 Wireless Market Segments Background
2.3.1 Paging/Narrowband PCS
2.3.2 Analog Cellular
2.3.3 Digital Networks
2.3.4 Specialized Mobile Radio
2.3.5 Satellite Networks
2.3.6 Mobile Data Networks
2.3.7 Resellers and Service Bureaus
2.3.8 Enterprise Networks
2.3.9 Wireless Local Loop
2.4 Market Forces Driving WINs
2.4.1 Fraud Control
2.4.2 Operational Efficiencies
2.4.3 Mobility Management
2.4.4 Deregulation & Competition
2.5 Standards Activity
2.5.1 Global System for Mobile (GSM)
2.5.2 The TIA’s Subcommittee TR-45.2 - WIN Task
Group
2.5.3 FPLMTS (Future Public Land Mobile Telecom Systems)
Chapter III
OVERVIEW OF IN TECHNOLOGY IN NORTH AMERICAN NETWORK ARCHITECTURES
3.1 IN Technology Overview of Wireless Market Segments
3.1.1 Paging
3.1.2 Analog Cellular Networks
3.1.3 Digital Networks
3.1.4 Specialized Mobile Radio (SMR)
3.1.5 Satellite Networks
3.1.6 Mobile Data Networks
3.1.7 Resellers and Service Bureaus
3.1.8 Enterprise Networks
3.1.9 Wireline Replacement
3.2 A Generic Model
3.3 Analysis
3.4 Where Will Intelligence Reside?
Chapter IV
APPLICATIONS FOR SERVICE PROVIDERS AND SUBSCRIBERS
4.1 Service Provider Applications
4.1.1 Fraud Reduction
4.1.2 Churn Reduction
4.1.3 Usage Stimulation
4.1.4 Reducing Costs
4.2 Applications for Subscribers
4.2.1 Custom Calling Services
4.2.2 Caller ID
4.2.3 Debit Card/Prepaid Service
4.2.4 Voice Mail
4.2.5 Short Message Service
4.2.6 Unified Messaging
4.2.7 Wireless Internet/Intranet Access
4.2.8 Voice Activated Dialing
4.2.9 Personal Number Service
4.2.10 Call ng Party Pays/First Incoming Minute Free
4.2.11 Virtual Private Network
4.2.12 Toll Free Calling
4.2.13 Global Roaming
4.2.14 Vertical Applications
Chapter V
ISSUES AND TRENDS
5.1 The Requirement for Full Mobility
5.2 Wireless Service Provider Portability
5.3 What Platform Vendors Need to be Successful
5.4 The Transition to Windows NT
5.5 Market Dominance of Infrastructure Providers
5.6 The Significance of the TIA’s WIN Standards
5.7 The Infrastructure Needed to Support Message
Notification
5.8 The Effect of the Internet on Wireless Intelligent
Networks
5.9 Smart Phones and Personal Digital Assistants (PDAs)
Chapter VI
VENDORS, SERVICE PROVIDERS AND ORGANIZATIONS
6.1 Vendors
6.1.1 AccessLine Technologies, Inc.
6.1.2 Acorn Communications
6.1.3 AG Communication Systems
6.1.4 Alcatel
6.1.5 Aldiscon
6.1.6 Atlas Telecom
6.1.7 Bellcore
6.1.8 Boston Technology
6.1.9 Brite Voice Systems, Inc.
6.1.10 Celcore, Inc.
6.1.11 Centigram Comm. Corporation
6.1.12 COMSAT RSI Plexsys
6.1.13 Comverse Technology, Inc.
6.1.14 Dialogic Corporation
6.1.15 Digital Equipment Corporation
6.1.16 DSC Communications
6.1.17 Glenayre
6.1.18 GNP Computers
6.1.19 GTE Telecommunication Services
6.1.20 Hewlett-Packard Company
6.1.21 IEX Corporation
6.1.22 Intelect, Inc.
6.1.23 InterVoice, Inc.
6.1.24 Lucent Technologies
6.1.25 Motorola Cellular Infrastructure Group
6.1.26 Natural Microsystems
6.1.27 Nortel
6.1.28 Octel Communications Corp.
6.1.29 Open Development Corp.
6.1.30 Priority Call Management
6.1.31 PCSI
6.1.32 Phoenix Wireless Group, Inc.
6.1.33 Precision Systems Inc.
6.1.34 Sema Group Telecoms
6.1.35 Stratus Computer, Inc.
6.1.36 Summa Four, Inc.
6.1.37 Tandem Computers, Inc.
6.1.38 TeleCommunications Systems
6.1.39 Texas Instruments
6.1.40 TPS Call Sciences
6.1.41 Trillium Digital Systems, Inc.
6.1.42 Unwired Planet Inc.
6.1.43 Versant Object Technology
6.2 Service Providers
6.2.1 Aerial Communications
6.2.2 AirTouch Communications
6.2.3 Ameritech Cellular
6.2.4 ARDIS
6.2.5 AT&T Wireless Services, Inc.
6.2.6 BCE Mobile Communications Inc.
6.2.7 Bell Atlantic NYNEX Mobile
6.2.8 BellSouth Mobility DCS
6.2.9 Cantel
6.2.10 COMSAT Personal Comm.
6.2.11 Geotek Communications, Inc.
6.2.12 GTE Wireless
6.2.13 Illuminet
6.2.14 Microcell
6.2.15 NextWave
6.2.16 North American Cellular Network
6.2.17 Omnipoint Communications Inc.
6.2.18 PageNet
6.2.19 RAM Mobile Data
6.2.20 Sprint PCS
6.2.21 Western Wireless
6.3 Organizations
6.3.1 Universal Wireless Comm. Consortium
Chapter VII
FORECASTS AND ANALYSIS
7.1 Baseline Assumptions
7.1.1 N. Wireless Subscribers
7.1.2 Price Per Minute
7.1.3 Call Volume
7.2 Vendor Revenue
7.2.1 Service Nodes, Adjuncts, Intelligent Peripherals
and Enhanced Services Platforms
7.2.2 Service Control Points
7.2.3 Service Creation Environments
