Description
Voice calling has shifted from wireline to wireless services over the past decade. From low penetration rates in the 1990s, wireless subscriber penetration has exceeded the total US population, while wireline access lines continue to be disconnected at a ten percent annual rate. Given this market dynamic, it is critical for service providers to retain their customer base and the cash flow generated by over 300 million mobile users. Maintaining profitably will require a raft of innovations centered about service bundles and streamlining operations. Preserving wireline customers and migrating them to wireless, advanced data, conferencing, and video services is critical to service provider’s survival. This study provides a comprehensive analysis of US voice services marketplace, including details by carrier, subscription plans, subscriber trends, pricing bundles, and minutes of use. The report provides five year forecasts of revenues, units, and pricing.
Hightlights
Voice calling has shifted from wireline to wireless services over the past decade. From low penetration rates in the 1990s, wireless subscriber penetration has exceeded the total US population, while wireline access lines continue to be disconnected at a ten percent annual rate. Given this market dynamic, it is critical for service providers to retain their customer base and the cash flow generated by over 300 million mobile users. Maintaining profitably will require a raft of innovations centered about service bundles and streamlining operations. Preserving wireline customers and migrating them to wireless, advanced data, conferencing, and video services is critical to service provider’s survival. This study provides a comprehensive analysis of US voice services marketplace, including details by carrier, subscription plans, subscriber trends, pricing bundles, and minutes of use. The report provides five year forecasts of revenues, units, and pricing.
Scope
Voice telecommunications services have been the bedrock of the industry since the telephone was invented by Alexander Graham Bell in 1870s. Voice services over fixed copper lines defined communications services as we know it today, while familiar terms such as “dialing,” “ring-tone,” and “call forwarding”—which are only meaningful in context with copper networks and rotary phones—are loosely used out of this context to describe wireless cell phones features and capabilities. What smartphone comes with a rotary dial? Voice calls are made with alacrity on either wired or wireless phones, so it is not the comparison of which device is chosen, but the combined usage and trends around voice communications that is of interest to us in this report.
In a US telecommunications services industry that will exceed $500 billion in annual revenues in 2013, voice services—both wireline and wireless—constitute over one-third of the industry revenues. Despite its long legacy and stable revenue flow, voice calling has finally peaked and is likely to decline going forward. The familiar time division multiplexing (TDM) method of transmitting and receiving independent signals over a common signal path by means of synchronized switches at each end of the transmission line has run its course in the business, and now packet or IP-based transmission formats are taking over. Over the past decade, voice usage, as measured in calls and minutes of use, has risen modestly, but calling has shifted from wireline to IP and wireless services, causing a rapid drop in wireline TDM voice services. From low penetration rates in the 1990s, wireless subscriber penetration now exceeds the entire US population, as everyone seems to have a cell phone—some have multiple, and families have more cell phones around the home than family members to use them. Wireline access lines (TDM based) are being disconnected at ……………..