7.2.4 Hardware and Software Components of Platforms
7.2.5 Network Systems Integration
7.2.6 Total Vendor Revenue
7.3 IN-Related Wireless Service Provider Revenue
7.3.1 Penetration Rates
7.3.2 Feature/Service Revenue
7.3.3 North American Annual Feature/Service Revenue
7.3.4 Additional Airtime Revenue
7.3.5 Annual Revenue by Feature
7.3.6 Roaming Revenue
7.3.7 Total IN-related Service Provider Revenue
7.4 Total Wireless INRevenue
7.5 Analysis
Table of Figures
Chapter I
I-1 1997 Model of WIN Architecture
I-2 2002 Model of WIN Architecture
I-3 Total Vendor Revenue from IN Platforms and Systems Integration, 1997-2002
I-4 Total IN-Related Service Provider Revenue, 1997-2002
I-5 Total Vendor and Service Provider Wireless IN
Revenue, 1997-2002
Chapter III
III-1 1997 Model of WIN Architecture
III-2 1999 Model of WIN Architecture
III-3 2002 Model of WIN Architecture
VII-1 Total North American Wireless Subscribers,
1997-2002 (Millions)
Chapter VII
VII-2 Price Per Minute of Cellular Use, 1997-2002
VII-3 Average Number of Calls Per Day Per Subscriber,
1997-2002
VII-4 Total Cellular and PCS Service Provider Investment
in Enhanced Services Platforms
VII-5 Total Reseller and Service Bureau Investment in
Enhanced Services Platforms, 1997-2002
VII-6 Total Satellite Network Investment in Enhanced
Services Platforms, 1997-2002
VII-7 Total SMR Operator Investment in Enhanced Services Platforms, 1997-2002
VII-8 Total Paging/Narrowband PCS Investment in Enhanced
Services Platforms, 1997-2002
VII-9 Total North American Wireless Investment in
Enhanced Services Platforms, 1997-2002
VII-10 Average Number of Transactions Per Call, 1997-2002
VII-11 Busy Hour Transactions Per Second, 1997-2002
VII-12 Large SCPs Versus Small SCPs Purchased, 1997-2002
VII-13 Investment in Large Versus Small SCPs, 1997-2002
VII-14 1997 Enhanced Services Platform Price Components
VII-15 2002 Enhanced Services Platform Price Components
VII-16 1997 SCP Price Components
VII-17 2002 SCP Price Components
VII-18 Systems Integration Revenue, 1997-2002
VII-19 Total Service Provider Investment by Segment,
1997-2002
VII-20 Estimated Annual Feature/Service Revenue,
1997-2002
VII-21 Estimated Annual Revenue From Additional Usage,
1997-2002
VII-22 Personal Number Revenue
VII-23 Short Message Service Revenue
VII-24 Unified Messaging Revenue
VII-25 Internet/Intranet Access Revenue
VII-26 Voice Mail Revenue
VII-27 Debit Card/Prepaid Revenue
VII-28 Virtual Private Network Revenue
VII-29 Calling Party Pays Revenue
VII-30 Toll Free Calling Revenue
VII-31 Voice Activated Dialing Revenue
VII-32 Total Estimated North American Roamer Revenues
Versus Roamer Revenues Attributable to IN, 1997-2002
VII-33 Total IN-Related Service Provider Revenue,
1997-2002
VII-34 Wireless IN Service Provider Revenues by Type,
1997-2002
VII-35 Total Vendor and Service Provider Wireless IN
Revenue, 1997-2002
VII-36 Wireless IN Service Provider Investment Versus Revenue,
1997-2002
VII-37 Wireless IN Service Provider Investment Versus
Feature Revenue, 1997-2002
Table of Tables
Chapter VII
VII-1 Total US and Canadian Wireless Subscribers,
1997-2002
VII-2 Cellular and PCS Investment in Enhanced Service
Platforms, 1997-2002
VII-3 Reseller and Service Bureau Investment in Enhanced
Service Platforms, 1997-2002
VII-4 Satellite Network Investment in Enhanced Services Platforms, 1997-2002
VII-5 SMR Operator Investment in Enhanced Services
Platforms, 1997-2002
VII-6 Paging/Narrowband PCS Investment in Enhanced
Services Platforms, 1997-2002
VII-7 Enterprise Network Investment in Enhanced Services Platforms, 1997-2002
VII-8 North American Enhanced Services Platform Revenue
by Market Segment, 1997-2002
VII-9 Service Provider Investment In Large and Small SCPs, 1997-2002
VII-10 Total Wireless Service Provider Investment in IN
Platforms and Systems Integration, 1997-2002
VII-11 Estimated Penetration Rates for Selected WIN
Services, 1997 and 2002
VII-12 Estimated Monthly Charges for Selected WIN
Services, 1997 and 2002
VII-13 Estimated Monthly Additional Minutes of Use
Stimulated by Selected IN Features, 2002
VII-14 Total IN-Related Service Provider Revenues
(Segmented), 1997-2002 ($Billions)
Back to Top
|
|
Pricing Information
|
|
|
Hard Copy
Price
$799
Back to Top
|
|
Telecom
Market
Research,