http://www.insight-corp.com/sendexec.asp?report=usvoice13&ReportName=US Wireline and Wireless Voice: Threats and Opportunities, 2013-2018
FORECAST: 2013-2018
Voice Services (Wireline, Wireless)
Revenues by Service: Wireless, Wireline
Revenues by Sales Channel: Retail, Wholesale
Usage: Lines, Subscribers, MOUs
ARPU: Lines, Subscribers, MOUs
Wireline Services
Voice Service Revenue by Segment: Residential and Business
Voice Service Revenue by Technology: Legacy Voice vs Interconnected VoIP
End-User Switched Access Lines
Interconnected VoIP Subscriptions/Lines
Wireline Voice Penetration in US Households
Wireline Voice ARPU
Wireless Services
Phone and Connected Device Service Revenues
Contract Type Revenues: Post-Paid, Pre-Paid
Subscribers: Phone (Voice, Data), Connected Device (Data only)
Subscriber ARPU
Contract Type ARPU: Post-Paid, Pre-Paid
Connected Device ARPU
Service Revenue by Application: Voice and Data
Service ARPU by Application: Voice and Data
Voice Call Minutes of Use
Data Volume (Terabytes)
Subscribers by Device Type: Feature Phones, Smartphones, Connected Devices
Data Usage by Device Type: Feature Phones, Smartphones, Connected Table
Penetration by Device Type: Feature Phones, Smartphones, Connected Devices
Text Message Revenues, Volumes, ARPU
HISTORICAL, 2000-2013
US Telecommunications Market Share by Provider Type
US Wireline, Wireless Penetration
US Voice Service Revenue
US Voice Call Volumes
International Telephone US-Billed Revenue and ARPU
International Voice Call Volumes
US Basic Cable Phone Subscribers
Switched Access and VoIP Market Share
US Switched Access Lines and VoIP Unit Market Share
US VoIP and TDM Market Share by Revenue
US Wireless Subscribers/Connections
Mobile-Cellular Penetration
US Wireless Subscriber Net Adds
US Wireless Voice Minutes per Subscriber
US Total Wireless Voice MOUs
Text Message Volume
US Smartphone Market Share by Operating System
Smartphone Penetration
US Mobile Data Traffic Growth
US Wireless Revenue by Service
CAPEX per Dollar of Incremental Data Revenue
US Household Consumption and Telecommunications Expenditures
US Household Monthly Telecommunications Service Spending
Table of Contents
Chapter I
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1.1 Introduction
1.2 Current Voice Market
1.3 Market Forecast Summary
Chapter 2
WIRELINE AND WIRELESS SERVICE TRENDS
2.1 Rise of the Internet
2.2 Wireline to VoIP Migration
2.3 Wireline to Wireless Migration
2.4 Wireless Voice Peaking
2.5 Wireless Data Access
2.6 Challenges for Wireless Industry
Chapter 3
MAJOR PLAYERS AND MARKET SHARES
3.1 Tier 1: Duopoly Verizon & AT&T
3.2 Tier 2 Wireless Companies : Sprint / T-Mobile
3.3 Creation of the New No.3 in Wireless
3.4 CenturyLink
3.5 Telecom Market Dynamics
Chapter IV
VOICE REVENUE RETENTION AND HARVEST
4.1 Protecting the Base
4.2 Exploring New Opportunities
Chapter 5
MARKET FORECASTS
5.1 Methodology
5.2 Telecommunications and Voice Trends
5.3 Wireline Services Trends
5.4 Wireless Services Trends
5.5 Conclusion
List for Tables:
Chapter II
II-1 AT&T Wireline Voice EBITDA Estimates,
II-2 US Wireless Carriers 4G LTE Coverage as of October 2013
II-3 Prepaid Smartphone Plan Comparison
Chapter III
III-1 US Top Four Telecom Carriers Comparison
III-2 CenturyLink Revenue and EBITDA, 2008-2012
Chapter IV
IV-1 Voice Plans, Rates
IV-2 US Mobile Data Network Speed
Chapter V
V-1 US Voice Service Revenue, 2013-2018
V-2 US Voice Call Volumes in Minutes of Use, 2013-2018
V-3 US Wireline, Wireless, Voice and Data Revenue, 2013-2018
V-4 US Wireline Voice Service Revenue, 2013-2018
V-5 US Wireline Voice Service Revenue by Segment, 2013-2018
V-6 US Wireline Voice Service Revenue, Legacy Voice vs Interconnected VoIP
V-7 US End-User Switched Access Lines, 2013-2018
V-8 US Interconnected VoIP Subscriptions/Lines, 2013-2018
V-9 US Voice Access Lines (Including Interconnected VoIP), 2013-2018
V-10 US Wireline Voice Monthly ARPU (per Line), 2013-2018
V-11 US Wireless Service Revenues by Plan Type: Phone, Connected Device
V-12 US Wireless Phone Service Revenue by Contract Type: Post-Paid, Pre-Paid
V-13 US Wireless Connected Device Service Revenue by Sales Channel: Retail, Wholesale
V-14 US Wireless Subscribers by Plan Type: Phone, Connected Device
V-15 US Wireless Phone Subscribers by Contract Type
V-17 Total US Wireless ARPU by Plan Type: Phone, Connected Device, 2013-2018
V-18 US Wireless Phone ARPU by Contract Type: Post-Paid, Pre-Paid
V-19 US Wireless Connected Device ARPU by Sales Channel
V-20 US Wireless Service Revenues by Application: Voice and Data
V-21 US Wireless ARPU by Application: Voice and Data
V-22 US Wireless Voice Call Minutes of Use, 2013-2018
V-23 US Wireless Voice Monthly Minutes of Use per Phone Subscriber
V-24 US Wireless Data Monthly Volume, 2013-2018
V-25 US Smartphone and Retail Connected Device Subscribers
V-26 US Smartphone and Retail Connected Device Data Usage per Month per Subscriber
V-27 US Wireless Penetration by Device, 2013-2018
V-28 US Text Message Forecast: Revenue, Volume, ARPU
List for Figures:
Chapter I,
I-1 US Telecommunications Revenue Compositions
I-2 US Voice Service Revenue, 2013-2018
Chapter II
II-1 US Voice Service Revenue, 2005-2012
II-2 US Telecommunications Revenue Compositions
II-3 US Wireline, Wireless Penetration, 1988-2012
II-4 US Local Telecommunications Market Share, 1996-2011
II-5 International Telephone US-Billed Revenue and ARPU
II-6 International Voice Call Volumes, 2005-2012
II-7 US Basic Cable Phone Subscribers, 1998-2012
II-8 Switched Access and VoIP Market Share, 1Q10
II-9 US Switched Access Lines and VoIP Unit Market Share
II-10 US VoIP and TDM Market Share by Revenue
II-11 US Voice Call Volumes, 2004-2011
II-12 US Household Telephone Status, 2008-2013
II-13 US Wireless Subscribers/Connections, 1990-2012
II-14 Mobile-Cellular Penetration, 2013
II-15 US Wireless Subscriber Net Adds, 2Q2010-2Q2013
II-16 US Wireless Penetration Rate vs. Wireless Subscriber Growth Rate
II-17 US Major Wireless Carriers EBITDA Margin, 3Q11-2Q13
II-18 US Wireless Voice Minutes per Subscriber per Month
II-19 US Total Wireless Voice MOUs, 2005-2012
II-20 Total Text Message Volume and Text Messages per Subscribers
II-21 Global Apple iPhone Sales, 2007-2012
II-22 US Smartphone Market Share by Operating System
II-23 Smartphone Penetration, 2009-2013
II-24 North America Mobile Data Growth – Cisco VNI
II-25 US Mobile Data Growth, 2010-2018
II-26 US Wireless Monthly ARPU by Service
II-27 US Wireless Revenue by Service, 2006-2012
II-28 LTE Coverage of the Big 4 National Carriers, 2010-2014
II-29 Cisco North America Mobile Data Forecast
II-30 Spectrum Holding per Million Subscribers by Carriers
II-31 Mobile Wireless Provider Spectrum Holdings by Band
II-32 Wireless Data Revenue and Traffic Growth Rate and Unit Revenue
II-33 CAPEX per Dollar of Incremental Data Revenue
II-34 OTT Messaging Applications Interfaces
II-35 Whatsapp Monthly Active Subscribers and Total Messages
II-36 US Household Total Consumption Expenditures Growth vs. Telecom Growth
II-37 US Household Monthly Telecommunications Service Spending
Chapter III
III-1 US Wireless Market Share
III-2 AT&T U-verse Revenue, 1Q2012-2Q2013
III-3 US Telecommunication Carriers Capital Expenditure
III-4 CenturyLink Revenue vs Total Liabilities
Chapter IV
IV-1 Wireline Voice ARPMin, 2005-2012
IV-2 US Video Subscribers Net Adds, 2Q 2010 – 2Q 2013
IV-3 US Broadband Internet Usage by Speeds and Technology
IV-4 US Home Broadband and Dial-up Adoption Trends
IV-5 Global M2M Connections by Technology